Name a state thats going to surprise us this November

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Florida, when Trump wins it by 15%.

[holtridge]

Alaska by it's very close margin. It won't determine the election though. It will be called well after the election is called.

[°Leprechaun]

I'll go with North Carolina.

[DS0816]

If we name it it’s not a surprise then is it

Correct.

Given this site…this topic cannot be resisted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV and AZ Trump isn't winning them by 5 pts margins

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

PA, by not actually being in doubt, even if Trump has a good night.

[iceman]

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC but looking at Siena polls that seems remote now

[MarkD]

Alaska

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do think there is a state that’s going to give an Indiana 2008 like results in November,  but I cannot pinpoint certainly which one would be it.

I don't think this is possible with how modern media works. Sure there could be a shock flip, but I think if there is one the state remains competitive in the long run and doesn't just lurch left.

Indiana was able to have a uniquely strong lurch left 2004-->2008 because Obama spent money in the state and McCain didn't; this reflected in County level results where demographically similar counties in IL and OH didn't quite experience the same magnitudes of swings. Then in 2012 when Obama bailed on the state it swung back hard right and voted for Romney by double-digits.

These sorts of regional boost from localized spending are much much smaller if not non-existent today because of increased polarization and the nationalization of media since then.