AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

So if Mark Begich if enters the race for fun, Murk is donzo?

What are the chances moderate Republicans who support Murk would have Begich as their 2nd pick over Tshibaka.

Not much. In a two-way race between a moderate dem and a far-right Republican, the far-right Republican will win (at least in 2022).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

Citation desperately needed here.

It was made a big deal of in the 2008 and 2020 primaries and ended having no effect.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Either way this vote s her over for her election. She needs significant Democratic as well as Republican votes (as there are serious Democratic and Republican candidates aside from her) and this will only make more voters annoyed with her.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1507448076830601216
At this point, I'd actually be pretty shocked if Murkowski loses.

No other democrat has filed so far. If there's not a strong democratic candidate Murk definitely wins.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Will Dems sit this one out to help boost Murkowski?

Why wouldn't they just vote for her if they want to help her?  In Alaska's new election law, it's an open primary with the top four advancing to the general election.

I don’t mean the voters. I meant will there be no Democratic candidates running?

The Democratic State Party Chair said they are trying to recruit a candidate. Idk if they'll be able to though.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I wonder if this abortion drama will make dems less likely to turn out for Murkowski

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

A strong democratic candidate being in the race is bad for Murkowski.
A weak democratic candidate being in the race is good for Murkowski.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murkowski would unironically be better positioned for re-election if she switched parties. She's going to get almost all her votes in November from Democrats, and she would want to boost Dem turnout as much as she can. Multiple polls have her approvals among Republicans in the single digits and have her winning from 5-12% of the Republican vote, which is absolutely DREADFUL.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChooseChesbro/status/1524964451182444544?cxt=HHwWgICg...
The only dem going all in on abortion.

I still think Chesbro is a Murkowski plant. Only way she isn't is if she attacks Murkowski on abortion, thus causing less dems to place her 2nd.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I would say Tshibaka has a floor of at least 47%.
27% (Palin) + 19% (Begich) = 47%. I just don't see any Palin or Begich voters voting for Murkowski over Tshibaka when Murkowski is more moderate than even Sweeney.
In fact the candidates more conservative than Murkowski make up more than 50% of the special election primary vote (though Democrat turnout was terrible). It's gonna be hard for Murk to win.