End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?

[tallguy23]

As of right now, yes. But we're three years away. I wouldn't count out reelection.

[Burke859]

IMO, the main thing that needs to happen for Trump to be re-elected is that the HOUSE needs to go Democratic, but not the Senate.

With the tax bill passed, Trump has a win under his belt that will give workers more money in their paychecks, something that people will notice in a positive way over the next year.  But the tax bill also repealed the OCare mandate, which will drive up premiums, making some kind of OCare reform necessary.  The House as currently constituted will never agree to that, because Paul Ryan and the Freedom Caucus are ideologically opposed to OCare's existence. 

Give the House to the Dems and you've got a legislative body that will pass a watered down version of OCare that can then be taken up by the cynical pragmatists in Mitch McConnell's Senate.  Trump can then take credit for cutting taxes and saving health care reform, similar to the way Bill Clinton ate his vegetables by raising taxes during his first two years in office and then moved to the center with welfare reform the second two years (while claiming that his tax bill was responsible for the good economy by closing the deficit).

The Senate needs to stay in Republican hands though because otherwise we just get stalemate as the Democratic Congress waits Trump out.  Also, a Republican Senate is needed to give confirmation to another SCOTUS Justice should a vacancy arise.  The GOP doesn't need a fight over a SCOTUS seat making abortion an issue during the 2020 election, when they can win on the economy and domestic issue reform.

If I were an RNC strategist right now, I'd be secretly taking a knee on winning the House in 2018 while pouring money into red state Senate races.

[Mike Thick]

Going to go out on a limb here and say yes. People underestimate how nasty the 2020 Democratic primary will be.

[King Lear]

IMO, the main thing that needs to happen for Trump to be re-elected is that the HOUSE needs to go Democratic, but not the Senate.

With the tax bill passed, Trump has a win under his belt that will give workers more money in their paychecks, something that people will notice in a positive way over the next year.  But the tax bill also repealed the OCare mandate, which will drive up premiums, making some kind of OCare reform necessary.  The House as currently constituted will never agree to that, because Paul Ryan and the Freedom Caucus are ideologically opposed to OCare's existence. 

Give the House to the Dems and you've got a legislative body that will pass a watered down version of OCare that can then be taken up by the cynical pragmatists in Mitch McConnell's Senate.  Trump can then take credit for cutting taxes and saving health care reform, similar to the way Bill Clinton ate his vegetables by raising taxes during his first two years in office and then moved to the center with welfare reform the second two years (while claiming that his tax bill was responsible for the good economy by closing the deficit).

The Senate needs to stay in Republican hands though because otherwise we just get stalemate as the Democratic Congress waits Trump out.  Also, a Republican Senate is needed to give confirmation to another SCOTUS Justice should a vacancy arise.  The GOP doesn't need a fight over a SCOTUS seat making abortion an issue during the 2020 election, when they can win on the economy and domestic issue reform.

If I were an RNC strategist right now, I'd be secretly taking a knee on winning the House in 2018 while pouring money into red state Senate races.

This is a very interesting analysis, I’ve always thought their was a realistic scenario where Republicans lose the house, hold the senate, and Trumps still reelected due to the good economy and his massive advantage in the electoral college. I call this the “Obama scenario”, which is quite Ironic considering how much Trump despises him.

[Mr. Smith]

Going to go out on a limb here and say yes. People underestimate how nasty the 2020 Democratic primary will be.

2016 was nasty on the GOP side, 1980 for the GOP wasn't all so smooth either.

2008 was bitter too for Democrats, as was 1960.

2000 and 2016 were the opposite.

If anything, nastier is better...unless it's the incumbent being challenged.

[Illini Moderate]

Many swing voters voted Trump with a "wait and see" attitude. They believed he would mature once in office and possibly shake things up and #draintheswamp. Obviously neither of these have happened, and in many ways his behavior has become even more erratic. At this rate, I don't see him winning reelection.

[Pericles]

Trump will lose re-election if…

- His approval rating stays below 40%.

- The democrats can actually win in a massive landslide during the 2018 mid-term elections. I’m talking winning both houses of congress. I’m not convinced the dems will win either house but we will see what happens.

- The economy looks shaky by summer 2020.

- The democrats nominate a great presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate for 2020. As much as I like Joe Biden, I think his time for the top job has passed. Same for Bernie Sanders. I hope someone with a fantastic message and platform and who is much younger than Trump is nominated. Also, a woman on the ticket (either president or vice president) is critical.

- The most important key to Trump losing re-election is if he gets a strong GOP candidate to go up against him in 2020. If that happens, the 2020 election may start to look like a repeat of 1980 when Jimmy Carter had to fight for the democrat nomination or a repeat of 1992 with George H.W. Bush who had to fight for the GOP nomination.

If all that happens, then I have no doubt Trump will become a one-term president and the dems will take back the white house in a landslide as big as Barack Obama’s win in 2008. However, as of right now, I think Trump has a 51% of winning in 2020.

I agree with all of it but the approval rating part because trump won with 38-40% approval rating already.

2016 was an anomaly because while he had a 38-40% rating Clinton was only at 42%. Both nominees were historically unpopular, so in that case Trump was considered the lesser evil. That won't be the case in 2020.

[ShadowRocket]

I don't rule out the possibility that it could happen, but I have hard time seeing him winning again unless he is able to turn things around for himself.

[Joey1996]

He was favored to get swept in 2016... Anything is possible

[forgotten manatee]

I so badly want him to lose, but I feel like a strong economy and a quieter Twitter feed will cause most people to forget about all of the bad things he has said and done.

[BaldEagle1991]

Only if he stops tweeting like he belongs in an insane asylum.

[°Leprechaun]

Only if Oprah is the Democratic nominee.

[pbrower2a]

He will not be re-elected in a free and fair election. In view of his behavior and the ruthless, unprincipled support of those around him, he could win a rigged election.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

As of right now, I think he will be re-elected.

[mileslunn]

I give him a 30% chance of re-election.  With all his dumb moves and low approval it seems unlikely but when you consider the incumbency advantages as well as the inefficiency of the Democrat vote it is definitely possible.  I think it is very unlikely he will win the popular vote, but winning the electoral college most certainly as the Democrats tend to pile up the margins in the coastal liberal cities so their vote is very inefficient.