Regarding the next election without Trump on the ballot, which do you think is closer to the truth?

[Ferguson97]

Option 1: Trump has a unique ability to bring out low propensity voters that other Republican candidates don't have. Most of the college-educated voters that Republicans lost during the Trump years aren't coming back, even for a moderate Republican. Because of this, the first election where Trump is not the Republican nominee will put Republicans at a disadvantage.

Option 2: Trump is a uniquely polarizing figure, in a way that other Republican candidates are not. There are many college-educated swing voters who would gladly vote for a more moderate Republican over a Democrat, or even a conservative Republican so long as it's not Trump. And the low propensity voters that Trump won over aren't going anywhere. Because of this, the first election where Trump is not the Republican nominee will put Republicans at an advantage.


For the sake of the discussion, look at this in a vacuum - don't think about how the results of 2024 will matter here. This is about 2028 and beyond.

[Vosem]

I think Option 2 is closer to the truth; there's no particular reason to think that the low-propensity voters are unwilling to turn out for non-Trump figures, based on the last several midterms. That said, I think both of your last sentences are wrong -- the first post-Trump election will turn more on the identities of the new candidates, what particular issues the people think are relevant, and the state of the economy than these (relative) trivialities.

[Sir Mohamed]

Both are equally true in a sense.

[S019]

I think several elections support the theory of Option 2.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I think several elections support the theory of Option 2.

Polls suggesting "unlikely" 2024 voters are R-leaning is evidence in favor of Option 2.

Most of the young voters Rs are gaining are probably not in college, and very unlikely a college town. They def could've contributed to rightwards shifts we saw in a lot of cities though given young people's tendency to rebel, but this time reversed.

Yes, definitely a possibility as Democrats more and more become the establishment party.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

2, but 1 could play a highly decisive factor (just as there were a disproportionate number of voters who turned out only for Obama, and if they had voted would have saved Clinton in 2016)