EPIC-MRA, Michigan:
(This) poll ... offers only a statistical snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time and, nine months before the Democratic primary and 17 months before the general election, there is no saying who will win the Democratic nomination or whether Trump can build more support and get reelected.
But it does indicate continued issues for the president in a state that helped him win the Electoral College vote three years ago. According to the poll:
49% of those surveyed outright support Biden, who was President Barack Obama's vice president, with 3% leaning toward supporting him, compared with 37% who support Trump and 4% who lean toward supporting the president. Only 7% were undecided.
Biden had a 57%-35% edge in metro Detroit, the most populous area of the state, but also led the outer ring of Detroit's suburbs, 62%-35%, and in northern Michigan, 46%-42% according to the poll. Trump held slight leads of 3 percentage points in central and west Michigan and in and around Bay City.
Biden led among all age groups but had an especially large lead — 65%-to-27% — among younger voters ages 18-34. Porn said that suggests that even if younger voters select someone other than the 76-year-old Biden in the Democratic primary, they would still consider supporting him in the general election.
While white voters split between the two candidates with 47% each, African Americans supported Biden 95%-3%.
While Democrats supported Biden 93%-2%, Trump can't count on the same level of support from Republicans, with 83% supporting him and 12% backing Biden. Meanwhile, among self-described independents, 48% supported Biden, 36% supported Trump and 16% were undecided.
The Biden-Trump matchup was the only head-to-head contest polled in June by EPIC-MRA even though there are nearly two dozen Democrats running for the nomination to face Trump in 2020.
But note well:
1. Donald Trump will not win re-election if he gets only 83% of the Republican vote
2. He will not win Michigan (or many other states) if he breaks even with the white vote
3. He cannot win Michigan without winning northern Michigan (the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula
4. He is doing badly in the outer suburbs of Detroit, where he did well enough to win the state
5. He is nearly breaking even in 'western Michigan', which is almost identical to Indiana in its voting patterns.
Michigan is not a microcosm of America, politically or otherwise.
