UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Serenity Now]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

[Serenity Now]

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet, here's a fun tool for this kind of thing:

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction

If, like me, you're not a supporter of the Conservative party you should probably to avoid the 'nowcast' if you've been having a good day until this point. If you are though, I'd also caution that the resulting pleasure you may experience potentially makes it NSFW content.

[Serenity Now]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

2010, where many if not most people forecast an outright Tory majority - not to mention the wild swings in public opinion during the campaign?

I think you must have meant 2005

At the time I was thoroughly convinced (despite everything that was going on in the run-up) that there would be a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, and that David Cameron would somehow become PM. However, I admit that was really vague and not really a 'prediction' as such

But yes, 2005 was definitely more predictable (at the national but not constituency level).

[Serenity Now]

To be honest whenever people ask me for a prediction I tend to go with 'hung Parliament' partly to hedge my bets and partly to be annoying and express my displeasure for political predictions.

In keeping with that spirit, I've gone with 'Conservatives largest party' in this poll for now.