PPP: ME-Biden/Sanders both +10; AZ-Biden+1, Sanders -1 (user search)
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  PPP: ME-Biden/Sanders both +10; AZ-Biden+1, Sanders -1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP: ME-Biden/Sanders both +10; AZ-Biden+1, Sanders -1  (Read 1511 times)
Yellowhammer
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Posts: 2,695
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« on: March 06, 2020, 03:46:03 PM »

Imagine telling someone in 2010 that Arizona might have two Democratic Senators, Georgia might gain a Democratic Senator, Susan Collins is on a possible path to defeat, and President Donald Trump would be in danger of losing Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia to Joe Biden.

Imagine telling them that democrats would lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 6 years' time.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2020, 03:51:21 PM »

Remember when PPP had Clinton at +5 in a bunch of states that Trump won two days before the election? Toss it in the trash with the rest of their polls.

Remember when PPP was the first one to pick up the Biden surge in SC?  They hit some and miss some, just like most other pollsters.  On average they're pretty good.

And the fact is that the only things general election polling is good for this far out is picking up on changes, and perhaps roughly evaluating and comparing candidate strength (ie identifying that candidate A is a weaker challenger to candidate C than candidate B is). Things can and will change; polls are more or less utterly useless for predicting what the final results will be this far out.
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Yellowhammer
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Posts: 2,695
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2020, 12:05:42 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2020, 12:12:39 AM by Yellowhammer »

Imagine telling someone in 2010 that Arizona might have two Democratic Senators, Georgia might gain a Democratic Senator, Susan Collins is on a possible path to defeat, and President Donald Trump would be in danger of losing Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia to Joe Biden.

Imagine telling them that democrats would lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 6 years' time.

Thats not much of a surprise if you look at the 2004 results , so I could easily see that happening.

Obama's margin in those states was a total fluke as he did better than every Dem there since 1952 with the exception of LBJ in 1964

That was exactly my point -- everything libertpaulian said in his post was within the realm of plausibility in 2010. Just as a Republican winning the big three rust belt states was also well within that realm, and would not have been very shocking at all.
Democrats came close to electing Democratic senators in GA and AZ in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Neither were safe R states in 2010. NC voted blue in 2008, and GA was mildly competitive. All three of these states were competitive to varying degrees in the late 2000's/early 2010's.
He's trying to frame these trends as some kind of shocking development/bottom falling out that puts the GOP in a dire situation, when that simply is not the truth. It was a facile statement.
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