Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Senator Spark]

I am planning to volunteer for Jennifer Carrol Roy’s campaign. She’s the next governor VA needs.

Seems like a good candidate.

[Senator Spark]

My preliminary prediction: (Repost)



Former Governor Terence McAuliffe (D) - 1,395,857 votes, 52.57%
Businessman Glenn Youngkin (R) - 1,215,793 votes, 45.79%

I think it can be a little closer than this due to it being an off-year election when turnout is lower, as well as it being during Biden's term. Even still, I don't see Youngkin building the coalition needed in order to win this one. Youngkin is too tied to Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the state. I believe Youngkin is trying to tone down some rhetoric and moderate on social issues to appeal to suburbanites. If he wants to win, he has to compete in NOVA by cutting the margins in Fairfax to something like 65-35, and lose Loudoun by a respectable margin around ~8%.

The good news for Youngkin is that I do believe McAuliffe will run behind Northam somewhat in SoE Virginia, where Northam had home field advantage. That will help Youngkin's chances. I think Youngkin flips Chesterfield too as it was close last time and any shift to the right will flip that county. McAuliffe even lost Chesterfield and Virginia Beach in 2013. Some other factors that can help the Republicans is that voters are fired up about Northam's conduct in office, anti-gun policies, and CRT. That can boost turnout but it won't be enough to win unless Youngkin can turnout Trump's base while simultaneously making in roads with college-educated voters. It's going to be a heavy lift.

In the end, McAuliffe should cruise to re-election by at least 6.5%, my margin has it at 6.78%. I am less bullish on the Republicans this time around, they seem to be in disarray like in other states such as GA and AZ. So my confidence is pretty low for a GOP win here but things can definitely change.

[Senator Spark]

Youngkin looked pretty put together in the first debate against TMac.

[Senator Spark]

Turns out that McAuliffe's gaffe about the parents is truly coming back to haunt him. I hope Youngkin wins and proves us all wrong. I'll still wait on the Q poll to change my prediction/rating though.

[Senator Spark]

Rs are done if NOVA comes out and margins are high there, meaning Youngkin has to get >35% in Fairfax, within 10% or less in Loudoun, and crack 20% in Alexandria. It's unlikely but possible.

[Senator Spark]

Youngkin probably is the next Governor. I've likely retired from political forecasting at this point.