Alberta Election 2019

[Njall]

Janet Brown Opinion research shows UCP with a 19 point lead.  It is a CATI which is what Nanos uses who has a good track record, but since it is out of whack with other pollsters I tend to think it is a bit closer, but would be nice if more polls were in the field.  Numbers in Edmonton and rest of Alberta are inline with other pollsters, main difference is in Calgary they show UCP solidly ahead rather than a competitive race.  Also CATI might skew towards older voters as all polls show UCP well ahead amongst older voters but NDP ahead amongst millennials so perhaps that is part of it.  Indeed millennial turnout will be key.  If they show up in droves it should be competitive and Notley might even win, but if they don't I expect Kenney to coast to a pretty easy victory.

UCP 53%
NDP 34%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 4%

I think turnout generally will be key... Turnout is frequently low in Alberta, I suspect because there are so few ridings that could go either way.  A by-product of this string of close polling results could be that it motivates suburban conservatives to go and vote because the result is in doubt.

Prior to 2015, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion it would be a conservative landslide thus why few bothered to show up.  I think since Kenney is more right wing and scares progressives more than past PC leaders, progressives will be motivated to show up while with conservatives hating Notley and even hating Trudeau more (who they think she is too cozy with) they will be motivated to show up as well.  It really comes down to do millennials show up as the NDP absolutely needs that to be even competitive.  Also the small numbers voting for Liberals and Alberta Party, can either win them over as neither can win much but they could play spoiler in some close ridings.

It’s worth noting that even in the orange wave of 2015, turnout only got to 54%. Even the turnout in our (Calgary’s) municipal election got higher than that in the Nenshi-Smith faceoff.

[DC Al Fine]

New poll from Leger

UCP: 47%
NDP: 38%
Alberta: 9%
Liberal: 4%

[Lachi]

NDP upwards trend continuing, Still got a ways to go, but getting there.

Also, the guy who runs tooclosetocall.ca put up his model a few days back

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/04/the-alberta-2019-model-and-simulator-is.html

[beesley]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance.

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

[Njall]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance.

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

This is a bit of a crapshoot, but some ABP potentials:

• Calgary-Mountain View: Angela Kokott (pretty well-known former broadcaster) is the candidate
• Peace River: Dakota House (indigenous actor, known for his role on CBC's North of 60) is the candidate in this northern, 27% indigenous riding
• Calgary-McCall
• Calgary-East
• Calgary-Currie
• Edmonton-Castle Downs
• Edmonton-Riverview
• Edmonton-Ellerslie

The latter six are ridings where the ABP candidates have been quite active and have been featured a fair bit in social media from the central party. As anecdotal as this is, I drove through parts of McCall and East yesterday and the ABP candidates were holding their own in the private property lawn sign game. Given the present state of the race I don't necessarily think any of them will win, but in the event of a very random ABP breakthrough, the candidates in these ridings are the sort who I think could win.


Regarding the Liberals, it would be very unlikely that they would hold the same 5-seat combination that they did in 2015. Calgary-Mountain View, and possibly Calgary-McCall (but even that's an outside shot) would be the only seats of those 5 that I could see them holding. Of the others, Edmonton-City Centre doesn't even have a Liberal candidate. Edmonton-West Henday (rough successor to Meadowlark) is too much of an NDP-UCP race, and the Liberals really only won that in 2012 (barely) because their Leader was the candidate there. And Calgary-Buffalo has been made into the closest thing to an NDP stronghold in Calgary, and are running their finance minister there.

As sad as it is, I honestly can't think of any Liberal candidates who have a high enough profile to win, aside from Khan himself.

[adma]

NDP upwards trend continuing, Still got a ways to go, but getting there.

Also, the guy who runs tooclosetocall.ca put up his model a few days back

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/04/the-alberta-2019-model-and-simulator-is.html

Technically an upwards trend relative to previous polls; but when it's a 9-point gap, vs other polls that show something narrower, one wonders whether this'll be yet another case where the left comes temptingly ohsoclose but just couldn't clear that final necessary hump, however much they spin the we-got-the-momentum narrative...

[mileslunn]

NDP upwards trend continuing, Still got a ways to go, but getting there.

Also, the guy who runs tooclosetocall.ca put up his model a few days back

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/04/the-alberta-2019-model-and-simulator-is.html

Technically an upwards trend relative to previous polls; but when it's a 9-point gap, vs other polls that show something narrower, one wonders whether this'll be yet another case where the left comes temptingly ohsoclose but just couldn't clear that final necessary hump, however much they spin the we-got-the-momentum narrative...

I think the NDP will likely outperform what they got in Ontario and may even outperform what they got in BC percentage wise, but their biggest problem seems to be the right is united behind the UCP and so uniting progressives unlike most provinces is not enough, they need to pull over some soft Tories which to date they have not been able to do.

[adma]

I think the NDP will likely outperform what they got in Ontario and may even outperform what they got in BC percentage wise, but their biggest problem seems to be the right is united behind the UCP and so uniting progressives unlike most provinces is not enough, they need to pull over some soft Tories which to date they have not been able to do.

Outperforming the ONDP wouldn't be a problem because there isn't a vestigially strong vote-grabbing "middle option" like the Wynne Libs in place  And likewise in BC relative to the Greens.

[beesley]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance?

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

This is a bit of a crapshoot, but some ABP potentials:

• Calgary-Mountain View: Angela Kokott (pretty well-known former broadcaster) is the candidate
• Peace River: Dakota House (indigenous actor, known for his role on CBC's North of 60) is the candidate in this northern, 27% indigenous riding
• Calgary-McCall
• Calgary-East
• Calgary-Currie
• Edmonton-Castle Downs
• Edmonton-Riverview
• Edmonton-Ellerslie

The latter six are ridings where the ABP candidates have been quite active and have been featured a fair bit in social media from the central party. As anecdotal as this is, I drove through parts of McCall and East yesterday and the ABP candidates were holding their own in the private property lawn sign game. Given the present state of the race I don't necessarily think any of them will win, but in the event of a very random ABP breakthrough, the candidates in these ridings are the sort who I think could win.


Regarding the Liberals, it would be very unlikely that they would hold the same 5-seat combination that they did in 2015. Calgary-Mountain View, and possibly Calgary-McCall (but even that's an outside shot) would be the only seats of those 5 that I could see them holding. Of the others, Edmonton-City Centre doesn't even have a Liberal candidate. Edmonton-West Henday (rough successor to Meadowlark) is too much of an NDP-UCP race, and the Liberals really only won that in 2012 (barely) because their Leader was the candidate there. And Calgary-Buffalo has been made into the closest thing to an NDP stronghold in Calgary, and are running their finance minister there.

As sad as it is, I honestly can't think of any Liberal candidates who have a high enough profile to win, aside from Khan himself.

I don't think any of those you mentioned are likely to go AP. I'm hoping that Stephen Mandel can pull it off, but if he does it will be him and Clark.
I suspect David Khan is the only candidate who could win, and even then it's against the current Buffalo MLA. In Buffalo itself I suspect some Liberals will rally behind Joe Ceci.

[Njall]

If the Alberta Party were to break through and get say, 5 seats, which would they be? I assume the seats held by Clark and Fraser would be two, plus Edmonton-McClung, but where else do they have any chance?

I presume if the Liberals were to get 5 seats it would be the 5 they had prior to 2015.

This is a bit of a crapshoot, but some ABP potentials:

• Calgary-Mountain View: Angela Kokott (pretty well-known former broadcaster) is the candidate
• Peace River: Dakota House (indigenous actor, known for his role on CBC's North of 60) is the candidate in this northern, 27% indigenous riding
• Calgary-McCall
• Calgary-East
• Calgary-Currie
• Edmonton-Castle Downs
• Edmonton-Riverview
• Edmonton-Ellerslie

The latter six are ridings where the ABP candidates have been quite active and have been featured a fair bit in social media from the central party. As anecdotal as this is, I drove through parts of McCall and East yesterday and the ABP candidates were holding their own in the private property lawn sign game. Given the present state of the race I don't necessarily think any of them will win, but in the event of a very random ABP breakthrough, the candidates in these ridings are the sort who I think could win.


Regarding the Liberals, it would be very unlikely that they would hold the same 5-seat combination that they did in 2015. Calgary-Mountain View, and possibly Calgary-McCall (but even that's an outside shot) would be the only seats of those 5 that I could see them holding. Of the others, Edmonton-City Centre doesn't even have a Liberal candidate. Edmonton-West Henday (rough successor to Meadowlark) is too much of an NDP-UCP race, and the Liberals really only won that in 2012 (barely) because their Leader was the candidate there. And Calgary-Buffalo has been made into the closest thing to an NDP stronghold in Calgary, and are running their finance minister there.

As sad as it is, I honestly can't think of any Liberal candidates who have a high enough profile to win, aside from Khan himself.

I don't think any of those you mentioned are likely to go AP. I'm hoping that Stephen Mandel can pull it off, but if he does it will be him and Clark.
I suspect David Khan is the only candidate who could win, and even then it's against the current Buffalo MLA. In Buffalo itself I suspect some Liberals will rally behind Joe Ceci.

Yeah, like I said I don't the ABP will actually win those ones, but if they were to surge in support and win 5, it's possible some on that list could be amongst the 5.

[Njall]

New polls!

Ipsos:

UCP: 47%
NDP: 39%
Alberta: 10%
Liberal: 2%


ThinkHQ:

UCP: 46%
NDP: 40%
Alberta: 8%
Liberal: 2%

[ON Progressive]

New polls!

Ipsos:

UCP: 47%
NDP: 39%
Alberta: 10%
Liberal: 2%


ThinkHQ:

UCP: 46%
NDP: 40%
Alberta: 8%
Liberal: 2%

Swings from last poll from each pollster (disclaimer: the last poll from both were pre-campaign). The parenthesis is the percentage in the last poll

Ipsos
UCP: -5 (52%)
NDP: +4 (35%)
Alberta: +4 (6%)
Liberal: -3 (5%)

ThinkHQ
UCP: -3 (49%)
NDP: +2 (38%)
Alberta: no change (8%)
Liberal: -1 (3%)

[beesley]

Seems to be a gradual rise in Alberta Party support at the expense of the UCP and Liberals.

[Njall]

Yesterday was the first day (of 5) of advance voting, and 140,000 folks turned out to vote. This is compared to 58,000 on the first day of advance voting last election. It should be noted that Elections Alberta is allowing voters to vote at any advance polling station in the province, no matter the riding, so voters who are out of their home ridings but still in the province don’t have to request absentee ballots. Yesterday, 33,000 people voted at an advance poll outside their home riding.

[ON Progressive]

Yesterday was the first day (of 5) of advance voting, and 140,000 folks turned out to vote. This is compared to 58,000 on the first day of advance voting last election. It should be noted that Elections Alberta is allowing voters to vote at any advance polling station in the province, no matter the riding, so voters who are out of their home ridings but still in the province don’t have to request absentee ballots. Yesterday, 33,000 people voted at an advance poll outside their home riding.

What would happen to the votes of those 33000? Would they be counted in the riding they voted in or the riding they live in?

[Njall]

Yesterday was the first day (of 5) of advance voting, and 140,000 folks turned out to vote. This is compared to 58,000 on the first day of advance voting last election. It should be noted that Elections Alberta is allowing voters to vote at any advance polling station in the province, no matter the riding, so voters who are out of their home ridings but still in the province don’t have to request absentee ballots. Yesterday, 33,000 people voted at an advance poll outside their home riding.

What would happen to the votes of those 33000? Would they be counted in the riding they voted in or the riding they live in?

They’ll be counted for the riding they live in. When a voter goes to an advance poll outside their riding, the elections workers will print them a ballot for their home riding. After advance voting ends, the ballots will be sent to a central facility in Edmonton and counted there after Election Day votes are counted.

[DL]

Yesterday was the first day (of 5) of advance voting, and 140,000 folks turned out to vote. This is compared to 58,000 on the first day of advance voting last election. It should be noted that Elections Alberta is allowing voters to vote at any advance polling station in the province, no matter the riding, so voters who are out of their home ridings but still in the province don’t have to request absentee ballots. Yesterday, 33,000 people voted at an advance poll outside their home riding.

They’ll be counted for the riding they live in. When a voter goes to an advance poll outside their riding, the elections workers will print them a ballot for their home riding. After advance voting ends, the ballots will be sent to a central facility in Edmonton and counted there after Election Day votes are counted.

The same thing is done in BC elections and FWIW those out of riding absentee ballots in BC tend to skew heavily NDP

What would happen to the votes of those 33000? Would they be counted in the riding they voted in or the riding they live in?

[DL]

The rolling tracking poll that Mainstreet is doing shows the gap narrowing yet again and the NDP getting over the 40% mark for the first time...I don't see them closing the gap completely but if the province wide gap can get to 4 points and the NDP can move ahead in Calgary we could actually have a real race

[Pericles]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

[Njall]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

[Pericles]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

The CBC's forecast has the NDP's odds at less than 1%, that does seem a bit too low.

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

The CBC's forecast has the NDP's odds at less than 1%, that does seem a bit too low.

That's because the poll tracker isn't projecting out trends. It suggests odds of winning if an election were held today based on their current polling average, which still has the NDP down quite a bit.

[toaster]

Not to mention Eric Grenier's anti-NDP bias.

[Njall]

Another 136,000 Albertans voted yesterday, including 50,000 voting outside their district. Advance poll turnout this election has, in two days, surpassed the 4-day total from last election.

[Njall]

Momentum is still strong at the advance polls. 127,000 voted yesterday, bringing the to-date total to 403,000.