Early Cracks in Bush's Re-Election Armor

[Gustaf]

I am not sure whether the prospect of  Hillary Clinton VP spot would really mean trouble for Bush, but otherwise I think this is a good analysis. I agree that the race will probably be interesting and that, depending on the definition, we most likely will not have a lanslide, but a fairly close election, at least in the PV. Some polls seem to indicate that Bush is losing some support in the south, but gaining in the crucial Mid-West states, and that could seal the election.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

They are claiming that everyday.  If people believed them on mass, Bush's poll numbers would be way lower than they are.  Kerry prides himself on being MORE liberal than Ted Kennedy.  That won't sell well to a vast majority of voters.

Other things have been helping Bush, and I think you really know that. Just like we all know that Kerry won't run as a "proud liberal", b/c he isn't a complete idiot.

[Gustaf]

Also, according to reports, the Bush team already has an election strategy for the presidency, House, Senate and governorships.

Well, they should...I agree that Bush's campaign will make some difference, but it's hard to tell how much.

[Gustaf]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

If the GDP growth doesn't benefit them they have no reason to be happy about it. And growth does not produce jobs, that's nonsense. It gives higher real wages, but not necessarily more jobs.

[Gustaf]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

If the GDP growth doesn't benefit them they have no reason to be happy about it. And growth does not produce jobs, that's nonsense. It gives higher real wages, but not necessarily more jobs.

Yes, thats the point - the majority of people, who are employed, are better off.  The small minority who are unemployed are quite a bit worse off.  So even though the average worker is making more now than three years ago, and is benefiting from lower interest rates and other deflationary phenoma, he is feeling anxious about his job due to the others being unemployed.  

Well, it's a matter of perception, but also of choice. Would you be willing to lower your wage to ensure that you get to keep your job? It's always a balance between safety and wage to be maintained.