Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-exploit-atacms-window-russia-1896472

"Ukraine Rushes To Exploit Short ATACMS Window"

"As we know, the Russians are able to adapt in a very short period of time," Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine and now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's national security, defense and intelligence committee, told Newsweek.

"I think we have up to two months to eliminate as many Russian war objects as is possible before the Russians will adapt," Stupak added.

Sounds like a validation of my narrative that the war is sort of a vaccine lab for Russia to get used to NATO weapons, in small quantities, and then figure out a way to deal with them and become "immune" to them.

It occurred to me that this entire conflict is sort of a Russian vaccine lab for NATO weapons.

NATO would send different NATO weapons to Ukraine in small quantities with one type at a time.  Each time they are used by not well-trained Ukranians so they are generally less effective than they could be especially in small quantities.  This allows the Russians to deal with these weapons and learn about their capabilities one at a time without dealing with the full downside of these weapons.  This makes the Russians that much more prepared to deal with these weapons in the future in the hands of well well-trained NATO military. 

It seems the F-16 later this year which will show up in small quantities with manned by a UAF that has limited training will be the next to show up as a NATO weapons vaccine in the Russian vaccine lab.

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895056/donald-trump-effigy-burned-ukraine-twitter

 "Ukrainian soldiers burn Donald Trump effigy and call him a 'traitor' in shocking video"

Sounds like another chapter in Ukraine genius foreign policy hedging strategy. 

Overworked jarheads are supposed to think and act like diplomats now? Or is it only if they're fighting for countries whose conquest and ethnic cleansing you're rooting for?

I was more think the Ukraine military and government should punish these folks for blowing up the situation with the USA and put out statements that such acts are totally unacceptable for the Ukraine militayr.  . Video like this will future consolidate the MAGA vote in the USA against Ukraine.

[jaichind]

Military intelligence: Russian northern grouping “set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops” to gear up for assault on Kharkiv

According to Skibitskyi, currently, Russians have 35,000 troops in their northern grouping “across from Kharkiv” and 514,000 land troops “committed to Ukraine operation” in general. For an assault, Skibitskyi says the grouping “is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops.”

https://gwaramedia.com/en/military-intelligence-russian-northern-grouping-set-to-expand-to-between-50-000-and-70-000-troops-to-gear-up-for-assault-on-kharkiv/

I insist this is a bluff.  In 2024 Russia will focus on Donbas with any likely attacking force near Karkov being a decoy to draw away Ukraine reserves.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/0d77f54b-af74-4186-9cae-237528ad7d69

"The clash over whether to commandeer Russia’s frozen assets"

Although Ukraine continues to push for an all-out seizure of Russia’s assets, G7 officials say privately that is no longer on the table. Instead, they are exploring alternative ways of extracting funding from the frozen assets.

To get around this, the White House is pushing a new idea that it hopes will win the support of G7 leaders in June. This would involve releasing about $50bn of funding for Ukraine via a loan or bond secured against future profits from the frozen assets, explains Singh.

The main problem with the USA idea of loans against the profits of the frozen Russian asset is that there are "only" 5 billion EUR of such profits so far.

[jaichind]

The way Russians make fun of USA is exactly like the way US Conservatives mock US Progressives:

https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1786551313079378346
Hopefully more US Conservatives realize they are only devaluing their own country in front of the world when they position themselves against important causes that are what Western Civilization is known for. Opens door for others to ridicule you as well, with domestic validation.

Conservatives who are Pro-American should be getting behind Progressive policies if they really support their own country, despite some localized Progressive excesses.

Obviously, a small minority can weaponize such causes to make them look as satirical and exaggerated like in the video, but it doesn’t change how serious conversations about such topics is necessary and how the instinct to satirize and define the US by those standards shows how insecure Russia actually is about itself.

But how is that different from "progressives" in Japan, India, PRC, and Russia also parroting what Biden says about those states?


Also these "causes" only became "Western" only in the last few decades. 

Back in 1790, the USA which was clearly a Western civilization offshoot said that immigration was for "free white person(s) ... of good character" which does not align with the current woke agenda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naturalization_Act_of_1790

I think "Western Civilization is known for" is more about the current, and hopefully, temporary incarnation of what the West has become last few decades.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians captured Arkhanhelske

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/ukraine-debt-payments-russia-war-1c0c301e

"Bondholders to Push Ukraine to Resume Debt Payments After Hiatus"

Ukraine's lenders said Kyiv could wait to pay them back after Russian troops stormed into the country two years ago. Now, their patience is starting to run out.
A group of foreign bondholders including BlackRock and Pimco plans to press Ukraine to start paying interest on its debt again as soon as next year, according to people familiar with the matter.

In the end it will always be about "show me the money"

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895760/ukraine-soldiers-russia-war-zelensky

"Ukraine soldiers furious as men 'refusing to fight' Russia: 'We can't defend our country'"

Ukraine is in a "dire" situation on the frontline as many men are refusing to fight as aid from the US makes its way to Kyiv slowly.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say Russians captured Kislovka

[jaichind]

Anti-Putin Russian media Mediazona estimate by month of Russia KIA mostly by scrapping obituaries.   This effort seems to have BBC funding.   The KIA rate has clearly been going down these last few months and the breakdown of the type of KIA gives good trends on the makeup of the Russian military at the front.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-trophy-weapons-exhibition-moscow-military-78ec9388ab7ea0b02722e2e70f67ffd9

"Kremlin parades Western equipment captured from Ukrainian army at Moscow exhibition"



It seems to me Kiev should be doing something similar to show off the Russian equipment they captured.

[jaichind]

What observations do you think there are to glean from this data specifically?

The battle of Bakhmut was very costly for the Russians where convicts and the Wagner Group made up of a good part of the attacking force and losses.  Since that battle it seems volunteers made up a larger part of the Russian force at the front and the losses as well

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-calls-ukraine-truce-peace-talks-with-putin-newspaper-2024-05-06/

"Italy calls for Ukraine truce, peace talks with Putin - newspaper"

Italy's Defence Minister said on Monday economic sanctions against Russia had failed and called on the West to try harder to negotiate a diplomatic solution with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Guido Crosetto told daily Il Messaggero that the West had wrongly believed its sanctions could stop Russia's aggression, but it had overestimated its economic influence in the world.

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html

'Satellite images show Russia no longer using Crimean bridge to supply troops in Ukraine"



if so I wonder if Ukraine will still use its limited resources to disable the Crimean bridge since there will be very small to no military impact in doing so.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-06/russia-s-budget-is-getting-twice-as-much-oil-money-as-a-year-ago

"Russia’s Budget Is Getting Twice as Much Oil Money as a Year Ago"




To be fair this time last year was a low as far as Russian budget revenues from oil.  One way to look at this is the likely 2024 Russian budget deficit as a % of GDP and compare it to previous years.

2019    +1.8%
2020    -3.8%
2021     0.4%
2022    -2.1%
2023    -1.9%
2024    -1.7%  (average of various financial firm estimates)

Russia usually runs a tiny budget surplus had had to go into deficit because of COVID-19 and this current war.  The deficit seems to be slowing going down as a % of GDP