Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

In other news, a NYT reporter, a Mr. Max Fisher. puts up a piece about nuclear war odds going up, still low, but up. The reasons stated are the obvious ones we have been talking about. So if such chatter is gas lighting, then the NYT has joined the club.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Thanks. To ask the obvious, what does "legal status" in Crimea Ukraine mean?

In other news, a NYT reporter, a Mr. Max Fisher. puts up a piece about nuclear war odds going up, still low, but up. The reasons stated are the obvious ones we have been talking about. So if such chatter is gas lighting, then the NYT has joined the club.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

Just to be clear, it's talking about the Russian language getting legal status.

Oh, I see. Weird to fight a war over language status. Thank heavens Mexico does not have nukes.

[Torie]

In the ongoing on and off again saga of the S-300 missiles, vis a vis the US, they are off. While Biden does not mind other nations giving Ukraine such missiles, the US will not. Why?  KISS. They are too complicated he thinks for Ukraine to use effectively and something might go "wrong." And the US does not want to send personnel to help. So says CNN.

Does this make a lot of sense to this particular challenged old mind? Not really.

Anyone here a pro in using S-300 missiles? Dead0man? Anyone here run a country that has a few that they could spare?

S-300s are Ukraine's primary anti-air missile system.  wiki cite  You'd have to assume that even if what we were offering was a different version than they are used to (there are a mess of flavors), it still would be a fairly easy learning curve....or not I guess.  It certainly seems like a sh**tty excuse, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

None of the news stories I've lightly Googled about it mention what version the US is offering.

I don't know what Torie is talking about, since the US wouldn't have any S-300s to give. It is an old Soviet system that the US has never used.

This might help. I am a mere conduit. I have no personal knowledge of things military. And it is always possible I got things mixed up. The mind is no longer a terrible thing to waste when it goes senile.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html

[Torie]

Definitely not concerning language from Putin:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504117674934247432?s=20&t=Zj9hz4g...

That really is concerning. The guy might really, really be nuts.

[Torie]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

[Torie]

Ummm...what?
(Note that this guy is part of the government in exile, not affiliated with Lukashenko's organized crime syndicate"government".)
https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?s=20&t=6br2t5EE...

That plane looks very gay. How much does it cost?

Su-34, I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

Yeah it's a 34. $30-40m each

Damn. Pity the denomination was not in rubles.

[Torie]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

Uncertain, though due to EU's criteria and inner politics more than any military situation. Turkey's beef over Cyprus is keeping them out and Spain might be afraid Catalonia will declare independence if Ukraine's allowed in with territorial disputes. The Ukrainian government still needs to meet standards regarding public official/law enforcement corruption.

Moreover, the Kremlin is calling for no foreign troops not only in Ukraine, but for all foreign troops to leave the former Warsaw Pact/USSR nations which have since joined NATO/EU. That should signal what the Kremlin's ambitions are.

That is one of the most bellicose "peace" plans ever written. Putin is still on his mad dash into hell. I am pessimistic that he will be deflected from his intended destination.

[Torie]

Between this and the whole encouraging patent theft i can't help but think that even if/when sanctions get lifted from Russia. Companies may be more careful in the future about doing business in Russia now.

Russia is seizing hundreds of commercial jets owned by US and European leasing companies, a further sign of the challenges the country's airline industry faces due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin signed a law Monday as part of the government's anti-sanction measures that will allow Russian airlines to register planes leased from foreign companies in Russia, where they will be issued local certificates of airworthiness, according to a statement from the Kremlin.

The bill will make it possible for Russian airlines to keep their foreign leased aircraft and operate the planes on domestic routes, while making it harder for foreign companies to reclaim their jets without Russian government approval.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html

Yikes. Note to self. Don't take a domestic flight in Russia. The planes may be my coffin. Russia can't  make the spare parts, and will have to cannibalize planes for parts. Back to the Siberian express for travel just like in the movie. One would have thought Putin would have made Russia self sufficient in planes.

[Torie]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-17/volodomyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-leadership-transformed-by-war/100886298

"There have been comparisons with Britain’s WWII prime minister Winston Churchill "

What a great article you put up there. It's so well written. Riveting. Thanks so much for putting it up. I could tell that Zelensky had an athletic body but I had no idea how athletic until I saw him dance. Wow. I want him. How do I get him to swing my way? 

[Torie]

Meanwhile... totally get it that the overwhelming majority of y'all don't like me, don't agree with my posts, and basically have me on virtual ignore, not planning on shutting up quite yet (Regardless of whomever the narc was who snitched me out last night... Karma will beat your Dogma any hour of any day of any week).

What gives you that impression?

It's okay.

I know what I did and accept responsibility for my actions and will attempt to "shut up" to the best of my abilities.

Not about me on this thread, although in the almost 50 years of my life in all sorts of IRL experiences never ever been a snitch or a narc, so let that lay on the moral consciousness of whomever went down that route.

Can't discuss this topic any more within this venue, but as it is suspect have been wasting way too many hours of my life providing reports from various media outlets, rather than shifting my energy elsewhere on broader Social Media outlets.

Will continue to lurk and occasionally provide updates, but don't really expect much in the way of actual written word content anymore except within extremely condensed content, which effectively for substantive content is the equivalent of neutering a male cat.

I for one very much appreciate your posts, and my honest impression is that most posters here do. You can't please everyone, particularly when you have a strong opinion on a matter as to which a few strongly disagree. Not that it matters really, but the number of posters who think Putin was even remotely justified in what he did you can count on the fingers of one hand without using all of such fingers. Myself I don't pay much attention to what the shills opine. I am more interested in any event in obtaining actual facts and news from this thread, and not whether or not Putin is going to hell or not. I have already made up my mind on that issue, and do not wish to debate the matter, or argue about it, so I don't respond to the shills on that point.

I do appreciate that the Ukraine story is so riveting that it does deflect one from the more mundane tasks that one needs to do in one's daily life.

[Torie]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/17/world/ukraine-russia-war



This 30 minute podcast was well worth listening to. The prognosis given by the interviewee, one David Sanger, is very sanguinary, and frankly quite frightening to me. Putin is a very angry man. He is obsessed with taking Ukraine, but his army has performed below his expectations, the Ukrainians more intransigent and hostile than expected, and the sanctions more damaging than expected. Contrary to his expectations he has annealed a nation, a nation against him. But he still wants Ukraine, all of it, no matter the attitude of the residents.

The good news is that while US experts were worried two weeks ago that Putin was going to the Polish border, and snapping up Moldova too perhaps, that risk has faded. It is not clear that Putin can even take Kiev. Sanger says US authorities think Russian casualties have been very high, far more than expected.

The bad news is that Putin cannot afford to give up from his perspective, and the destruction and killing on a mass scale can go on for months. If Kiev is taken, and the government flees to Lviv, the West will publically finance and support a proxy guerilla war. It cannot allow Putin to win, fix his military, and then go for more. So accepting defeat is not an option for either side; it's more death and destruction instead.

Assuming Putin is still around, this is the moment of peak danger. Does Putin give up his obsession with Ukraine, settling for Ukraine and maybe Donbas and Donetsk, but Russia precluded from invading Ukraine again because it has security guarantees, armed to the teeth, or does he then lash out?  The US has not spoken to Russia for 3 weeks. Yesterday, US national security advisor Sullivan spoke to his Russian counterpart. The topic of discussion? Sullivan informing Russia of the doomsday consequences of Russian using chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine. The US is that worried that Putin is seriously considering going there as the only way to achieve his objectives. Now it is on to China. China likes the idea of having a bad boy partner to do the dirty work to undermine the West, but on the other hand, itself becoming as much of a bad boy is very much against its interest given its international economic ties and interests. On the other hand it does not want Putin unduly humiliated. It wants an ending that is more like how the Korean war ended. (That last sentence is mine, not Sanger's, so feel free to pay it no mind.)

Sanger in the end expects the most likely outcome is a diplomatic deal as described above, but only after a lot more blood sweat and tears, with the attendant dangers of the war escalating to a far more dangerous plane. As an angry cornered animal, there is  considerable uncertainty as to what Putin would do in such a psychological condition.

That is my synopsis as to what Sanger said, but if you can get behind the paywall, by all means listen to it yourself and draw your own conclusions and opinions, and post them if you like.

Oh, one other thing Sanger said is that he thinks most Russians have no idea of the scope of the war, and how bloody it is, but they will in due course as they learn about the death of their loved ones.

[Torie]

I assume these are Russian helicopters, right?

[Torie]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

I assume this crude prevariacating propaganda is for Russian consumption. Surely they know it destroys Russia's/Putin's credibility on anything elsewhere, and makes demonizing Putin even more appropriate.

[Torie]

Yes Arnold's speech was extremely well written and delivered. I was impressed.

[Torie]

That is what happens when you don't have to pay market rates for gas.

[Torie]

This are fighting words!

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

LOL, what are they going to do to the US? They don’t have the oil/gas leverage like they have over Europe over the US. If they’re hinting at nukes. Mutually assured destruction is still a thing.

The truth is an actual nuclear exchange between the US and Russia while it would no doubt be an utterly devastating and traumatic event would go far worse for Russia, and probably wouldn't mean the end of the world. For one we don't know how many Russian warheads are even still operational or deployable via ICBM (we've already seen how effective the Russian military is) and the US has missile defense system capable of intercepting probably most. Now that doesn't mean that it should be brushed off as no problem because "most" doesn't mean "all" and even one or two warheads slipping through would cause the death of thousands and leave presumably some major city essentially permanently uninhabitable...but it's nothing in comparison to the US counterstrike against Russia where the country might as well not cease to exist later. And even if Putin is too crazy to not realize this, almost everyone else in the Russian military and chain of command isn't.

Good post BRTD, but I have read that the chain of command in Russia between Putin says let's end it all, and the missile launch is very truncated. That does not mean that many will not refuse to push whatever buttons need to be pushed. And I agree as an uber non-expert that the most likely outcome is that Russia will cease to exist in any meaningful way on this earth as opposed to something far more "pandemic." But even if just a few missiles are launched the result will be utterly horrific in human suffering. And then there is all the radiation in the air.

The issue is 1) will Putin accept he can't get what he wants in lieu or trying to blow the planet up, and 2) if he tries to blow the planet up, can he do it given the questionable state of his hardware, and whatever underlings are needed to launch will obey his orders. It is a very low risk any of this will happen, but if it is 1% or 2%, that is very concerning obviously.

[Torie]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

[Torie]

Depressing.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

A veritable who's who of $hitbags.

I was a bit puzzled to see the Wisconsin guy on the list with the other parade of horribles as a Putin pimp, but it turns out that he is not one, he just thinks there are higher priorities than punishing Putin:

"Grothman said he was concerned that the changes to part of that law, defining human rights abuses, could possibly be used to apply economic sanctions to countries over their stance on LGBTQ rights or abortion laws."

It is the damn queers again. They get in the way of everything.

[Torie]

"Putin blamed Kyiv for delaying negotiations by "putting forward more and more unrealistic proposals," the Kremlin said."

How many Russian provinces was Ukraine demanding that Russia cede to it?

"Isn’t this somewhat compensated by Russian conscripts gaining battlefield experience?"

You mean like punching holes in your gas tank and abandoning your vehicles when there is incoming because those that do have gas turn into fireballs?

Sorry I could not help it. Just pretend this post does not exist. Thank you.

[Torie]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

[Torie]

One of the most interesting posts ever to me was the comment made by compucomp, presumably sincerely and without guile, that he was very open to the idea of adjusting his views as the PRC government adjusted its views. I remember way back when, when John Chancellor commented during the Nixon in China time, about the aspect of Chinese culture that it respects authority.

This is so foreign to the mindset in American culture, and presumably the Anglosphere in general, where authority is there to be challenged, and it is held in suspicion. I admit that I get a naughty little pleasure in violation malum prohibitum laws that I think are silly or inane.

Anyway, it is just a cultural difference that should be borne in mind when interacting with other posters. You are not going to chance a poster's mindset in general here. In my experience, getting on in life is more about trying to accommodate and navigate around the eccentricities as you see it of people, rather than to reform them into your image, or an image that you would prefer. Attempting the latter will generally lead to frustration and disappointment.

It's not the prevailing view (probably not in China, either), but partisans in America take the majority of their political cues from the leaders they've thrown their lot in with, and sometimes they do this consciously. The difference in China is that there is only one set of partisans.

It's just this taken to an extreme:

Quite. The idea that if one would but spend one's time sitting at the feet of politicians as if they were Socrates or Aristotle, one would become wiser, is indeed utterly foreign to me. That assumes of course that wisdom is not co-extensive with honing the art of the spin, until one earns a doctorate therein.

[Torie]

Was there anything of interest in the speech or was it the same "we have to nazify Ukraine in order to denazify it" crapola as always?

Pure wind. The bit that got accidentally cut out by his own state broadcaster was a rambling anecdote about the invasi Special Military Operation beginning on the birthday of Fyodor Ushakhov (1745-1817) who is now the patron saint of the Russian Navy and the Russian Nuclear Bombers Fleet but, more importantly, was instrumental in the conquest of the Crimea and the founding of Sevastopol and various ports along the Black Sea coast, including Kherson.

You understand Russian? I must say that for a 70 year old, Putin appears quite fit and feisty.