MS-01 Special Election Thread

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My apologies if there's already a thread.

Election is May 12. With 13 candidates and over 50% of the vote required to win the election, a runoff is almost certain. At this point, it looks like Mike Tagert, Trent Kelly, and Boyce Adams are the frontrunners. Although Walter Zinn could sneak in the runoff since he's the only Democrat in the field (and the GOP will be splitting their vote between 12).

The runoff would be on June 2, BTW.

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I understand that ALL republican candidates are, generally, "solid conservatives" (especially - because it's a Misssissippi), and lone Democrat  (who happens to be Black) - most likely left-of-center at least. But some differences (say, "establishment more pragmatic conservative" vs "radical tea-party conservative") probably exist. Can you explain in more details?

I'll be happy to explain further. I live in Hattiesburg (well south of the district) but have been following this race closely. Here's a recap on the main candidates

Mike Tagert - Currently transportation commissioner for Mississippi's Northern District. Establishment type, backed by the Barbour machine, etc. Actually lives south of the district in Starkville, so we'll see if that ends up hurting him. He did make a comment last year about supporting an increased gas tax to pay for infrastructure, which could also deter his support. Probably the front runner at this point, and likely to make runoff.

Trent Kelly - District attorney for a few counties in the northeast part of the district. Was actually a Democrat up until 2011 (Dems still have a strong presence in local politics in NE Mississippi). Should perform well in the northeast part of the district, which includes Tupelo/Lee County.

Boyce Adams - Appears to lean toward the Tea Party side of the GOP. He's a small business owner in Columbus. Ran for a spot on the Mississippi public service commission in 2011 but lost to Elvis' 2nd cousin. Supposedly has the quiet support of governor Phil Bryant. Has been quoted as saying that some from the Obama administration should be thrown in jail, and has also said that he'd put GWB on Mt. Rushmore.

Starner Jones - physician from Pontotoc and a possible wild card in the race. Hard core Tea Partier who has been campaigning hard against Obama and welfare. Recently endorsed by Herman Cain.

Walter Zinn - Pontotoc attorney and only Democrat in field. Has somewhat of a shot to make runoff as he is only Dem in the field and GOP will be splitting vote between 12 candidates. He would, however, have no shot at winning the runoff if he makes it that far.

The following candidates are expected to be minor players in this race

Quentin Whitwell - former city councilman in Jackson who now lives in Oxford. May have support in Lafayette County (Oxford) but probably a long shot to make runoff.

Henry Ross - mayor of Europa who ran for this seat in 2010 and 2012. Big Tea Party guy who's been endorsed by the Tea Party Express. Should carry Webster County (home county) and maybe Calhoun County but that's probably his ceiling.

Nancy Collins - state senator from Tupelo.

Daniel Sparks - originally from Tishomingo County but now in Oxford as an attorney. Some people think of him as a potential dark horse but I don't see it.

Chip Mills - County prosecutor from Fulton. Should do well in his home county of Itawamba but won't be a factor otherwise

Sam Adcock - businessman from Columbus. Former Trent Lott staffer.

Greg Pirkle - Tupelo attorney

Ed Holliday - Tupelo dentist. Tea Party guy.

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Also, DeSoto County (Memphis suburbs) will be huge in this race. No candidates in the race are from DeSoto (which is shocking, honestly) so that area is very much up for grabs.

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Is Starner Jones using racially coded messages when campaigning?  Your description sounds a little fishy.

I don't have enough posts to post a link yet, but go on YouTube and search "Starner Jones Welfare Wagon".

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May 12 is the primary?

It's not a primary but it may as well be. The setup will be very similar to Louisiana's "jungle primary".

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Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

It's a different kind of conservatism though. North Mississippi is more of a strong social conservatism while South Mississippi conservatives are generally more concerned about the fiscal side of politics (this is especially true in the more 'urban' areas like Gulfport/Biloxi and Hattiesburg). South Mississippians are generally social conservatives as well, but most vote GOP because of their stances on fiscal issues.

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Trent Lott endorsed Sam Adcock yesterday, per his website.

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Well, the election is tomorrow. I'm predicting a Tagert/Kelly runoff.

Anyone think Zinn, the only democrat, will make the runoff?

I'd at least say he has a chance. The GOP candidates could split the vote enough to where he sneaks in the top 2.

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My prediction/guess

1. Mike Tagert
2. Trent Kelly
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3. Walter Zinn
4. Boyce Adams
5. Chip Mills

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Secretary of State Hosemann was quoted as saying turnout is "alarmingly low".

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Nancy Collins has almost zero campaign presence.  I'm actually really surprised by how fickle her campaign has been. 

There's a bond issue in Lowndes County today, so that should boost turnout in what will otherwise be an anemic race.  Look for that to help Adams and Adcock the most.

In fact, all of y'all are underestimating Boyce Adams.  He's a top-tier candidate in this race (much more so than Nancy Collins, Henry Ross, or Chip Mills) and has a very realistic shot of making the runoff.  He has the backing of the incumbent governor's apparatus. 

Mike Tagert = Haley Barbour's campaign apparatus
Boyce Adams = Phil Bryant's apparatus
Trent Kelly = Alan Nunnelee loyalists
Sam Adcock = whatever Trent Lott has left in the state?  lol

Those four are the only serious contenders. 

I feel like Mills will be top 5 because I think he will take Itawamba and maybe Monroe County, which will be enough for a decent-ish finish. Wouldn't be surprised if Adams finishes top 2 but I'm not real high on Adcock. Agree on Collins though.

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Zinn has over 65% of the vote in Marshall County so far. Obama won this county in '12.

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Mills killing it in Itawamba, thought that might happen.

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Zinn has over 65% of the vote in Marshall County so far. Obama won this county in '12.

Do you have a link for the county by county results?

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/mississippi-ms-01-primary/

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Poor Adcock.

No precincts from Lowndes have reported yet so would wait on that before ruling him out.

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This link is good too: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_county/MS_US_House_0512.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

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AOSHQDD numbers for Oktibbeha look WAY off:  there shouldn't even be that many votes in the county.

Its too difficult to make heads-or-tails of it at the moment, but I'd say that Adcock and Adams no longer have chances to make the runoff seeing how localized their support is to their splintered, shared electoral base of Lowndes County.

Right now its a Tagert, Kelly, Zinn race, but I expect Zinn's numbers to continue dropping until the three candidates are all neck-and-neck.

Yep, and MS-01 doesn't even include Starkville (the most populated part of Oktibbeha)

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Appears that all DeSoto precincts are in.

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Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

I don't know much else about him, but he did make a comment in of the debates about wanting to restore voting rights for ex-felons.

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Zinn may win Clay County but that's probably it.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wjtv.com/story/29215373/runoff-in-mississippi-will-fill-1-of-2-vacancies-us-house

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https://twitter.com/rwneilljr/status/605875354343870465

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Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of GOP voters lost interest in this runoff after their candidate lost in the first race.

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Do the most Republican counties come in first?

It varies, except that Pontotoc is almost always last.

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We need a county by county map... Does anyone have a link?

http://djournal.com