2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925

Whatever is happening in Texas is completely wild and certainly a change from the status quo, and a change in the status quo in Texas is not good news for Republicans in this environment.

[Gass3268]

Couple Wisconsin notes:
- Election workers won't go home until every vote is counted.
- Most municipalities in Wisconsin count their absentee ballots at polling places on Election Day, but Milwaukee and 38 other communities count their absentee ballots in a central location. I'm trying to find out who those 38 other communities are. Milwaukee is trying to get permission from the Wisconsin Elections commission the right to do an initial release of absentee voters of what they were able to count during the day.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1318569467610337280?s=20

Communities that will have centralized absentee ballot counting places in Wisconsin:

City of Ashland (Ashland/Bayfield)
City of De Pere (Brown)
City of Green Bay (Brown)
Village of Allouez (Brown)
Village of Ashwaubenon (Brown)
Village of Bellevue (Brown)
Village of Hobart (Brown)
Village of Suamico (Brown)
Town of Cottage Grove (Dane)
Town of Oregon (Dane)
City of Superior (Douglas)
City of Kenosha (Kenosha)
Village of Pleasant Prairie (Kenosha)
Town of Somers (Kenosha)
Village of Somers (Kenosha)
City of Manitowoc (Manitowoc)
City of Wausau (Marathon)
City of Franklin (Milwaukee)
City of Milwaukee (Milwaukee)
City of West Allis (Milwaukee)
City of Oak Creek (Milwaukee)
Village of Shorewood (Milwaukee)
City of South Milwaukee (Milwaukee)
City of Wauwatosa (Milwaukee)
Village of Greendale (Milwaukee)
City of West Allis (Milwaukee)
Village of Combined Locks (Outagamie) (Has authority to do so, but does not use)
Town of Grand Chute (Outagamie)
City of Beloit (Rock)
City of Janesville (Rock)
City of Hudson (St. Croix)
City of River Falls (St. Croix)
City of West Bend (Washington)
Village of Germantown (Washington)
City of Brookfield (Waukesha)
City of New Berlin (Waukesha)
City of Pewaukee (Waukesha)
Village of Menomonee Falls (Waukesha)
Village of Fox Crossing (Winnebago)
City of Neenah (Winnebago)

[indietraveler]

TX exceeded 50% of 2016 votes in its first week.

All it needs to do to get to 100% prior to 11/3 is half that for the next two weeks.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania is doing the same thing as Wisconsin. Or at least the Southeastern counties + Philly are. Continuously counting for 24 hours a day until they finish.

[Gass3268]

Pennsylvania is doing the same thing as Wisconsin. Or at least the Southeastern counties + Philly are. Continuously counting for 24 hours a day until they finish.

The main difference is that I’m pretty sure PA absentee ballot voting is centralized by county, instead of dispersed by ward/town/municipality like Wisconsin.

[mijan]

Iowa early vote stats up
IA-1
Dem 84434
Rep 40395
NPA 26304
Dem + 44039

IA-2
Dem 83086
Rep 39763
NPA 24968
Dem + 43323

IA-3
Dem 82557
Rep 41961
NPA 23265
Dem + 40596

IA-4
Dem 54274
Rep 49001
NPA 18971
Dem +5273

Total
Dem 304351
Rep 171120
NPA 93508
Dem + 133231

Dem have crossed 300k early voting mark. That's huge as in 2012 only 288 k registered Dem voted early.

Couple of points I want to make after seeing this data.

- Dems enthusiasm is very high in Iowa.
- The early voting advantage of Dems this time in Iowa is simply historic and it can not be compared with 2016,2012.
In 2012 Dems have 67 k advantage
In 2016 Dems have 42 k advantage
This time Dems have as of today 133 k vote advantage and have the potential to take 170 k early vote lead.

- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.

-Rep are slowly closing gap in IA-4 Dems lead comes down to 5k compare to 8k 5-6 days ago. However Rep are getting killed in IA-1,2&3 with Dems already having 40 k+ vote advantages in all of them.

-Dems have return rate of 74.95% compare to Rep's 67.73% return rate.
-Dems lead early vote 53.31% to 29.97% over Rep.

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated 915965 people voted early.
Milwaukee is leading with 148998 votes
Dane is second with 146530 votes
Waukesha is third with 76136 votes
Brown is fourth with 47303 votes
Outagamie is fifth with 31061 votes
Other than that Kenosha casted 22884 votes
La cross casted 20474 votes
Racine casted 25161 votes
Rock casted 24065 votes
Washington casted 20258 votes
Winnebago casted 27659 votes.

[Rep Jessica]

Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

Rep 47,943
Dem 37,917
NPA/Other 16,993
Total 102,853

Cumulative total:

Rep 200,986
Dem 190,532
NPA/Other 75,220
Total 466,738

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

safe to say, republicans are churning out their votes on Day 2 so far

[kireev]

=- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.=

In IA voters requested 783K mail ballots, which is about 50% of the 2016 turnout. In 2020 turnout is going to be higher, so mail in votes are going to be maybe around 45% of the total votes or so? Republicans can easily close that gap on the election day. The problem is that Rep turnout in 2016 was 87%, Dem 80% and no party 69%. (I am comparing the numbers in this article https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/13/analysis-trumps-iowa-victory-fueled-republican-turnout-independents/96496834/ to the voter registration numbers in November of 2016 https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf).  Almost 7 point difference in turnout between Republicans and Democrats - that's pretty big. Republicans can definitely catch up on the election day - and they probably will. But at this point it does not look like there is going to be a 7 point difference in turnout between Dems and Reps.

[Rep Jessica]

Oregon
https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

[Bootes Void]

Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

Rep 47,943
Dem 37,917
NPA/Other 16,993
Total 102,853

Cumulative total:

Rep 200,986
Dem 190,532
NPA/Other 75,220
Total 466,738

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

safe to say, republicans are churning out their votes on Day 2 so far

alot of smaller Florida counties arent reporting their in person results, I wonder whats going on there

[Gass3268]

Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

Rep 47,943
Dem 37,917
NPA/Other 16,993
Total 102,853

Cumulative total:

Rep 200,986
Dem 190,532
NPA/Other 75,220
Total 466,738

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

safe to say, republicans are churning out their votes on Day 2 so far

alot of smaller Florida counties arent reporting their in person results, I wonder whats going on there

They start early vote later.

[mijan]

=- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.=

In IA voters requested 783K mail ballots, which is about 50% of the 2016 turnout. In 2020 turnout is going to be higher, so mail in votes are going to be maybe around 45% of the total votes or so? Republicans can easily close that gap on the election day. The problem is that Rep turnout in 2016 was 87%, Dem 80% and no party 69%. (I am comparing the numbers in this article https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/13/analysis-trumps-iowa-victory-fueled-republican-turnout-independents/96496834/ to the voter registration numbers in November of 2016 https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf).  Almost 7 point difference in turnout between Republicans and Democrats - that's pretty big. Republicans can definitely catch up on the election day - and they probably will. But at this point it does not look like there is going to be a 7 point difference in turnout between Dems and Reps.

IA requested 827572 early votes, which is 53% of  1566031 votes casted in 2016 turnout. So I think early vote will be 50% of total vote in Iowa.
4 years ago early vote was 43% of total vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

PA finally crosses a million.  Still a lot of votes out from Philly suburbs. 

[mijan]

DEMS are also winning independents in Iowa in polls.
Among 827 k early vote request
Dems 412370
Rep 256992
No party 154926
Dems get 155378 advantage, if they win Independents by 10 then another 17 k votes advantages to Dem then Dem can have early vote advantage of 170 k votes. Then Reps have lower return rate it can give Dems another 10k vote advantage.


Overcoming 180 k votes difference will be a tough task for GOP.

[Gass3268]

I'm still in awe with how the voting behaviors of Democrats and Republicans essentially flipped in Florida and Nevada.  

[redjohn]

It's encouraging for Wisconsin Dems that the highest absentee return rate in the state is in Dane, the state's second largest county which will end up voting at least 75% Biden.

[Gass3268]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

PA finally crosses a million.  Still a lot of votes out from Philly suburbs. 

We also hit 25% of 2016 votes nationwide, with nothing from New York.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm still in awe with how the voting behaviors of Democrats and Republicans essentially flipped in Florida and Nevada.  

Democrats responding to pandemic safety guidelines

Republicans responding to cult leader

[Non Swing Voter]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318609760988659714
I hope Dems can close the gap a bit as VBM is progressing along nicely

[JerryArkansas]

Here in Arkansas, at least 33912 voted yesterday early.

[wbrocks67]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

The Pennsylvania #s are insane - We've hit 1.03 million ballots and Democrats still account for a whopping 73% of them.

Not just that - but Dems have a 42% return rate right now. Reps are lagging at 27%.