Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not getting my hopes up.  When the 700 point Dow slide and the debate make their way into the polls tomorrow, I expect Obama to get a 2 point bounce tomorrow.

Wouldn't the 700 point slide already be factored into these polls?

[Rowan]

I'm not getting my hopes up.  When the 700 point Dow slide and the debate make their way into the polls tomorrow, I expect Obama to get a 2 point bounce tomorrow.

Wouldn't the 700 point slide already be factored into these polls?

Yeah how about today's 400 point gain?

[ChrisFromNJ]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the presidential race.

[Wall St. Wiz]

I'm not getting my hopes up.  When the 700 point Dow slide and the debate make their way into the polls tomorrow, I expect Obama to get a 2 point bounce tomorrow.

Wouldn't the 700 point slide already be factored into these polls?

Yeah how about today's 400 point gain?

Yeah it is partially factored in, but I think the media coverage at night when people get home from work and in the papers the next morning do have an effect that takes more then one day to see in the polls.

[Rowan]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the stock market!

Well that made zero sense.

[J. J.]

Like I said, "unless you are one of us and follow the polls closely."  You know that there is a difference, but it is very likely that most people won't.

You're being intellectually dishonest. YOU know the difference.

First, I'm not Drudge, who ran the headline.

Second, I wasn't complaining when, last week, the media touted the 11 point "lead" in Gallup, so I'm not treating Drudge any differently; the other poll, Rasmussen, and the "lesser polls" did not show that.  As I said, "accurate as far as it goes."   Unlike you, and the media, I'm not being hypocritical about it.

And I do agree that this does not reflect any reaction to the debate.

[ChrisFromNJ]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the stock market!

Well that made zero sense.

You know what I meant.

I edited it.

[J. J.]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the stock market!

Well that made zero sense.

You know what I meant.

I edited it.

I think they can, but not trading within a range, which is what we have, so far.

[muon2]

If Gallup and the other polls show some closing in the margin that may not be to surprising. I've cited the 1976 race previously where Ford closed a similar mid Oct gap to get within 2% by election day. Gore likewise was the candidate of the incumbent party and closed a lesser gap to take the popular vote.

[Sam Spade]

Nate Silver's attack today on Drudge's poll placement is amusing...

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/16/today-s-polls-just-say-no-to-drudge.aspx

[classical liberal]

If Gallup and the other polls show some closing in the margin that may not be to surprising. I've cited the 1976 race previously where Ford closed a similar mid Oct gap to get within 2% by election day. Gore likewise was the candidate of the incumbent party and closed a lesser gap to take the popular vote.

The people who haven't already decided to vote against the incumbent party by the time early voting starts are overwhelmingly likely to never decide to do so.  As much hay has been made of this election being a referendum on Obama (i.e., the dominant media narrative), it is really about Bush.  More specifically, it is about the degree to which Independents ascribe to McCain the specific things about Bush that they dislike.  If someone has yet decided that McCain is too much like Bush to support by now, they likely will not have done so by the time that they vote.

[J. J.]

Nate Silver's attack today on Drudge's poll placement is amusing...

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/16/today-s-polls-just-say-no-to-drudge.aspx

Quite humorous, considering he has Rasmussen numbers off by two. 

[Eraserhead]

Nate Silver's attack today on Drudge's poll placement is amusing...

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/16/today-s-polls-just-say-no-to-drudge.aspx

Good stuff.

[TheGlobalizer]

Prevent Defense sucks.

Haha...as a Ravens fan under the Billick regime, we were very familiar with the prevent defense.

We probably lost 2-3 games/year that way.

[© tweed]

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

[Wiz in Wis]

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

ZOMG Obama's slipping again by not leading by 10!!!!!!11!!1eleventy

[Ronnie]

Things seem to have stayed the same after the debate.  It seems to be Obama + 4 nationally.

[J. J.]

I'd be keeping my eye on this one; McCain tends to do better on Gallup late week on Gallup (at least over the summer).

[Likely Voter]

if the race tightens more, it will start showing competing leaders...depending on which LV model.

So this election will be all about turnout and if the new voters, the african american voters and the young voters really do show up or not.

[J. J.]

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

Okay, why did MSNBC just announce that Obama was up 5 points since Tuesday?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

if the race tightens more, it will start showing competing leaders...depending on which LV model.

So this election will be all about turnout and if the new voters, the african american voters and the young voters really do show up or not.

The black voters are going to show up.  The young?  Who knows.... probably to an extent but not in any kind of massive numbers.  

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

[Keystone Phil]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

I've never said that, Obama has never said that, the media won't ever say that.

[Keystone Phil]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

I've never said that

McCain is finished.