Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Religion Remains Major Dividing Factor Among White Voters [5 September, 2008]

Patterns similar to 2004

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-Among-White-Voters.aspx

Gallup Daily Tracking Polling Results, by Church Attendance Among Non-Hispanic whites

Attend church weekly: Obama 26% (Kerry 27%) / McCain 65% (Bush 66%)

Attend church weekly/monthly: Obama 41% (Kerry 36%) / McCain 50% (Bush 62%)

Attend church seldom/never: Obama 51% (Kerry 53%) / McCain 39% (Bush 40%)

Based on weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking Sept. 1-3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll Oct 29-31, 2004

Dave

[KeyKeeper]

We will know on Monday if John McCain had a good bump in the polls or not. Also the debates will play a big part in the polls too. So this thing is long from over.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

Yeah, because she's in your words "a dumb c*nt".

yup

[Brittain33]

Friday - September 5, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

While the difference between today's result and Thursday's 49% to 42% lead for Obama is not statistically significant, some of the broader shifts seen over the past 10 days, spanning both party's national conventions, have been meaningful.

Support for Obama since just before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on Aug. 25 has ranged from 44% to 50%, while McCain's support has ranged from 41% to 46%. Whereas the race was initially tied at 45%, Obama pulled into an eight-point lead at several points over the course of his convention. It now appears the Republican National Convention may be helping McCain to recoup some of his losses, though with Obama's current four-point lead, the entire convention period to this point has still been a net plus for Obama. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

While both conventions are now over, measurement of public reaction to them is not. Results, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 2-4, include just one day of interviewing conducted after Wednesday night's widely viewed acceptance speech by McCain's vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Most interviewing Thursday night was conducted before McCain's acceptance speech, so Gallup Poll Daily tracking results will start to reflect its impact in Saturday's report. The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion.

[Eraserhead]

It seems like Obama is holding up about as well as you could expect, so far.

[J. J.]

It seems like Obama is holding up about as well as you could expect, so far.

No, that is only a one day sample after Palin's speech.

Monday for the bump, but check out the numbers for Thursday or Friday of next week.  We'll have some idea at this point.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like Obama is holding up about as well as you could expect, so far.

No, that is only a one day sample after Palin's speech.

Monday for the bump, but check out the numbers for Thursday or Friday of next week.  We'll have some idea at this point.

All we need is a new CO poll in the next 2 weeks and PPP will provide one.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, I agree with JJ on this point as to what and when to check.  Tuesday is also as good as Monday, really.

Strangely enough, I also do agree with him that there appears to be a continual mid-week/weekend bias for the two candidates, though I really have no clue how important it is.

[Nym90]

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

McCain pulling the same share of Democrats, Republicans and independents would mean he'd lose by a couple of points.

But I thought this is a "center right" country.

[J. J.]

Ya, I agree with JJ on this point as to what and when to check.  Tuesday is also as good as Monday, really.

Strangely enough, I also do agree with him that there appears to be a continual mid-week/weekend bias for the two candidates, though I really have no clue how important it is.

The weekend/weekday bounce seems limited to Gallup.  I think, based on that, it is their sample selection.

[Nym90]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

[Dan the Roman]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

I think Reagan was behind in a number of polls after his convention. That said, the polls that year were very similar to this one with both candidates in the mid to low forties. I believe going into the debates Carter was up something like 47-43.

[Person Man]

I think Obama will maintain a 2% lead coming out of this thing. That will mean that McCain's last oppurtunity is the debates. The only asset in the debates is Biden. The only liability, Palin.

[J. J.]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

I think it will be had to measure this.  Obama was tied, or down by 1-2 going into this.  He was up by between 0-8 points after the DNC, when Palin was announced and RNC started.

I think Reagan was behind in a number of polls after his convention. That said, the polls that year were very similar to this one with both candidates in the mid to low forties. I believe going into the debates Carter was up something like 47-43.

Reagan was at 45, Carter at 29, after the 1980 RNC; Carter had 39, Reagan 38, after the DNC.  It was, if anything, less clear than 2008.

[KeyKeeper]

Also, not only do you have to look at National polls, but State polls too. Because it is all about the EV not the PV. I believe come Nov. 1st if McCain is with in 2% of Obama, Obama will not win the election.

[Alcon]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

[Sam Spade]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Sounds about right.

[J. J.]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Sounds about right.

We had the CBS poll at +8 on 9/1.

[Alcon]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Sounds about right.

We had the CBS poll at +8 on 9/1.

Right?  9/1 was a strong day for Obama in the tracking polls too (+11 on Rasmussen, +10 on Gallup)

[Verily]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Is that reverse order or actual order? (Was Obama +1 yesterday or Tuesday?)

[Sam Spade]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Is that reverse order or actual order? (Was Obama +1 yesterday or Tuesday?)

The O+1 would have almost certainly been yesterday.

[Alcon]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Is that reverse order or actual order? (Was Obama +1 yesterday or Tuesday?)

The O+1 would have almost certainly been yesterday.

Yeah, sorry.

[Nym90]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

I think Reagan was behind in a number of polls after his convention. That said, the polls that year were very similar to this one with both candidates in the mid to low forties. I believe going into the debates Carter was up something like 47-43.

I was referring to being behind immediately after the convention, not behind at any point after the convention.

Reagan had a pretty big convention bounce in the Gallup poll and had a pretty substantial lead at that point as I recall.

[Nym90]

Question for those who know the history better than me: Has any candidate ever won an election in which they were tied or behind immediately after their own convention? I'm quite sure it's never happened, except possibly for Truman in 1948 (when polling was obviously not at the level of accuracy it is today).

I'd think this is basically McCain's goal at this point as to what kind of a bounce he needs.

I think it will be had to measure this.  Obama was tied, or down by 1-2 going into this.  He was up by between 0-8 points after the DNC, when Palin was announced and RNC started.

I think Reagan was behind in a number of polls after his convention. That said, the polls that year were very similar to this one with both candidates in the mid to low forties. I believe going into the debates Carter was up something like 47-43.

Reagan was at 45, Carter at 29, after the 1980 RNC; Carter had 39, Reagan 38, after the DNC.  It was, if anything, less clear than 2008.

Ah, thanks. Last post was made before I read this one.

[Lunar]

day-to-day, per 538: