Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Those Hispanic numbers can't possibly be right can they?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

Interesting:

A seperate USAToday/Gallup poll taken June 15-19 shows Obama leading by a wider margin.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 50%-44%.

Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.

Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.

The poll shows sharp divisions between the two candidates along lines of sex, race and age:

• Women support Obama by 14 points while men back McCain by 3 points.

• Whites support McCain by 6 points while blacks almost unanimously back Obama, who is the first African-American to claim a major party's presidential nomination. Of 130 blacks surveyed, 129 support the Illinois senator.

• Young people back Obama while seniors support McCain. Among those 18 to 29 years old, Obama holds a better than 2-1 edge. Among those 65 and older, McCain leads, 49%-40%.

There were significant regional differences as well. McCain leads in the South, Obama on both the East and West coasts. In the battleground Midwest, Obama is ahead 48%-40%.

The survey of 1,625 adults — including 1,460 registered voters and 1,310 likely voters — has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-20-poll-friday_N.htm

Wow, blacks might be almost unanimous. 

I think people are underestimating the bump he is going to get from them. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think this is a plateau that is going to form for Obama that is not going to really go down at all.  After his speech, he'll go up to about +8, +9 in the tracking polls, back down to +3,+4 after the GOP convention, wind up gaining a couple points in the debate, and win by 6 on election night. 

Why do I believe this?  Because this election is ALL about Obama.  Whether you love him, hate him, not ready to vote for him, kinda want to vote for him.... etc. etc.  McCain is about as important to this election as Kerry was in 2004.  It's safe choice (McCain) vs. risk (Obama)... in a year when Americans will take a risk. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

Yeah, because she's in your words "a dumb c*nt".

yup

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

Heh....her

I'm guessing you're talking about Palin.  I want to know what you have to say about the fact that she once tried to have certain books banned in her town as mayor...  Seriously.  All you Palin freaks, answer to that. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This thing is going to settle back into a modest Obama lead that's only going to get worse for McCain over the course of the debates. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The media has been nothing but friendly to McCain and Palin.  God, Palin should be getting destroyed for those embarrassing interviews. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

if the race tightens more, it will start showing competing leaders...depending on which LV model.

So this election will be all about turnout and if the new voters, the african american voters and the young voters really do show up or not.

The black voters are going to show up.  The young?  Who knows.... probably to an extent but not in any kind of massive numbers.