Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[minionofmidas]

But the weekend/weekday bounces are just a figment of your imagination.

Except other people noticed them on Gallup.  He's one from an Obama supporter on DU.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5393055#5393230

They sort of existed. For a while. They've been gone since the Conventions, and will not return.

[Joe Republic]

Tuesday, October 7:

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 42 (nc)

[GMantis]

Tuesday, October 7:

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 42 (nc)

Damn it! You beat me by 5 seconds.
Anyway, this is the largest Obama lead since August and the highest percentage he got in the Gallup tracking.

[Wiz in Wis]

"you havin poll problems, I feel bad for you son, I got 99 problems but Gallup Trackin aint one"

[Eraserhead]

Finally over 50

[Democratic Hawk]

Voters See Economic Plans as Net Plus for Obama

McCain economic pln more likely to repel than attact voters

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111037/Voters-See-Economic-Plans-Net-Plus-Obama.aspx

Effect of Candidates' Economic and Tax Plans On Vote

Obama: More likely 43%; No difference 20%; Less likely 33% (net +10)
McCain: More likely 30%; No difference 21%; Less likely 44% (net -14)

Effect of Candidates' Positions on Iraq Waw of Vote

Obama (opposed war): More likely 43%; No difference 26%; Less likely 31% (net +12)
McCain (supported war) More likely 32%; No difference 27%; Less likely 40% (net -8)

Effect of Candidates' Positions on the Iraq Surge

Obama (opposed surge): More likely 32%; No difference 29%; Less likely 38% (net -6)
McCain (supported surge): More likely 38%; No difference 30%; Less likely 30% (net +8)

Effect of Candidates' Race on Vote

Obama: More likely 9%; No difference 85%; Less likely 6% (net +3)
McCain: More likely 7%; No difference 87%; Less likely 6% (net +1)

Effect of Candidates' Age on Vote

Obama: More likely 24%; No difference 67%; Less likely 9% (net +15)
McCain: More likely 7%; No difference 55%; Less likely 38% (net -31)

Meanwhile, Biden helps Obama (net +18); but Palin doesn't help McCain (net -8)

Gallup Poll, Oct. 3-5, 2008

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

[riceowl]

huh.

[Wiz in Wis]

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Tender Branson]

Never thought Gallup would show a "better" result than Dailykos ...

[ucscgaldamez]

WTF?

[J. J.]

Could be a pro Obama sample.  Wait for the next polls.

[ucscgaldamez]

Three nights in a row with double digit leads? Impressive!

However, I don't think he can go higher than this.

[JohnCA246]

what the heck

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain.

Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.

Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor").

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

It's not like they are all Obama +11 (unfortunately)

[BlueSwan]

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Those differences are just crazy. I don't know what to conclude at the moment, but since Rasmussen sits in the middle, maybe they're on to something?

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

It's not like they are all Obama +11 (unfortunately)

Unfortunately ? No. I'd rather like a constant 6-point lead than a 10%+ lead, because 6% is the margin where people don't stay at home because they think the race might be over in Obama's favor and 6% is also the margin where a very slight Bradley effect might be absorbed.

[Verily]

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Those differences are just crazy. I don't know what to conclude at the moment, but since Rasmussen sits in the middle, maybe they're on to something?

It's not hard to look at these relatively objectively. First of all, toss Zogby, it's worthless. Diageo I have had some faith in, but they've been prone to big swings, so I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to them. While initially I was willing to give benefit of the doubt to the DKos tracker, it's clear they've been fiddling with the partisan weights, so scrap it. Battleground has had weighting problems this whole time, so I have no faith in them even though they've fixed some of their most egregious problems.

So it's really just Gallup and Rasmussen. And 8-9 points feels reasonable right now.

[Eraserhead]

Awesome. I just wish Rasmussen was showing similar numbers.

[J. J.]

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Those differences are just crazy. I don't know what to conclude at the moment, but since Rasmussen sits in the middle, maybe they're on to something?

It's not hard to look at these relatively objectively. First of all, toss Zogby, it's worthless. Diageo I have had some faith in, but they've been prone to big swings, so I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to them. While initially I was willing to give benefit of the doubt to the DKos tracker, it's clear they've been fiddling with the partisan weights, so scrap it. Battleground has had weighting problems this whole time, so I have no faith in them even though they've fixed some of their most egregious problems.

So it's really just Gallup and Rasmussen. And 8-9 points feels reasonable right now.

Diageo Hotline had what looks like a bad sample drop out.  Other than that, it isn't too unstable.  I am, however, not too familiar with its track record, so I'm reserving judgment on it.

Either Gallup or Rasmussen has a bad sample.  It's too soon to tell, but look for one of them to shift dramatically.

[Lunar]

Or they both do and will soon be regressing to the mean.

[Eraserhead]

Or they both do and will soon be regressing to the mean.

This is probably more likely.

[J. J.]

Or they both do and will soon be regressing to the mean.

Actually, the odds are 1 in 400 that this will happen.