Remarkable Democratic overperformance of PRES approval in Senate races

[ElectionsGuy]

During the Trump years, in 2018 and particularly in 2020, Republicans and Trump himself did not poll at or above Trump's approval rating, even when it was as low as Biden's right now. But now, there are all these independent voters who disapprove of Biden but are committing to voting Democratic... in January? Yeah, doesn't sound sketchy at all. Why do the polls always suggest Dems will overperform their fundamentals? I don't believe they're getting a representative sample of independents. In 2020 I saw polls constantly showing Biden getting 60% of independents with a D+4 electorate. He actually got 54% with a D+1 electorate. It wouldn't surprise me if something like that is happening again, so many of these polls still suggest Dems will outnumber R's in total electorate when there's a good chance the opposite will happen based on many indicators. How many 2020 polls suggesting Biden was winning people who had an unfavorable view of both candidates? And then Trump won them anyway, indicating a lack of right-leaning independents in many of these polls.

While it's not difficult for Democrats to poll above Biden's lousy approval rating right now, the lion's share of these voters who disapprove of Biden but claim to support Dems are not Democrats as people like to believe, they are independents. Only a small share of Democrats disapprove of Biden, and they will always vote D.

But here's what else is weird. It was easier for people to differentiate Trump and congressional R's, as there were out in the open strategic, behavior, and policy differences. Biden and congressional D's are much more attached at the hip, with just about all of them supporting his agenda, Biden himself is the epitome of "Generic D", so why are some of these polls claiming Dem politicians are getting so much more support than Biden? When that didn't happen for Republicans in the Trump years? Just screams red flags to me.