FL-Susquehanna: DeSantis +3 (Crist), +10 (Fried)

[Dan the Roman]

I mentioned this in the other thread but DeSantis is much weaker for reelection in 2022 than he would be for winning Florida in 2024. 2024 would be about DeSantis v. Biden. But many of those voters do not need DeSantis. And the marginal loss from DeSantis being eliminated in 2022 from the 2024 pool is nonexistent.

Hence there is a real block of GOP leaning Presidential voters who do not want Florida governed or as it is not governed by a 2024 candidate/aspiring future national figure who in the near universal view of much of the business community, and the local power brokers in Miami-Dade who helped Trump carry it, is actively destabilizing the state(see the fights with the cruise industry which are hurting Florida, and the legislature's refusal to come back into session to allow DeSantis to pass more grandstanding laws).

For a decent group of voters then, DeSantis being viable in 2024 is not worth having to put up with the sort of governance they have had so far in 2021.

Lockdowns are not popular
DeSantis was popular for his handling of Covid in 2020.
But all his fights with everyone - with hospital associations, with local governments, with the cruise industry, with Disney - is not. He is fighting Florida institutions , ie. that is what the theme parks, cruise lines, etc are seen as, in order to pander to a national crowd. People on this site who want him to be a national figure miss that national figures are almost always less popular at home as a consequence even if they still win. It is hard to find a single example of a governor or Senator who focused on national rather than local. Heck, even Tom Cotton saw a Libertarian win 34% in 2020.

2024 is probably generically
53% Desantis
47% Biden

but that is perfectly compatible with that electorate also being

48% DeSantis
46% Acceptable Alternative
6% Undecided

The issue is "acceptable alternative". Had Crist retired in 2011, not run for Governor, not been a Democratic congressman and returned from retirement to retake the governorship in 2022, I actually think he would be favored over DeSantis for Florida/local reasons separate from the national stuff too many online folks care about. Crist is compromised now. Question is how much.

But there is a delusion in a lot of places Desantis is stronger in 2022 than 2024. It is the exact opposite. He is substantially weaker. DeSantis has zero crossover appeal in August of 2021 to anyone likely to vote Democratic for President in 2024. His problem is there are a bunch of folks who are willing to vote Republican for President in 2024 including for him who think this war on everyone to get cheers out of state needs to end. Republicans are unable to make money in Florida at the moment because of this grandstanding.

[Dan the Roman]

DeSantis is clearly favored, and Fried is clearly a weaker candidate than Crist, who has now been a candidate in four statewide elections (two for Senate, two for Governor), and has run as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat. I'm thinking a DeSantis victory by an ~5-8% margin is the most logical outcome at this point.

That seems a bit high. I think that is his margin in a 2024 GE for president, but he seems much more likely to do worse in 2022 than 2024 all things being equal. It is much easier to come up with Florida Republican leaning voters who would prefer him over Biden/Harris, but wish they had a different Republican as governor than Democrats or others who like him as governor but want a Democrat as president. Those may have existed in the summer and fall of 2020, but this summer and spring likely has wiped out his crossover appeal. Not merely on policy but on tone.

Crist is weak as a retread. But he is a bit dangerous insofar as Crist/Bush Republicans are likely the constituency most likely to make the difference between a 49-48 Desantis loss and a 52-46 win.

The problem for Democrats is that the swing voters for anything less than a DeSantis 6 point win are Republicans who probably in a generic race favor a Republican for Governor.

In short, I think DeSantis has much deeper support than generic R but I think there is a lot of evidence that he no longer has broader support than generic Florida R.