FL-Susquehanna: DeSantis +3 (Crist), +10 (Fried)

[wbrocks67]

DeSantis (R) 46%
Crist (D) 43%

DeSantis (R) 50%
Frired (D) 40%

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;board=116.0

[wbrocks67]

This also has his overall approval at 52/43, which even for FL seems pretty high.

[Sir Mohamed]

X Doubt

The difference is kind of weird, especially that DeathSantis is at 46% and 50%, respectively. Fried having a lower share can be attributed to name rec, but I struggle to believe Crist pulls over that many GOP voters. For sure I won't get fooled by FL polls anymore, this race is Likely R unless hard evidence in the fall of next year suggest otherwise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

X Doubt

The difference is kind of weird, especially that DeathSantis is at 46% and 50%, respectively. Fried having a lower share can be attributed to name rec, but I struggle to believe Crist pulls over that many GOP voters. For sure I won't get fooled by FL polls anymore, this race is Likely R unless hard evidence in the fall of next year suggest otherwise.

You are a DeSantis apologist, why do you doubt he might lose he only won by .5% and that was against Andrew Gillium

[Donerail]

We love CHARLIE

[Dan the Roman]

I mentioned this in the other thread but DeSantis is much weaker for reelection in 2022 than he would be for winning Florida in 2024. 2024 would be about DeSantis v. Biden. But many of those voters do not need DeSantis. And the marginal loss from DeSantis being eliminated in 2022 from the 2024 pool is nonexistent.

Hence there is a real block of GOP leaning Presidential voters who do not want Florida governed or as it is not governed by a 2024 candidate/aspiring future national figure who in the near universal view of much of the business community, and the local power brokers in Miami-Dade who helped Trump carry it, is actively destabilizing the state(see the fights with the cruise industry which are hurting Florida, and the legislature's refusal to come back into session to allow DeSantis to pass more grandstanding laws).

For a decent group of voters then, DeSantis being viable in 2024 is not worth having to put up with the sort of governance they have had so far in 2021.

Lockdowns are not popular
DeSantis was popular for his handling of Covid in 2020.
But all his fights with everyone - with hospital associations, with local governments, with the cruise industry, with Disney - is not. He is fighting Florida institutions , ie. that is what the theme parks, cruise lines, etc are seen as, in order to pander to a national crowd. People on this site who want him to be a national figure miss that national figures are almost always less popular at home as a consequence even if they still win. It is hard to find a single example of a governor or Senator who focused on national rather than local. Heck, even Tom Cotton saw a Libertarian win 34% in 2020.

2024 is probably generically
53% Desantis
47% Biden

but that is perfectly compatible with that electorate also being

48% DeSantis
46% Acceptable Alternative
6% Undecided

The issue is "acceptable alternative". Had Crist retired in 2011, not run for Governor, not been a Democratic congressman and returned from retirement to retake the governorship in 2022, I actually think he would be favored over DeSantis for Florida/local reasons separate from the national stuff too many online folks care about. Crist is compromised now. Question is how much.

But there is a delusion in a lot of places Desantis is stronger in 2022 than 2024. It is the exact opposite. He is substantially weaker. DeSantis has zero crossover appeal in August of 2021 to anyone likely to vote Democratic for President in 2024. His problem is there are a bunch of folks who are willing to vote Republican for President in 2024 including for him who think this war on everyone to get cheers out of state needs to end. Republicans are unable to make money in Florida at the moment because of this grandstanding.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  This is traditionally a Republican-leaning firm and it has Rubio up by 11 in the same poll.

[Donerail]

Lockdowns are not popular
DeSantis was popular for his handling of Covid in 2020.
But all his fights with everyone - with hospital associations, with local governments, with the cruise industry, with Disney - is not. He is fighting Florida institutions , ie. that is what the theme parks, cruise lines, etc are seen as, in order to pander to a national crowd. People on this site who want him to be a national figure miss that national figures are almost always less popular at home as a consequence even if they still win. It is hard to find a single example of a governor or Senator who focused on national rather than local. Heck, even Tom Cotton saw a Libertarian win 34% in 2020.

On a more serious note, this is correct, and I think you will see it come to a head this week. Schools just reopened, and some of the numbers coming out of the schools are very alarming — Hillsborough, which is considering instituting a mask mandate right now, has ~5% of all students either testing positive or quarantined as a close contact in the first week of school. Even among people who don't support mask mandates generally, it seems like there's a decent chunk who are fine with it as a county-by-county measure decided by local school boards in response to locally high case rates.

But DeSantis can't just let counties make their own decisions; he's got a presidential campaign to manage. And so he's threatening to respond to this by suspending local school board members. Taking the fight to the LIBS will make a great TV ad in '24, but I can't imagine how well "removing local officials from elected office because they defied Tallahassee" is going to poll in the more immediate future.

[S019]

This same poll has Rubio up 11, so there are signs that DeSantis (at least against Crist) may underperform Rubio and substantially, too). This is a tossup, if Crist is the nominee, seems like Lean R, with Fried.

[brucejoel99]

This also has his overall approval at 52/43, which even for FL seems pretty high.

Don't underestimate the evident extent of my state's love for COVID-19.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only problem is that Fried is winning the primary whom trails by 10

[TodayJunior]

This also has his overall approval at 52/43, which even for FL seems pretty high.

Don't underestimate the evident extent of my state's love for COVID-19.

RIGHT!!?

[Progressive Pessimist]

So this translates into DeSantis+6 and DeSantis+15 respectively.

We love CHARLIE

You had the opportunity to prove that in 2014, and didn't.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't feel good about Democratic chances here. Their choices are perennial candidate Charlie Crist and grifter Nikki Fried.

[Donerail]

So this translates into DeSantis+6 and DeSantis+15 respectively.

We love CHARLIE

You had the opportunity to prove that in 2014, and didn't.

I see you are unskewing the polls again! Always a recipe for success.

[UncleSam]

DeSantis+3 seems like a reasonable prediction this far out. In a state as polarized as FL I doubt this will be decided by a large margin regardless, but a 3-5 point R victory in FL is a lot more stubborn / hard to overcome than the same margin in almost any other state.

[Calthrina950]

DeSantis is clearly favored, and Fried is clearly a weaker candidate than Crist, who has now been a candidate in four statewide elections (two for Senate, two for Governor), and has run as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat. I'm thinking a DeSantis victory by an ~5-8% margin is the most logical outcome at this point.

[Dan the Roman]

DeSantis is clearly favored, and Fried is clearly a weaker candidate than Crist, who has now been a candidate in four statewide elections (two for Senate, two for Governor), and has run as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat. I'm thinking a DeSantis victory by an ~5-8% margin is the most logical outcome at this point.

That seems a bit high. I think that is his margin in a 2024 GE for president, but he seems much more likely to do worse in 2022 than 2024 all things being equal. It is much easier to come up with Florida Republican leaning voters who would prefer him over Biden/Harris, but wish they had a different Republican as governor than Democrats or others who like him as governor but want a Democrat as president. Those may have existed in the summer and fall of 2020, but this summer and spring likely has wiped out his crossover appeal. Not merely on policy but on tone.

Crist is weak as a retread. But he is a bit dangerous insofar as Crist/Bush Republicans are likely the constituency most likely to make the difference between a 49-48 Desantis loss and a 52-46 win.

The problem for Democrats is that the swing voters for anything less than a DeSantis 6 point win are Republicans who probably in a generic race favor a Republican for Governor.

In short, I think DeSantis has much deeper support than generic R but I think there is a lot of evidence that he no longer has broader support than generic Florida R.

[THG]

Interesting. While Crist is definitely a better candidate than Fried, I don’t think that there will be a 7 point gap between the two. Maybe 4 or 5 at most.

Still likely R.

[THG]

Also, mask mandates and COVID restrictions are not popular in Florida. There’s a pretty good reason why the state shifted to the right by 2-3 points when the nation shifted to the left, and that reason is because the electorate in Florida doesn’t give a damn about what the COVID Karens think.

[Biden his time]

Those results make sense

Fried is fried