Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

Slight slight uptick but no groundbreaking revolts from either side.  Looks about right. 

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

Slight slight uptick but no groundbreaking revolts from either side.  Looks about right. 

If Trump is going to be reelected in a typical fashion, we will start to see him "growing" on people over the course of the winter to the point where is either controversial (barely underwater) to moderately popular (a clear plurality for Trump). I really don't expect Trump to get above 50.

I can see his numbers between now and February getting to how he initially polled at the very start of his presidency if he on track for the Democrat only getting 48% of the vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_121119.pdf/
Monmouth, Dec. 4-8, 903 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, or not?

Yes 45 (+1)
No 50 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 9-10, 1116 adults including 945 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 42 (-3)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 9-10, 1116 adults including 945 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 42 (-3)

"Impeachment is a disaster!!"

- Atlas after the Firehouse poll

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

Slight slight uptick but no groundbreaking revolts from either side.  Looks about right. 

If Trump is going to be reelected in a typical fashion, we will start to see him "growing" on people over the course of the winter to the point where is either controversial (barely underwater) to moderately popular (a clear plurality for Trump). I really don't expect Trump to get above 50.

I can see his numbers between now and February getting to how he initially polled at the very start of his presidency if he on track for the Democrat only getting 48% of the vote.

It is easy to see what President Trump would have to do to get re-elected. He needs support around 40% at the start of the campaign season to get a 50% share of the binary vote, or (in view of he Democrats' tendency to run up vote percentages in a few super-Blue [Atlas Red] states) about 48.5% of the binary vote. He is not there, and he really isn't close. Second, he must get his disapproval numbers out of the mid-50's nationwide. It is hard to recover a win in any state in which one has 52% or higher disapproval.

It is also easy to see signs of failure in state results. Trump has been near-even in Texas, a state usually straddling 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee winning the Presidential election.  OK, Texas may be inching closer to the national average in its demographics, but it should be neatly in the GOP column. It isn't. So if it straddles 360 or even 320 electoral votes for a Democrat this time -- then President Trump will be cooked like a bird sucked into a jet engine. Also, the states that Trump most barely lost seem to be spiraling away from contention.     

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, Dec. 7-11, 1411 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 50, No 47

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Today marks the first day where the RCP average of support for impeachment has split evenly

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Emerson:

Donald Trump’s job approval has improved slightly among Iowans over the course of the year. The Emerson poll back in March showed a 42% approval and 51% disapproval. In October, 44% of Iowans approved of the job Trump was doing as president and 47% disapproved. In the latest Emerson Poll, 45% approve and 46% disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. There is a huge disparity in Trump’s approval by gender. Among men, 54% approve of the job he is doing and 36% disapprove. Among women, 36% approve and 55% disapprove.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-warren-s-support-drops-while-sanders-rises

Because Trump leads everyone, I call this a tie. It could be that impeachment is causing Trump supporters to circle the wagons... but Trump won the state by high single-digits in 2016.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Gracile]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

Since impeachment is a bigger hammer than voting against the incumbent, I think it's reasonable to assume that voting intention against Trump is at least as high as impeachment support.  In that case, these numbers don't bode well for Trump:

51% support for impeachment: CO, FL, ME, MI, NV, PA, VA

49%: AZ, MN, TX, WI

48%: GA, LA(!?), NC

47%: IA

46%: NH, OH

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

Since impeachment is a bigger hammer than voting against the incumbent, I think it's reasonable to assume that voting intention against Trump is at least as high as impeachment support.  In that case, these numbers don't bode well for Trump:

51% support for impeachment: CO, FL, ME, MI, NV, PA, VA

49%: AZ, MN, TX, WI

48%: GA, LA(!?), NC

47%: IA

46%: NH, OH

In a normal world this might be true, but we live on Planet Trump now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1205089426881351681?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

Since impeachment is a bigger hammer than voting against the incumbent, I think it's reasonable to assume that voting intention against Trump is at least as high as impeachment support.  In that case, these numbers don't bode well for Trump:

51% support for impeachment: CO, FL, ME, MI, NV, PA, VA

49%: AZ, MN, TX, WI

48%: GA, LA(!?), NC

47%: IA

46%: NH, OH

In a normal world this might be true, but we live on Planet Trump now.

Anyway some of these numbers don’t make any sense

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

Since impeachment is a bigger hammer than voting against the incumbent, I think it's reasonable to assume that voting intention against Trump is at least as high as impeachment support.  In that case, these numbers don't bode well for Trump:

51% support for impeachment: CO, FL, ME, MI, NV, PA, VA

49%: AZ, MN, TX, WI

48%: GA, LA(!?), NC

47%: IA

46%: NH, OH

In a normal world this might be true, but we live on Planet Trump now.

Anyway some of these numbers don’t make any sense

They're inconsistent, to say the least.  I think the methodology here is interesting, but it's questionable how sound it is.  G. Elliott Morris has a thread with more details for those interested: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1205160992180723712.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1205089426881351681?s=20

It fills some gaps in the polling map. No surprises, but 45 electoral votes is nothing to sneeze at.

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

[Hammy]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

I wouldn't take opposing impeach and remove as meaning supporting Trump--I am opposed because it's a bad idea to have an acquittal on the eve of the election, and because I know Pence is far, far worse than Trump because he doesn't wear how incompetent and evil he is on his sleeve.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

I wouldn't take opposing impeach and remove as meaning supporting Trump--I am opposed because it's a bad idea to have an acquittal on the eve of the election, and because I know Pence is far, far worse than Trump because he doesn't wear how incompetent and evil he is on his sleeve.

I also wonder if Wisconsinites might be a little more leery of impeachment after living through the extremely divisive attempted recall of Scott Walker a few years ago.

[Cinemark]

Also should be noted that the 2018 WI exit polls had Trump at 48/51.

[pbrower2a]

Also should be noted that the 2018 WI exit polls had Trump at 48/51.

Movement within the margin of error. I wouldn't make anything of it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

I wouldn't take opposing impeach and remove as meaning supporting Trump--I am opposed because it's a bad idea to have an acquittal on the eve of the election, and because I know Pence is far, far worse than Trump because he doesn't wear how incompetent and evil he is on his sleeve.

I'm pretty sure that your perspective on impeachment is far from common.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette, Dec. 3-8, 800 RV (prior poll Nov. 13-17)

Approve 47 (nc)
Disaspprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 40 (nc), No 52 (-1)

WHY!? Why do the worst states always have to be the most important! We're so f***ed next year...

I wouldn't take opposing impeach and remove as meaning supporting Trump--I am opposed because it's a bad idea to have an acquittal on the eve of the election, and because I know Pence is far, far worse than Trump because he doesn't wear how incompetent and evil he is on his sleeve.

I'm pretty sure that your perspective on impeachment is far from common.

In view of the menace that this President has posed to national security, the political process must impeach President Trump even if such is inconvenient, futile, or ill-timed. How the President is acquitted (and don't fool yourselves -- he will be acquitted for partisan purposes and by means that one can explain solely with partisanship) matters, too. A whitewash will look bad for Republicans seeking re-election.