Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

In the past, yes.

If Russia is cultivating closer ties with both China and India then it's separately and as a way to keep its options open, not as part of some sort of Authoritarian Emerging Powers Bloc.

[Splash]

Indiscriminate bombardment. Now there's the Russia I know.

https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1497274303989100544

[StateBoiler]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

JFC, this is the exact opposite of what happened

Russian proxies never implemented Minsk protocols and Ukraine did as much as they could with uniformed Russian troops regularly shooting at them, the ‘security guarantees’ amounted to completely disarming Ukraine so that Russia could invade it, the ‘security guarantees’ they asked for from the West was the complete abandonment of Eastern Europe. And the regularly monitored and reported on troop movements and predicted the Russian invasion to the date. The only people that thought they were bluffing were the Germans for some damn reason.

Don’t your desire to be clever cloud your judgement, that way lies Tucker Carlson.

I didn't say Russia was in the right. I was dumbing down their argument.

[StateBoiler]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

In the past, yes.

China is literally building fake villages near Bhutan and the northeast of India to try to claim contested territory. The conflict is very much still real there.

The two countries have had border skirmishes since 2020 high up in the Himalayas that's resulted in handfuls of deaths both sides. It's probably the next most sketchy thing in world security after this Russian conflict and Covid.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

[Badger]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

 That is the most grossly inaccurate Accounting of events I can imagine someone presenting with a straight face.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

?! How is someone who is advocating for NATO members to take a stronger stance and to actually develop their militaries spreading Russian propaganda?

[StateBoiler]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

Some people are just dumb.

If you actually are Ukrainian - it's hard to tell because most people on this forum lie about where they're from - I'm sorry, dude. Best of luck to you.

[Badger]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

Some people are just dumb.

If you actually are Ukrainian - it's hard to tell because most people on this forum lie about where they're from - I'm sorry, dude. Best of luck to you.

 Mr. X is a lawyer in central Ohio.  And hes right.

[KaiserDave]

Hilariously pro Russia screed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

Some people are just dumb.

If you actually are Ukrainian - it's hard to tell because most people on this forum lie about where they're from - I'm sorry, dude. Best of luck to you.

I’m not Ukrainian.  I just have a Ukrainian avatar as a small, admittedly insignificant, show of support for the Ukrainians fighting to defend their country.  Sort of like how you (presumably) aren’t Russian, but could just as easily have a Russian avatar to reflect your support for a brutal dictatorship launching a completely unprovoked war of aggression in an effort to destroy a neighboring democracy.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

Some people are just dumb.

If you actually are Ukrainian - it's hard to tell because most people on this forum lie about where they're from - I'm sorry, dude. Best of luck to you.

Do you not know it's common tradition to change your avatar to a different place briefly in support of the people of the place? Yeah its basically performative, but it's basically a similar concept as the people who changed their Facebook profile to a French Flag after the 2015 attacks (gosh that feels like a century ago)
Nobody is "lying"

[John Dule]

I honestly think every Russia apologist on this site besides Santander has a single-digit IQ.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I don't think Putin is this dumb. If he attacked Sweden and/or Finland, it would be a completely different ball game. IMO, they should already be in NATO, but I doubt it would matter. At that point, even die-hard Putin appeasers in Europe would be able to see his endgame. Norway, even if they're not attacked, I bet would swiftly respond. The Nordic countries are too close culturally to stand by when the others are invaded I believe. This would then likely pull in Poland and then the rest of Europe, and then probably the US into war, which would absolutely decimate Russia militarily.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1497303369865646081?t=-V9Vq7dphxBnvmTDo...


Ugh

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice to see this administration's intelligent enough to maintain working relations. You want to do things in the world, you gotta deal with governments.
Presidents have to deal with and cooperate with unsavory people all the time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonOne/status/1497190417040818178?t=KaTlr2YYTJkoaSGZogs...

[Badger]

I honestly think every Russia apologist on this site besides Santander has a single-digit IQ.

 And non coincidentally, santander isantander is probably just joking//trolling as he is want to do (probably)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's hilarious how many here fail to realize that Santander is a liberal just playing a character, especially since he "breaks character" quite often.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I don't think Putin is this dumb. If he attacked Sweden and/or Finland, it would be a completely different ball game. IMO, they should already be in NATO, but I doubt it would matter. At that point, even die-hard Putin appeasers in Europe would be able to see his endgame. Norway, even if they're not attacked, I bet would swiftly respond. The Nordic countries are too close culturally to stand by when the others are invaded I believe. This would then likely pull in Poland and then the rest of Europe, and then probably the US into war, which would absolutely decimate Russia militarily.

wouldnt this trigger a coup in moscow?

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1497303369865646081?t=-V9Vq7dphxBnvmTDo...


Ugh

space should be the only one

[Badger]

Nice to see this administration's intelligent enough to maintain working relations. You want to do things in the world, you gotta deal with governments.
Presidents have to deal with and cooperate with unsavory people all the time.

 Maybe. But for Christ's sake don't establish that Russia isn't completely cut off while they are in the midst of of an invasion of a sovereign country. Keep the message line clear that they are and will continue to be pariah's, and then, later, if and when needed, deal with them through diplomatic backchannels when it is truly in the US interest.

Simply don't undercut your most important point right up front.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1497310419366694918

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1497303072778768390?t=GP3yZz-B84mKwRH5uN...

[Mr. Illini]

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but do you use the Russian spelling for Ukrainian cities intentionally? "Kiev" is one thing, but no one says "Lvov."