Clinton supporters, are you scared that Hillary will blow it? (user search)
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  Clinton supporters, are you scared that Hillary will blow it? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How worried are you than nominee Clinton will hand the election to Trump?
#1
Not at all.
 
#2
A little concerned.
 
#3
Very worried.
 
#4
Utterly terrified.
 
#5
Happy! (Not a Hillary supporters.)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 135

Author Topic: Clinton supporters, are you scared that Hillary will blow it?  (Read 6059 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,900
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: May 13, 2016, 03:06:38 PM »

Based on the current environment, I'm still confident she will win. What worries me is that we may be blowing a rare opportunity to score a landslide win and make major gains in both Congress and state legislatures across the country. Democrats need to recover, and this is a golden opportunity that may be wasted by a polarizing and generally unliked candidate. I support her, and really don't buy into a lot of the tripe thrown at her, but she is not even close to my first choice.

But, I suppose she could end up winning big anyway, but that idea seems tenuous at best.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,900
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2016, 03:25:36 PM »

I'm sceptical about any candidate winning "big", at least in terms of popular vote. The country is polarized politically and, let's be honest, both Hillary and Trump are polarizing figures on their own. Right now a narrow PV victory (possibly with Obamaeqsue EV victory) for Clinton is the most likely possibility.

But, again, there's so much time till November. She can screw up big time like Dukakis in 1988.

You are right that we are hyper-polarized right now, but that doesn't exclude the possibility of a landslide. It may minimize the size of one, though. I think a 10pt win by any measure today would be a landslide, especially since Libertarians will take even more points from Trump.

The way I see it is, Trump is going to lose non-white voters by even larger margins than Romney's 17%. I don't believe he will get Romney numbers among whites, either. Not based on how terrible his behavior and image is right now, or the fact that he is now flip flopping on a daily basis. Those two factors, to me, make a close election impossible. If Hillary were to get Obama's vote shares from 2008 (an actual possibility), it would be a >55% win. That's how badly demographics are hurting Republicans.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,900
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2016, 03:38:58 PM »

I may be oversceptical (just my nature Wink ), but I just wouldn't bet on anything now.

I am going to be crying come election day if Trump wins, wondering how I could be so wrong. I may or may not have invested too much faith in my own prognostications here, albeit informed predictions, anyhow.
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