European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[windjammer]

Well,
I expect ALDE to be on the rise. It wouldn't be surprising if EPP-SD could lose their absolute majority.

[windjammer]

Apparently the requirements to form an EP group are:

- 25 MEPs
- At least 1/4 of all member states must have representation in the group (7 countries)

So, looking at each group:

EPP: They'll easily pass this. They will be represented in all countries after Brexit (the UK was the only one without EPP members) and have a lot of large parties

S&D: Same as EPP. They'll get the requirements extremely easily. Several large parties and represented everywhere. Losing Labour is a bad thing though, especially now that they are doing well.

ALDE: Represented in 19 countries (they lack: Italy, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus) . Not sure if they could add any to their list or if any would drop out. Still, it seems they won't have much trouble. Though adding LREM would be a huge boost. The Lib Dems were already very small so losing them isn't a big deal.

G/EFA: Represented in 18 countries (not in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal). However iirc several green parties are having trouble, and the "EFA" countries aren't that big. Plus losing the SNP, Plaid and the Greens will hurt them.

GUE/NGL: Represented in 18 countries (not in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, and literally all of former communist eastern Europe except the Czech Republic!). The far left is doing good, they will survive and rise. Their only UK representative was Sinn Fein with only 1 MEP, so it's not a huge loss (plus Sinn Fein will still have its Irish MEPs anyways)

EFDD: They are dead. They are represented in only 8 countries, of which 3 are just people who switched parties. The Sweden Democrats will join ENF or a successor, the Czech party will drop out of parliament, the Lithuanian party will join ECR and who knows with M5S. Since UKIP was almost all this was, they will be harmed by the UK leaving.

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

My prediction:
-EPP: losing a bit but not too much
-SD: losing a bit more than EPP
-ALDE: rising, probably the group that will increase the most its numbers
-G/EFA: they will lose a lot I believe
-GUE/NGL: they will probably remain stable, perhaps a slight increase
-Finally, I believe that the 3 eurosceptic-farright groups: the one from the UKP, the one from the Tories, and the one from the National Front: I believe one of them will disappear, there should be only 2 rightwing/far right groups after the elections. I expect them to remain stable though.

[windjammer]

Btw,
The far right in France is going to suffer a lot (if we don't consider Wauquiez as rightwing). Given the recent special elections, it is quite likely the National Front will at least lose 10 points.

[windjammer]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

[windjammer]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

Lol, I'm pro European Union

[windjammer]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

[windjammer]

Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

That wouldn't be a bad thing btw.

[windjammer]

Right now, the live TV debate between the "top candidates" for the European election, Frans Timmermans (PvdA/SPE) and Manfred Weber (CSU/EVP), is being aired on German state TV.
Although Timmermans is Dutch, his German is better than the English of many German politicians.
I remember how Green politician Ska Keller stammered around in English in a 2014 debate.

Who is winning?

[windjammer]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

[windjammer]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

I mean FPO's base is non college whites basically who hate immigration.
Why would they care so much about that to make FPO drop significantly to 10%?