European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how this will impact the election ?

Austrian far-right leader filmed offering public contracts for Russian campaign support

"Heinz-Christian Strache appeared prepared to accept money from a dubious Russian source."



https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-far-right-freedom-strache

The "Presse" is reporting that a "western intelligence service" probably set up the video trap for Strache, to expose the FPÖ's deep Russia-ties before the election.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5630280/Woher-kommt-das-StracheVideo

[Mike88]

The Church seems surprisngly open to the CDU. I'm guessing irt prostitution they're aligned on the Swedish/EndDemand model, but why are they so ambivalent on other issues?

Lol they used the German CDU logo
The Portuguese commies don't seem to be very socially progressive?

The Communists are quite "socially conservative" in some issues. Other than abortion, they are against euthanasia, are against gender quotas to put more women in the lists or other top jobs, have wobbly positions in terms of gay marriage/gay adoption and are completely against prostitution, like the table says. PCP has a very rural electorate, don't forget that their biggest stronghold is Alentejo, and they focus more on workers/economic policies than social ones. PCP voters are not very interested in social issues, unlike BE. Although CDU and the Church have some similarities in some positions, their relation isn't a very good one. Going back to the 1974 revolution, the Church and the PCP have always been at odds and there's no sympathy for each side.

Actually that's the real CDU logo. It's quite similar, almost copypast, to the German CDU. Normally, the logos of PCP and PEV are shown bellow:

CDU (PCP/PEV) logo. Image from Rádio Sines

Also, new polling has been released that show how much the "political crisis" of early May has affected the parties in the EP election campaign:

GfK/Metris poll to Expresso/SIC TV: (difference between the poll in the first week of May and the other poll from the second week of May)

Vote share %:

34% PS, 8 seats
28% PSD, 7
  9% CDU, 2
  9% CDS, 2
  8% BE, 2
  3% PAN, 0
  5% Others, 0
  4% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 22 April and 3 May 2019 (before the "political crisis"). Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

Vote share %:

36% PS (+2), 8/9 seats
28% PSD (nc), 6/7
  9% BE (+1), 2
  8% CDU (-1), 1/2
  8% CDS (-1), 1/2
  2% PAN (-1), 0
  5% Others, 0
  4% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 7 May and 12 May 2019 (after the "political crisis"). Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Almost 20,000 voters asked for early ballots for the EP elections, an increase of 488% compared with the 2017 local elections:

According to the Interior Minister, 19,562 voters asked to vote early in the EP elections. They will vote this Sunday. This is an increase of 488%, compared with the 2017 local elections, due to the change of the electoral law in which, now, all voters can cast an early ballot and don't need to file an excuse for it. Under the previous law, only voters who couldn't be in Portugal on election day were eligible to cast an early ballot. 

[bigic]

Actually that's the real CDU logo. It's quite similar, almost copypast, to the German CDU. Normally, the logos of PCP and PEV are shown bellow:

CDU (PCP/PEV) logo. Image from Rádio Sines

The "C" in this logo doesn't look like the "C" here:

For comparison, the German CDU logo

[Mike88]

Actually that's the real CDU logo. It's quite similar, almost copypast, to the German CDU. Normally, the logos of PCP and PEV are shown bellow:

CDU (PCP/PEV) logo. Image from Rádio Sines

The "C" in this logo doesn't look like the "C" here:

For comparison, the German CDU logo

Maybe you're right. Germany's CDU logo seems more flattened than Portugal's CDU, although the difference is just a minor one. Both logos are very similar. No wonder they got confused.

[Velasco]

Spain: 40dB poll for El País

PSOE 28.9% 17 seats
PP 18.9% 11 seats
Cs 16.1% 9 seats
UP 14.8% 8-9 seats
VOX 8.4% 4-5 seats
ERC+EH Bildu+BNG 5 5% 3 seats
JxCAT 2 5% 1 seat

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache has just resigned all his offices in a press statement.

This changes everything, all polls taken in Austria until now are meaningless.

I could see the FPÖ dropping to as low as 10-15% next Sunday ...

https://orf.at/stories/3122863

[windjammer]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

[Tender Branson]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

[windjammer]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

I mean FPO's base is non college whites basically who hate immigration.
Why would they care so much about that to make FPO drop significantly to 10%?

[Tender Branson]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

I mean FPO's base is non college whites basically who hate immigration.
Why would they care so much about that to make FPO drop significantly to 10%?

Because this is an extraordinary event, like Knittelfeld was in 2002, after which the FPÖ dropped to 10% or less in elections.

Their longtime party leader and identification figure (Strache) is suddenly gone in disgrace and the whole story will dominate news over the next week. Immigration will have no role in the next week.

[Former President tack50]

FPÖ-leader Strache has just resigned all his offices in a press statement.

This changes everything, all polls taken in Austria until now are meaningless.

I could see the FPÖ dropping to as low as 10-15% next Sunday ...

https://orf.at/stories/3122863

Any reason why? From a tactical perspective it would have been a lot better to resign after the election.

Was he corrupt or had a scandal?

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache has just resigned all his offices in a press statement.

This changes everything, all polls taken in Austria until now are meaningless.

I could see the FPÖ dropping to as low as 10-15% next Sunday ...

https://orf.at/stories/3122863

Any reason why? From a tactical perspective it would have been a lot better to resign after the election.

Was he corrupt or had a scandal?

Read the reason here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=285633.msg6800480#msg6800480

and more detailed starting here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310336.msg6800424#msg6800424

+ the complexity of this case/video made an immediate resignation necessary, not wait until the EU election is over.

[Keep Calm and ...]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

Do you (or somebody else) know if we can see opinion polls next week? 2014 they weren't any polls in the last 8 days before the election.

[Tender Branson]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

Do you (or somebody else) know if we can see opinion polls next week? 2014 they weren't any polls in the last 8 days before the election.

Usually, there is agreement among pollsters not to release final polls in the week before an election.

But considering the events, some might do a last poll now ...

[Keep Calm and ...]

Thanks!
I hope that somebody will do.

[Mike88]

Portuguese test:

https://www.publico.pt/europeias-2019/interactivo/qual-partido-mais-identifica

My results:

74% Alliance
73% CDS
68% PSD
65% MPT/NC
62% BASTA!
60% PAN
60% CDU
57% PS
56% BE
54% PDR
54% PCTP
51% Livre

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My result:

1. S&D
2. Greens-EFA
3. GUE-NGL - my actual vote
4. ENF
5. ALDE
6. EPP
7. ECR

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Thanks!
I hope that somebody will do.

According to this new article, which interviewed some pollsters today, there will be no further polls in the next week.

They say that it takes ca. 3 days after such a scandal, so that "voters can process everything" and then an additional 4-5 days to create the poll, go into the field and calculate the results.

Until Sunday, that is impossible.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

OVP probably around 45% i think, and less for SPO and Greens.

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

OVP probably around 45% i think, and less for SPO and Greens.

45% ?

No way. They only got 27% in 2014. It's even possible that the FPÖ does not as badly as I predict here and that NEOS will get a good result this time. That means the ÖVP would get no more than 38-40% at best.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, the 3rd of 4 EU-debates with the frontrunners will be held on ATV.

I'm pretty sure that only 1% of the debate will be about Europe this time ...

The final debate will be on Thursday on the main ORF TV.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Long lines to vote early in Lisbon and Porto.

https://twitter.com/RebeloNuno/status/1130152163181772800

Early voting in the Lisbon' City Hall. 10 access rows, alphabetical order.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, the 3rd of 4 EU-debates with the frontrunners will be held on ATV.

I'm pretty sure that only 1% of the debate will be about Europe this time ...

The final debate will be on Thursday on the main ORF TV.

Wow, the candidates of FPÖ and ÖVP are stressed as hell and attack each other brutally, like it was the case in the good old days of SPÖVP ...

Live here:

https://www.atv.at/livestream