Will Marie Perez be a one-term wonder?

[ProgressiveModerate]

While yes, WA-03 is a Trump district and tends to lean R overall, it was only Trump + 4 in 2020, which is def not impossible partisanship to overcome. She'd need to build up a pretty effective brand pretty fast though which will be hard but not impossible (see Mary Peltola).

If she faces a truly competent R and/or 2024 is just a good year for Rs, she's toast.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

Yes sort of, but demographically his district is very different and was a bit redder.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone see Joe Cunningham as a good analog towards MGP? He also won an R-leaning district after the incumbent was primaried from the right.

wasn't Cunningham's district a double digit Trump district ? WA03 was only Trump+4. I feel like MGP can survive in 2024 if Trump runs since it was only a Trump +4 district but will be much harder to win in a midterm under Dem president against a generic R. She outran top of the ticket by 9 points this year (Smiley won that district by 7.5 points) but had the advantage of running against a poor opponent, something that's not guaranteed in future. I think strong incumbents can outrun top of ticket by 4-5 points...will be harder to do beyond that though

In 2020, SC-01 was Trump + 6 as Cunningham lost by ~1% to Mace, so a 5 point overperformance on his part.

It is important to rmbr though Mace is actually a pretty mainstream bordering on "moderate" R who faced a serious primary from the right this cycle, defeating Arrington 53-45.

Lowkey one kinda surprising thing is that Mace "only" won by a little under 14%, as the newly configured version of her district was Trump + 9. Considering the black turnout drop in much of the southeast, the fact she didn't face a serious opponent, and also was relatively uncontroversial (at least to swing voters), I would've thought she would've done better.