Primary Night Results Thread (AL, CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM, SD)

[MarkWarner08]

If Lautenberg is reelected in 2012 and if Rush Holt inexplicably runs and wins a  primary against Bob Menendez in 2014, New Jersey's Senate delegation will consist of a near-centarian and a man whose father was too young to serve the first two years of his Senate term. What a weird state...

[MarkWarner08]

Any guesses about Ed Fallon's percentage against "Bush Dog" (what an absurd term)and netroots target Leonard Boswell? I'll put the angry liberal activist vote at ~40%, similar to the percentage Jane Harman's challenger won in 2006.

[MarkWarner08]

Who is Justin Murphy and why is he leading Chris Myers, the pick of the retiring GOP congressman?

[MarkWarner08]

Who is Justin Murphy and why is he leading Chris Myers, the pick of the retiring GOP congressman?

Because there has yet to be a single Burlington County precinct to report.  Myers will bounce back in a huge way once it starts reporting, presumably to victory.

(Murphy is the token conservative, endorsed by Bret "Who Even Cares Anymore" Schundler.)

Thanks.

[MarkWarner08]

Take a look at IA-03 on the Democratic side. Boswell is up 56-44 with 46% in

Did Polk County report? That would be Fallon's base.

Possibly. Once the rural counties come in, Boswell should win with around 60%.

[MarkWarner08]

Who woulda thunk it? Bill McCamley is down by fewer points than is the 2nd place candidate in the NM-02 GOP primary.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm stunned that the carpetbagger liberal is leading the scion of one of NM's leading political families. Maybe all those millions actually paid off this time.

[MarkWarner08]

Heinrich is lucky man.  Vigil-Giron and Lujan-Grisham really the split the vote right down the middle to give him a likely win.

NM-02 and NM-03 on the Dem side are going to be interesting too, depending on what's left.

I'm rooting for Wiviott and Teague.  McCamley seems really phony from what I've seen and Ben R. Lujan is only doing as well as he is because his dad Ben Lujan is immensely popular in the North.

No kidding about Heinrich.  What do you think about the NM-01 race?

I'm a big Martin Heinrich supporter and I'm glad the vote split happened.  Vigil-Giron (a former incompetent SoS) and Darren White (overemotional Sheriff who seeks the local news cameras when a crime occurs like Jesse Jackson does when a black man gets beaten by the police) are pretty slimy individuals.   Heinrich is a hard worker with the Albuquerque City Council and fairly moderate on a lot of issues.

White seems like the next Dave Reichert (i.e., an attractive sheriff who wins over female suburbanites in a swing district).

[MarkWarner08]

Here in California, Prop. 99 is passing. Even if Prop. 98 passes, Prop. 99 supercedes it. Prop. 99 is a sane eminent domain Prop. while Prop. 98 was insane.

So, the enviro groups created their own eminent domain measure to confuse CA voters? What the heck is going on here?

[MarkWarner08]

Another New Mexico election gaffe. Maybe those election officials were a little too enamored with Katherine Harris in the new HBO film.

[MarkWarner08]

Any guesses about Ed Fallon's percentage against "Bush Dog" (what an absurd term)and netroots target Leonard Boswell? I'll put the angry liberal activist vote at ~40%, similar to the percentage Jane Harman's challenger won in 2006.

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I finally nailed a Congressional primary...

[MarkWarner08]

Teague and McCamley is a real battle.

But is it as tight as...
315 of 328 Precincts Reporting - 96%
   Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Miller-Meeks, Mariannette   GOP   7,196   43%
   Teahen, Peter   GOP   7,158   43%
   Harder, Lee   GOP   2,215   13%


Iowa's MMM is up by just 38 votes!

[MarkWarner08]

Could Bush have sunk yet another candidate?

If McCamley upsets Teague, this ad may have been the difference:

[MarkWarner08]

This district may be competative. It seems to vote by candidate as opposed to party.

Tell that to Jim Leach, a congenial statesman who was the brains behind a seminal piece of banking legislation back in the 1980s. Leach didn't lose because voters grew tired of his sweater vest or his cerebral form of legislating-- no, Leach lost simply because of the (R) after his surname. For that very reason, there is little chance that MMM will prevail over Loebsack.

[MarkWarner08]

Isn't it fitting that Heather Wilson's career once again depends on a few remaining precincts?

For selfish reasons, I'm hoping Pearce wins with 51.4% of the vote.

[MarkWarner08]

Hey, it's not my fault the Dems never nominate a Blue Dog Hispanic female here...that combination would probably have won this year...

Hmm... What about Patsy Madrid? If only she hadn't stuttered in that debate, she would've been running for reelection this time.

[MarkWarner08]

Isn't it fitting that Heather Wilson's career once again depends on a few remaining precincts?

It's so cruel.

Not for your home state's resident electoral Houdini, Mr. Jim "I can't believe I lost another .4% of the vote and I still won!" Gerlach.

[MarkWarner08]

Hey, it's not my fault the Dems never nominate a Blue Dog Hispanic female here...that combination would probably have won this year...

Hmm... What about Patsy Madrid? If only she hadn't stuttered in that debate, she would've been running for reelection this time.

I didn't know Madrid was a blue dog Hispanic.  I thought she was just incompetent.

So, a competent Hispanic would have won last time around. 

Well, she could've pretended that she was Blue Dog. It would've been quite simply actually. Madrid in a TV ad: Here's my plan to increase gun ownership, cut the federal deficit, and enforce tougher border protection, and I'll pay for it by suing abortion doctors!

[MarkWarner08]

Heather Wilson would have to win around 65% of the remaining vote to defeat Pearce. Since only 13 precincts in NM-01 remain, Pearce's margin is nearly insurmountable. It's time to close the curtains on Wilson's career.

[MarkWarner08]

Major creativity plaudits to the McCamley campaign for this smooth biographical/attack ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgLwuxp6Ym4