NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

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Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

So long as Norcross maintains an iron grip on The Philadelphia Inquirer (which he used to own) his influence in South Jersey will not dwindle. The biggest threat to him right now is national trends making the Democratic Party less powerful in South Jersey, though Norcross is of course loyal to no party and will work with Republicans without hesitation (as he did with Christie). Murphy is uniquely able to go up against Norcross because of his personal wealth making him less dependent on big donors, and that's probably the only reason he does.

With regards to JVD, he has been Norcross' footsoldier for his entire career (I personally can't point to a single vote he's ever taken - in the legislature or Congress - that went against Norcross' line) and I highly doubt he undertook his party switch without permission. I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

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I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

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I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

Why would Norcross cross sides to endorse a Republican, that probably puts him at odds with Sweeney and his brother, wouldn't putting a primary challenger forth make more sense?

Norcross is not a public figure and is only really known to people in political/power circles. He would not make a public endorsement and his support wouldn't generate media coverage. He had no issue backing Christie (who had previously investigated him), LoBiondo, and various assembly GOP for years. As for Sweeney, a Van Drew governorship probably makes his life significantly easier.

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I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

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I really do not see Van Drew running against Murphy in 2021; that's an uphill challenge in normal times and I don't see Murphy losing this race. Low turnout doesn't really mean much in New Jersey since turnout tends to be from machine-loyal voters (mostly Democratic but some Republicans in places like Ocean, Monmouth, Sussex Counties) and highly-educated voters (who are trending rapidly towards Democrats). I also don't think Van Drew is that impressive as a vote-getter; he only got 60% in the 2018 Dem primary against a couple of complete nobodies, not to mention dramatically underperformed in the general election against a known racist.

After 2021 it's hard to tell what happens; it's certainly possible a Republican wins the Governorship, but the GOP has by now transformed into a party with very, very little appeal to a state that is diverse, densely populated, relatively affluent and relatively well-educated.

I've always found the perception that Van Drew underperformed to be misleading. A district that gave Obama only 53% of the vote in 2008 of all years and has trended R since was never going to be a landslide for Dems, even with a shoddy GOP candidate. He won an R+1 seat by 8 points in a D+8 year, so if anything he modestly outperformed the national average. And he did it as Menendez was losing the district by double digits the same night.

Dems haven't re-elected a governor in NJ in 43 years. Polarization will probably change that. GOP will need a candidate who can hold Murphy to single digits in a Biden midterm and has appeal in the state legislative seats that are moving their way. That candidate is Van Drew, who is already getting the anti-Murphy rhetoric ready.

I have no inside knowledge here, I'm simply positing and theorizing. The NJ GOP is rather inept and probably doesn't realize that this is their path back to relevance. I wouldn't be surprised if they nominate a North Jersey suburban moderate and squander away a chance to reclaim some power, FL Dems style.

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Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

That is...a very Norcross-inoffensive piece that covers Philadelphia corruption far more than it touches New Jersey. And that is precisely the type of coverage that political bosses all over the country want: not ignoring, but not threatening. He has nothing to gain by the Inquirer going the way of the NY Post.

As for JVD, this rather silly op-ed is the most critical piece on his party switch that I was able to find.

Not sure what that last sentence means, the Inquirer probably has the second-highest influence over South Jersey of any media outlet after Fox News (which probably has a solid plurality in most of the country).

Anyway, I think 2017 really weakened Norcross/Sweeney's grip on the party - the fact that Murphy was able to win the nomination by completely going around him allowed a separate center of power to be established in the NJDP and if anything, Murphy has gotten even more anti-Norcross since then.  

Yes - Murphy was able to do so because he got in the race earlier than anyone would have ever expected and had the money to run a substantive and organized campaign from the get-go.

We need to dispel of this idea that Norcross loses power if he loses the Democratic party. He is a Democrat out of convenience and is just as comfortable with Republicans if they push his interests (most of which are tax and contract related, so easy for Republicans to jive with). He owned LoBiondo and continues to effusively praise Christie to this day. Hell, he is a member of Mar-a-Lago and is already positioning himself on the GOP side of the culture war. Murphy's rise and South Jersey's national trends will only accelerate his gravitation towards the GOP, and JVD's party switch is practically just him getting a head start by putting an ally on the inside.

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I agree with all saying Murphy is safe for all intents and purposes. My positing on Van Drew is in terms of relative statewide success for the GOP (holding/gaining assembly seats in areas trending their way fast).

I want to address the line about Democrats not winning a second gubernatorial term since 1977: it should be noted up until 1988 NJ was viewed as a Lean R state because of the large population of college educated white voters. In the late 80s and 1990s increases in immigration and the early movement of suburbanites to the Democrats made it an Atlas Red state at the national state, but of course state level elections take longer to reflect trends.

I do agree with other posters about how the NJ GOP is more competent when it comes to nominating sane candidates than, say the VA GOP, CA GOP, etc. I just think it's becoming a lot harder for the GOP to win the governor's mansion.

I'm not sure we can count on the NJ GOP nominating moderates much longer, because of the exact population of college educated white voters you mention. With NJ-05, NJ-07, and NJ-11 moving the way they are towards Dems it's possible if not likely that the northern NYC suburbs are going to make up less of the GOP primary electorate than in previous years. If South Jersey grows as an influence in NJ GOP politics (it will) then the state may start producing more Trump-esque, populist GOP nominees.

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Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

That is...a very Norcross-inoffensive piece that covers Philadelphia corruption far more than it touches New Jersey. And that is precisely the type of coverage that political bosses all over the country want: not ignoring, but not threatening. He has nothing to gain by the Inquirer going the way of the NY Post.

As for JVD, this rather silly op-ed is the most critical piece on his party switch that I was able to find.

Not sure what that last sentence means, the Inquirer probably has the second-highest influence over South Jersey of any media outlet after Fox News (which probably has a solid plurality in most of the country).

snip

You're misunderstanding. It is in the machine's (and every political machine's) interest to only maintain a minimal amount of public support. The coverage of Norcross doesn't matter so long as the elected officials in his grip don't have their holds on their seats impeded, and his patrons aren't impacted. He doesn't care what the papers are saying about himself as long as the worst he continues to get from Trenton is a slap on the wrist, and the business and tax perks keep coming in. It's very similar to Harvey Weinstein's longtime strategy of letting the media attack him as long as they didn't damage his films' box office performance and his own bottom line (until of course Weinstein became a symbol of something much larger). It is classic political boss/machine behavior - Tammany Hall functioned essentially the same way with the Times and the Sun (in its day).

The Inquirer's situation and struggles are not easily comparable to other local media outlets. It is in the unique position of being a local paper whose readership is disproportionately outside of the state it is based in for reasons outside of its control (this impacts its ability to function as a PA-based business while still appealing to its largely NJ audience). South Jerseyans are way more exposed to the Inquirer than many realize: the physical papers are often available at commuter bus/train stations (in a commuter-heavy state), diners, public beaches, and hotels and casinos (in a region where this a huge part of the economy). It remains popular with suburbanites and working-class folks outside of Camden and AC and continues to poll highly as trusted and well-liked in the NJ share of the Philadelphia media market.

I really did not intend to derail this thread with discussion about the details of NJ machine politics. If anybody wants to continue on this topic I'd suggest we start a new thread or converse privately, and keep this thread focused on news and discussion of the active gubernatorial race.

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Bramnick may have been the best shot the NJ GOP had at holding enough Romney/Clinton/Biden and Romney/Trump/Biden voters while also peeling off enough soft Democrats to win.

Hard to see who's left on the bench, unless they go for somebody from the private sector who we don't know about yet.

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Assemblyman Jamel Holley would have challenged Murphy, but he is an anti-vax liberal who would not do well in the white suburbs.

2021 will be, without question, the worst year in recorded history to run as an anti-vaxxer.

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Interestingly, multiple GOP incumbents in the state Senate are currently trailing their Dem opponents, and a couple are barely leading.

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Sweeney losing (even without the context of his opponent being a some guy who spent less than $200) is a New Jersey political earthquake and the biggest blow to the Jersey political machine in decades.

If anything, could be an owl goal for NJ Republicans as Sweeney was virtually the only thing preventing Murphy from accomplishing many progressive goals.

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It was always going to be tough to draw a 10-2 map that was waveproof, especially given the trends in South Jersey and the stubborn redness of the northwest. Probably best for D's long-term to go for 9-3, even if in the short-term it makes holding the House marginally more difficult. No reason to make any more incumbents vulnerable than you have to.

The Murphy spook and the Sweeney shocker, happening at the exact time that they did, certainly looks like it could pay dividends for Dems strategically. Always helpful to be reminded of your weak spots going into redistricting.