German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

While campaigning for the Berlin state election yesterday, a voter gave me an ice-cream.

A pleasant suprise. This almost makes up for that guy three weeks who showed me the finger and called me a "c**nt" without any provocation whatsoever.

So, not all voters are assholes. Probably only the majority of them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wahl-o-mat for the Berlin state election is out:
http://www.bpb.de/politik/wahlen/wahl-o-mat/

My "weighted" results:
Greens 75.6%
Pirates 71.1%
Left 63.3%
SPD 62.2%
NPD 51.1% (WTF?)
FDP 44.4%
CDU 37.8%
AfD 35.6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Was putting up election posters in Berlin last sunday and it became a surreal experience again.

First, some 50-year-old guy who is completely naked except for his briefs is opening his window in the first floor and starts an incoherent rant in a thick Saxon accent: "You're not doing anything except letting all those refugees in!" First he claims that he's voting AfD, later he's yelling that he's voting "red" (presumably The Left?).

Later that day a seemingly unhinged woman is harrassing us and wants to know if we have a permit for putting up election posters and on what legal basis we're doing this. Our answer that you don't need a permit for this and that the state's electoral law allows us to do it, doesn't convince her at all. Instead, she wants to write down our names so that she can file charges with the police later on. Our refusal to give her our names leads her to write down the license plate of our rental car.

Why, or why, are those people allowed to vote?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Was putting up election posters in Berlin last sunday and it became a surreal experience again.

First, some 50-year-old guy who is completely naked except for his briefs is opening his window in the first floor and starts an incoherent rant in a thick Saxon accent: "You're not doing anything except letting all those refugees in!" First he claims that he's voting AfD, later he's yelling that he's voting "red" (presumably The Left?).

Later that day a seemingly unhinged woman is harrassing us and wants to know if we have a permit for putting up election posters and on what legal basis we're doing this. Our answer that you don't need a permit for this and that the state's electoral law allows us to do it, doesn't convince her at all. Instead, she wants to write down our names so that she can file charges with the police later on. Our refusal to give her our names leads her to write down the license plate of our rental car.

Why, or why, are those people allowed to vote?

You see, that attitude is why your absolute farce of a party will continue to be decimated.

Go f**k yourself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Was putting up election posters in Berlin last sunday and it became a surreal experience again.

First, some 50-year-old guy who is completely naked except for his briefs is opening his window in the first floor and starts an incoherent rant in a thick Saxon accent: "You're not doing anything except letting all those refugees in!" First he claims that he's voting AfD, later he's yelling that he's voting "red" (presumably The Left?).

Later that day a seemingly unhinged woman is harrassing us and wants to know if we have a permit for putting up election posters and on what legal basis we're doing this. Our answer that you don't need a permit for this and that the state's electoral law allows us to do it, doesn't convince her at all. Instead, she wants to write down our names so that she can file charges with the police later on. Our refusal to give her our names leads her to write down the license plate of our rental car.

Why, or why, are those people allowed to vote?

Why shouldn't they? No-one can be intelligent as you, oh wise one.

I'm merely treating the scum in the same manner the scum has treated me for the past one and a half year or so. An eye for an eye. While this won't necessarily lead to justice, at least I'll have my vengeance.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin is basically the only German state where it is possible for SPD, CDU, Greens, Left, and AfD each to come in as the strongest party in different electoral districts. The cultural divide between Marzahn-Hellersdorf and Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg is probably about as big as the one between Russia and Canada.

The seat distribution in the new borough assembly of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (in the brackets the make-up of the borough executive):
Greens 20 (3)
Left 12 (1)
SPD 10 (1)
CDU 4
AfD 3
Pirates 2
Die PARTEI 2
FDP 2

The new borough assembly (and borough executive) of Marzahn-Hellersdorf:
Left 16 (2)
AfD 15 (1)
SPD 11 (1)
CDU 11 (1)
Greens 2

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gerwald Claus-Brunner, one of the Pirate Party MPs who failed getting re-elected to the state parliament on Sunday was found dead in his appartment yesterday.

It is presumed that it was a suicide since he apparently had hinted as much in his final parliamentary speech (which nobody was taking seriously enough).As of now, the identity of the second body which was found with Claus-Brunner is unkown though. So, possibly either a double suicide or a murder-suicide.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and SPD nominate foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) as presidential candidate to succeed Joachim Gauck next February.

Overall a success for the SPD, because Steinmeier was SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel's favorite choice, while the CDU had resisted that option for a couple of weeks. After they apparently couldn't find a suitable alternative, they surrended to Steinmeier now.

This also means the SPD will have to pick a new foreign minister to serve for half a year before the next Bundestag election.

Steinmeier himself is known as not a big fan of Donald Trump. During the U.S. election campaign he called Trump a "hate preacher" and he notably refused to congratulate Trump on his election. In Germany, Steinmeier often comes out on top in opinion polls as the most popular politician we have right now (72% approval rating in early November).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz, incumbent President of the European Parliament, is mentioned as possible new foreign minister (and a couple of weeks ago he was also mentioned as a possible chancellor-candidate for the SPD).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there a term for a CDU/SPD/Green coalition? Because you might end up getting that come next year.

That's a Kenya coalition... there's one right now in Saxony-Anhalt.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz reportedly insists on getting the SPD Chancellor-candidacy as a condition for taking over the foreign ministry. Naturally, he denied said report.

Meanwhile, Merkel apparently plans to announce this Sunday that she's going to run for another term as Chancellor.

[Middle-aged Europe]

All candidates for the presidential election on February 12 so far:

- Nominated by CDU, CSU, and SPD:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), foreign minister

- Nominated by The Left:
Christoph Butterwege (independent, ex-SPD), political science professor

- Nominated by the AfD:
Albrecht Glaser, deputy party chairman

- Nominated by the Free Voters:
Alexander Hold, former TV judge and the Free Voters' caucus leader in the city council of Kempten (Bavaria)

It's still unclear what the Greens and the FDP are going to do exactly. Will they support Steinmeier or will they also nominate candidates of their own?


In about half an hour, Angela Merkel will hold a press conference announcing her run for a fourth term in 2017. CSU has already endorsed her candidacy. SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

Who decides on that?

Backroom deals.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Very hard to say... personally, I'd prefer Schulz, but only because Gabriel would be so terrible. Not that Schulz is that much of an inspiring choice either. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Merkel will remain Chancellor after 2017.


The only "major" party in Germany which holds a primary-like contest to determine its two lead candidates (one male, one female) for the Bundestag election are the Greens. They did so for the first time in 2012, and they will do so again soon in December and January.

Candidates are:
- Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Bundestag caucus co-leader
- Anton Hofreiter, Bundestag caucus co-leader
- Cem Özdemir, party co-chairman
- Robert Habeck, deputy minister-president and agriculture/environment minister of Schleswig-Holstein

Since Göring-Eckardt is the only woman, she will win by default. The three men will slug it out among each other.

Hofreiter ist the only candidate who belongs to the party's Leftist wing, while Özdemir, Habeck, and Göring-Eckardt are all considered members of the "Realo" wing. Of the latter three, Özdemir is the most conservative though, and Göring-Eckardt is (IMO) the most leftist. So, to rank them from the right to the left: Özdemir, Habeck, Göring-Eckardt, Hofreiter.

According to opinion polls, Cem Özdemir is currently more or less tied with Baden-Württemberg's minister-president Winfried Kretschmann as Germany's most popular Green politican. But he's also definitely more conservative than his own party and its members. Habeck is the dark horse, and the Hofreiter is the left-winger.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If this is mathematically possible, I think it is quite likely they would go with a CDU-Green coalition.

I still doubt that. Mainly because the CSU hates the Greens and vice versa. CDU+Green alone wouldn't that much of a problem that's true. But Merkel certainly won't cut the CSU lose. And keep in mind that the CDU/CSU just nominated a SPD minister as their presidential candidate.

Btw, it's worth to note that Merkel had originally intended to retire at the end of her current term. Her justification for the heel-face turn is basically "because times are difficult". #Greece #Syria #Refugees #Brexit #Trump

[Middle-aged Europe]

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises.

Well, she actually did.

Angela Merkel gets a lot of heat from both the far-right and the far-left for her crisis management, but considering the circumstances I can't honestly see how anyone could have done it any better.

And I say that as someone who doesn't prefer his party to enter a coalition with the CDU in 2017 (mainly because I don't see a lot of compatibility with the CDU regarding social and fiscal policies).

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD postpones nomination of Chancellor-candidate till the end of January.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So I went back to look at the 2013 German election and I'm a little confused. What are the "additional member party-list seats" and where do those seats come from? Are they just to even out the popular vote with the number of seats each party holds? If that is the case, how are those representatives chosen?

German citizen have two votes... one for a candidate in your district (first past the post) and one for a state list (proportional representation).

The overall seat distribution in the Bundestag is determined by the second (PR) vote. Candidates who are directly elected in their district take precedent, but if a party hasn't won enough district seats to match the PR share, the remainder is filled up with candidates from the state list.

However, if a party wins more district seats directly than it is entitled according its PR share, it keeps those seats as so-called overhang seats. In the past, this sometimes led to the largest parties in parliament holding more seats than they had been entitled to according to their PR share, while the smaller ones didn't.

This was changed a couple of years ago and strict PR system was instituted. If a party now wins overhang seats, the other parties automatically gain compensatory seats. The proportional seat distribution between the parties remains unchanged, but the parliament as a whole gets bigger. Those additional compensatory seats are of course also filled up by candidates from the state lists.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They also like to play it safe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz is leaving the European Parliament to run for the Bundestag in 2017, fueling speculation that he'll become either foreign minister or Chancellor-candidate or both.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.

This would most likely cause the Left Party to split into two parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Perhaps, but I think that it could be a winning strategy. Eastern Germans, polls show, have little patience for mass immigration and are very hostile to Islam. Considering how important sex equality is in the east, and how irreligious it is, this should not be much surprise. Unlike so many naive idealists these days, eastern Germans seem to think with their brains. Their Wessi counterparts would do well to follow their example.

Assuming that you're not a troll, I have to say that you don't have a clue about East Germany whatsoever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Assuming that you're being dismissive of my claims out of ignorance, it has been consistently documented in the literature and in regular polling that eastern Germans are significantly cooler to immigration and Islam than their western counterparts and other western Europeans.

Yes, but that's NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Polls also show that East Germans would also be much more comfortable with a dictatorship than West Germans and other unpleasant things. Statistically speaking, there are also more likely to set a refugee home on fire or beat up an immigrant.

Again, that's NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Didn't get it yet?

IT'S. NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Do you understand now???

And I was born East Germany btw. So stop the  lecturing me about it, alright?

[Middle-aged Europe]

INSA poll shows some recovery by CDU/CSU and a new low for Greens in 5 years

More like three years.

8% in an Emnid poll from January 19, 2014.