German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz reportedly insists on getting the SPD Chancellor-candidacy as a condition for taking over the foreign ministry. Naturally, he denied said report.

Meanwhile, Merkel apparently plans to announce this Sunday that she's going to run for another term as Chancellor.

[Middle-aged Europe]

All candidates for the presidential election on February 12 so far:

- Nominated by CDU, CSU, and SPD:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), foreign minister

- Nominated by The Left:
Christoph Butterwege (independent, ex-SPD), political science professor

- Nominated by the AfD:
Albrecht Glaser, deputy party chairman

- Nominated by the Free Voters:
Alexander Hold, former TV judge and the Free Voters' caucus leader in the city council of Kempten (Bavaria)

It's still unclear what the Greens and the FDP are going to do exactly. Will they support Steinmeier or will they also nominate candidates of their own?


In about half an hour, Angela Merkel will hold a press conference announcing her run for a fourth term in 2017. CSU has already endorsed her candidacy. SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

[DavidB.]

SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

Who decides on that?

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

Who decides on that?

Backroom deals.

[DavidB.]

SPD is said to announce their own Chancellor-candidate until Christmas. Current front-runners seem to be Sigmar Gabriel and Martin Schulz.

Who decides on that?

Backroom deals.

Interesting. Who do you think is favored, Schultz or Gabriel? Do any German parties have real internal democratic mechanisms?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Very hard to say... personally, I'd prefer Schulz, but only because Gabriel would be so terrible. Not that Schulz is that much of an inspiring choice either. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Merkel will remain Chancellor after 2017.


The only "major" party in Germany which holds a primary-like contest to determine its two lead candidates (one male, one female) for the Bundestag election are the Greens. They did so for the first time in 2012, and they will do so again soon in December and January.

Candidates are:
- Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Bundestag caucus co-leader
- Anton Hofreiter, Bundestag caucus co-leader
- Cem Özdemir, party co-chairman
- Robert Habeck, deputy minister-president and agriculture/environment minister of Schleswig-Holstein

Since Göring-Eckardt is the only woman, she will win by default. The three men will slug it out among each other.

Hofreiter ist the only candidate who belongs to the party's Leftist wing, while Özdemir, Habeck, and Göring-Eckardt are all considered members of the "Realo" wing. Of the latter three, Özdemir is the most conservative though, and Göring-Eckardt is (IMO) the most leftist. So, to rank them from the right to the left: Özdemir, Habeck, Göring-Eckardt, Hofreiter.

According to opinion polls, Cem Özdemir is currently more or less tied with Baden-Württemberg's minister-president Winfried Kretschmann as Germany's most popular Green politican. But he's also definitely more conservative than his own party and its members. Habeck is the dark horse, and the Hofreiter is the left-winger.

[DavidB.]

Interesting, thanks. And yeah, Merkel will remain chancellor until she wants to quit.

[DavidB.]

Interesting, thanks. And yeah, Merkel will remain chancellor until she wants to quit.

[windjammer]

If this is mathematically possible, I think it is quite likely they would go with a CDU-Green coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If this is mathematically possible, I think it is quite likely they would go with a CDU-Green coalition.

I still doubt that. Mainly because the CSU hates the Greens and vice versa. CDU+Green alone wouldn't that much of a problem that's true. But Merkel certainly won't cut the CSU lose. And keep in mind that the CDU/CSU just nominated a SPD minister as their presidential candidate.

Btw, it's worth to note that Merkel had originally intended to retire at the end of her current term. Her justification for the heel-face turn is basically "because times are difficult". #Greece #Syria #Refugees #Brexit #Trump

[Beezer]

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises. So lucky to have her stay on. I'm sure her first meeting with President Le Pen will be interesting.

[DavidB.]

So in 2021 Germany will still not have gay marriage?

[Middle-aged Europe]

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises.

Well, she actually did.

Angela Merkel gets a lot of heat from both the far-right and the far-left for her crisis management, but considering the circumstances I can't honestly see how anyone could have done it any better.

And I say that as someone who doesn't prefer his party to enter a coalition with the CDU in 2017 (mainly because I don't see a lot of compatibility with the CDU regarding social and fiscal policies).

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD postpones nomination of Chancellor-candidate till the end of January.

[DavidB.]

I'm sure her first meeting with President Le Pen will be interesting.

If that happens, Le Pen owes Merkel a yuuuuge thank you.

[Sorenroy]

So I went back to look at the 2013 German election and I'm a little confused. What are the "additional member party-list seats" and where do those seats come from? Are they just to even out the popular vote with the number of seats each party holds? If that is the case, how are those representatives chosen?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So I went back to look at the 2013 German election and I'm a little confused. What are the "additional member party-list seats" and where do those seats come from? Are they just to even out the popular vote with the number of seats each party holds? If that is the case, how are those representatives chosen?

German citizen have two votes... one for a candidate in your district (first past the post) and one for a state list (proportional representation).

The overall seat distribution in the Bundestag is determined by the second (PR) vote. Candidates who are directly elected in their district take precedent, but if a party hasn't won enough district seats to match the PR share, the remainder is filled up with candidates from the state list.

However, if a party wins more district seats directly than it is entitled according its PR share, it keeps those seats as so-called overhang seats. In the past, this sometimes led to the largest parties in parliament holding more seats than they had been entitled to according to their PR share, while the smaller ones didn't.

This was changed a couple of years ago and strict PR system was instituted. If a party now wins overhang seats, the other parties automatically gain compensatory seats. The proportional seat distribution between the parties remains unchanged, but the parliament as a whole gets bigger. Those additional compensatory seats are of course also filled up by candidates from the state lists.

[President Johnson]

Merkel thinks she's inevitable, but she's done a terrible job. Bad!

All accomplishments over the last decade are the work of the SPD in government or the result/consequence of events like Fukushima.

The SPD better looks out for a candidate who can beat her.

[Hifly]

All accomplishments over the last decade are the work of the SPD in government or the result/consequence of events like Fukushima.

The SPD better looks out for a candidate who can beat her.

Shame the voters disagree with you!!

[JA]

Why does the SPD, the world's oldest major socialist party, no longer inspire voters, but rather acts as a mere coalition partner to help prop up Frau Merkel? Will Germany ever again actually have a leftist government that doesn't rely on the support of the CDU?

[ApatheticAustrian]

simple:

the SPD pushed through some more or less necessary reforms to make germany look more like scandinavia than italy and since its own voting bloc was the biggest enemy to any such reform and the CDU trended to the left in cultural and economical questions, there is ATM no need for a SPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They also like to play it safe.

[Tender Branson]

Wait ... what ?

TV-judge Alexander Hold is from the Free Voters ?

You learn something new every day ...

[palandio]

Merkel's declaration to run again hasn't really changed that much, but at the same time it has strengthened my feeling that we're somehow stuck in a political deadlock that has already damaged our political system and that will continue to do so in the future.

Merkel will stay chancellor, with a severely weakened CDU/CSU still coming in first. The SPD ist too weak and has few options to form a government excluding CDU/CSU. The most likely option is a renewed grand coalition. Politically I might prefer a grand coalition over every option that includes the Greens (at the moment), but at the same time there are few scenarios except a grand coalition and the unrealistic and scary CDU/CSU/FDP/AfD that wouldn't involve the Greens. But an eternal grand coalition (probably depending on partial Green support in the Federal Council) would leave the AfD as the main option to express opposition. During the rise of the FPÖ in Austria many thought it couldn't get over 15%, then over 20%, then over 30%, and look where they are today. So hopefully next year either CDU/CSU or SPD will go into opposition. Just for the sake of the health of our democracy.

Add to this the perceived consensus of the majority of left-leaning journalists and intellectuals to defend Merkel's decisions (which the CDU is already rolling back quietly). This doesn't help the CDU (and also to some degree the SPD). Merkel is increasingly seen as a center-left politician, which she never was and still not is. The media and the cultural elites have lost influence, but they're to a large degree not aware of it. And the reactionaries are posing as the resistance against the allegedly overwhelming powers. You cannot say this, you cannot say that, etc., but in reality you can say almost everything. If you're against it, you're right-wing. How sad.

And the next trend is already arriving from America, because we have to imitate every newest crazy sheet: Identity politics. Including calling people names and then wondering why they wouldn't vote for you. We saw how well that went in America. Well, at least in Germany SPD, Greens and Left are three parties and maybe the SPD can be spared some of this, but I fear it won't.

This has become quite a rant, I'm sorry.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.