NY CITIZENS UNITED GOV HOCHUL+1

[Duke of York]

Zeldin leads among white voters by 2%, while Hochul leads among nonwhite voters by just 8%.

So Hochul is doing just as well as Biden did in 2020 with White voters (when he carried the state by 23), but she's only up by 8 among nonwhite voters (Biden won them by over 50)... uh okay

Yeah this poll makes absolutely zero sense. There is no freaking way she is only up 8 among non white voters.

[Duke of York]

I'm so done with New York polling this cycle.

me too. The polling has been awful. down by two among whites but up by only eight among non whites when Biden won them by 50? There is no way that is true.

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

He should be highly competitive throughout NYC with these numbers. Anyone actually think that's gonna happen?

no. if Zeldin wins im done with politics as this country is beyond saving

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

I have actually been wondering if that's an element of the flood-the-zone strategy in several races.

what do you mean?

[Duke of York]

This race is almost giving me PA-SEN vibes with the White voter polling. The White vote in many of these polls is generally the same, but the variable that is always different is the nonwhite vote (which is understandable, b/c it's a smaller sample, but still, you'd think there would be variation)

Recent NY polls among White voters:
Siena: Zeldin +1
Emerson: Zeldin +1
Citizens United/KAC: Zeldin +2

Yet Siena has Hochul blowing the water out with Blacks (92-2) and strong with Latinos (56-38), then Emerson is in the middle with the two being tied among Latinos and Hochul +30 among Blacks. Then you have this one, with Hochul only up 8 with nonwhites.

Same story in PA-SEN, where Fetterman/Oz are constantly nearly tied among Whites in every poll while the nonwhite vote has been all over the place (though more of an issue with the GOP pollsters who have Oz at 25-30% of the black vote)

Barring a total collapse with minority voters, Hochul only being down 1-2 among Whites would be utterly fantastic for her.

It's just the odd consistency for me.

'

It just doesn't make sense for her to be down 2 with whites and totally collapse among minority voters. I am concerned about this election though.

[Duke of York]

They're just making numbers up at this point.

I think its being done to sow doubt so they can claim fraud when it ends up not being close. The NYC early vote numbers are not showing a one point race.

[Duke of York]

I don’t think she’ll do anywhere near this badly but she is still going to massively underperform Biden with non-whites.

as long as she wins I don't care what the margin is and i doubt she massively underperforms with non whites.

[Duke of York]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Im gettin upset vibes too. I hope im wrong.

[Duke of York]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Luckily NY is much, much more Democratic than Virginia. But there’s no doubt that Hochul is running a horrible campaign and Democrats have dramatically overreached when it comes to crime and covid restrictions.

So you think Eric Adams would have won this race by much more then?

Nah, Adams is a joke at this point.

Democrats have two problems.

One, they are not running a campaign. I see Zedlin ads constantly, and they are pretty good (fear-mongering about crime, but also presenting him as a moderate and humanizing him by including his children). I only just saw my first Hochul ad yesterday, and it was basically the “Trump is bad message” that reeks of desperation. Hochul and NY Democrats have absurd amounts of money so there’s really no excuse for this.

Two, basically everything in the state is worse than 4 years ago. Democrats got their supermajority and used it to shut down public schools, pass a lot of activist nonsense, and do corruption. There is not really an affirmative case to be made for 4 more years. On the issues that people actually care about, they are silent. Meanwhile Hochul today mused about putting schoolchildren back in masks.

I am still voting straight ticket D because I’m not a sicko, but it’s hard to really advocate for more of this.

Voters such as yourself are the reason why Hochul will win again. What incentive is she and Democrats going to have to moderate at all?

Why should my state vote for someone who is totally out of touch with our states values? I will not be voting for another Republican for a long time.

Even you think she will win again?