A Second Chance - CONCLUSION

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Whoa. How did my timeline, which I worked incredibly hard to bring to over 63 pages, get reduced to 45?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Massive post editing? Or perhaps a very active poster was banned?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Whoa. How did my timeline, which I worked incredibly hard to bring to over 63 pages, get reduced to 45?

The global posts per page was changed. All of the threads on the forum are like that now. I think it went from 10 -> 15? Or something of the sort.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

September 11th, 1985

Dinkins, Bellamy, Esposito Win Primaries

"Yesterday, in the primaries taking place in the race for Mayor of New York City, three major candidates emerged as winners. For the Democrats, Manhattan Burrough President David Dinkins, a leader of the city's African-American community, was able to beat Eric Ruano-Melendez. Meanwhile, in the wake of Mayor Cuomo's decision to not run for a third term, the Liberal party was left without a major leader. However, City Councilwoman and former Council President, was able to win the primary with a commanding majority over former City Councilman Henry Stern and a host of smaller candidates. Meanwhile, John A. Esposito, a former New York State Assemblyman and previous candidate for Mayor was able to win the primary with nearly eighty percent of the vote. With New York in a poor fiscal state and crime on the rise, Bellamy is predicted not to do well in the upcoming general election. With Republicans having been out of the Mayoralty of New York City since the days of John Lindsay and Sanford Garelik, they stand to gain a lot from the current climate in the city."

David Dinks (D), Carol Bellamy (L), and John Esposito (R), the three major candidates for Mayor of New York

September 25th, 1985
A phone conversation between U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Patrick J. Buchanan and former Secretary of State William F. Buckley.
    Buchanan: This- this is completely ridiculous. Hatfield's bringing down troop levels in Libya. For the last four years he's made sure to communicate that America is weak.
    Buckley: This has been a problem for sometime. The Soviets have led us in missile strength since 1982.
    Buchanan: Now that I'm stuck here in Ireland, my hands are tired. And from what I've been hearing, anyone who objects back in Washington D.C. is finding themselves quickly moving into the private sector or taking overseas positions.
    Buckley: Yes, yes. This does present an issue. And Charles Percy holding my old job is no help either. I was able to speak with George Bush just the other day and he is in no way content with this turn of events in Libya.
    Buchanan: Well in general he hasn't been a fan of Hatfield. Hasn't been since the early 70's. [Buchanan smiles]
    Buckley: Oh heh yes. Back when Hatfield opposed every move Bush made on foreign policy.
    Buchaan: Well it's been nice talking with you Bill. I've got a meeting in five minute however. Keep me informed on what's happening on the homefront, okay?
    Buckley: Of course Pat.

The Resume of Patrick J. Buchanan

• Writer for the St. Louis Globe Democrat (1961-1965)
• Aide for Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona (1965-1967)
• Advisor for the Barry Goldwater for President Campaign (1967-1968)
• Manager of the Ronald Reagan for President Campaigan (1971-1972)
• Press Secretary of the Spiro T. Agnew for President Campaign (1972)
• White House Communications Director (1973-1974)
• Special Assistant to the President (1974-1975)
• Special Adviser to the President (January 1981-May 1985)
• United States Ambassador to Ireland (May 1985-Present)

November 5th, 1985
New York City Mayoral Election

Former New York State Assemblyman John Esposito (Republican, Conservative, Right-to-Life) - 43%
Manhattan Borough President David Dinkins (Democrat) - 29%
City Council President Carol Bellamy (Liberal) - 25%
Others - 3%

"Esposito was able to win the election thanks to a number of factors. Despite Mayor Cuomo's attempts to reel in city finances, especially following New York City's brush with bankruptcy i 1975, the city was in a horrible fiscal state. As well, crime figures had risen by significant amounts since the beginning of Cuomo's mayoralty in 1978. With Liberal Party nominee Carol Bellamy representing Cuomo's failed fiscal policies and Democratic nominee David Dinkins seeming to represent rampant minority crime, Esposito was able to appeal to white ethnics and the middle class who'd both heard of and experienced the rise in crime and wanted a stronger response to it. Some compared it to campaigns reminiscent of the late 1960's where many campaigns used fears of black radicalism and peace protests to win."

-Wikipedia article on John A. Esposito, 106th Mayor of New York

[Jerseyrules]

Interesting turn with regards to New York City.  Looking forward to seeing Esposito in action (who is he btw? )

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Interesting turn with regards to New York City.  Looking forward to seeing Esposito in action (who is he btw? )

In real life he was a Republican New York State Assemblyman who was the 1981 NYC Mayoral candidate for Mayor.

[Jerseyrules]

Interesting turn with regards to New York City.  Looking forward to seeing Esposito in action (who is he btw? )

In real life he was a Republican New York State Assemblyman who was the 1981 NYC Mayoral candidate for Mayor.

Cool.  And my favorite Senators, James Buckley and Al D'Amato?  .  Oh and John Marchi and Ed Koch?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Interesting turn with regards to New York City.  Looking forward to seeing Esposito in action (who is he btw? )

In real life he was a Republican New York State Assemblyman who was the 1981 NYC Mayoral candidate for Mayor.

Cool.  And my favorite Senators, James Buckley and Al D'Amato?  .  Oh and John Marchi and Ed Koch?

Buckley's up for re-election in '88, though there could be other things on the horizon. There are a lot of calls for him to run for President. As far as I know, Javits is still alive though that'll probably change soon (March 7th, 1986, to be precise), leading to a special election. He himself has already made clear he won't be running for another term in '86. As I recall, Marchi ran for mayor a couple times but never won. Ed Koch is the Transportation Secretary. D'Amato ran for Governor against Moynihan in '82, but didn't win. He ran and won a seat in the State Senate however in 1984 from Nassau County's district (whatever number that is).

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

January 1st, 1986

Mayor Esposito Sworn In

"Former New York State Assemblyman and Mayor-Elect of New York City John A. Esposito was sworn in at midnight today for his first term as Mayor. Speaking to reporters and spectators at half past nine in the morning, Esposito's address focused mainly on the issues which had made him the first Republican mayor since John Lindsay, and the first one in many decades to have no affiliation with the New York Liberal Party. His remarks included a call to arms against the steady increase in crime that the city has seen since the end of the last decade. As well, he promised to "reel-in" city spending and ensure that New York avoids the crisis it suffered in 1975 in which it required a federal loan to steady itself. Most of all, Esposito's speech seemed to be a repudiation of the last eight years under Cuomo who has been unavailable for comment since the election. The city's crime, its budget deficits, and its high property taxes are all associated with the man whose term ended at 12:00 last night."

New York's former Mayor has been unavailable for comment

"In fall and winter of 1985, as my budget team headed by Cap Weinberger reviewed the numbers, a discovery was made. In 1985 growth had receded, and the only way to bridge the budget gap, something we'd been working for years to do, would be to raise taxes. Taxes hadn't faced serious raises since Bobby Kennedy's 1978 gas tax, and before that the Bush administration. Many conservatives within the cabinet and the economic team prided themselves on the steady decrease of the budget since 1981 without any new taxes and with only increases in growth. However, the recession that hit the country in the fall--right at a time where it was estimated that sales would be picking up with the approach of Christmas and others holidays--had left all projections stating that America would be falling just short of a balanced budget. As well, the rate of government growth was projected, for the first time in aw while, to outpace economic growth and there was no new revenue to make up for it. Speaking with Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker and Senate Minority Leader Robert Byrd, it was agreed that a tax on larger corporations and a rise in the highest income bracket would be pushed through. By confining the tax increases to larger entities, many Democrats were able to fall in line with it, leaving only conservative Republicans as the outliers. As the uproar over Libya had finally died down, I would found myself pushing my party's right wing one step closer to insurrection."

-Against the Grain, Mark Hatfield

January 6th, 1986

Hatfield, Senate,
Announce Tax Increase

"First of all, these new taxes are being placed only on incredibly large corporations and individuals within the top income tax bracket. Second of all, even President Eisenhower raised taxes, and the last time America even came close to a balanced budget was in 1961. These taxes will last only a short time and help make the final stride towards closing the gap between government intake and output, delivering us a solidly, fiscally sound country, which is what this administration has promised since day one."

-Vice President John Warner (R-VA), on early morning television, January 9th, 1986

"The mistake that the President is making here is that he believes that a sudden budget shortfall gives him the right to suddenly grab a chunk of the money out of the private sector, out of the free market, and use it to bring about the balanced budget he so often has claimed he desires. However, the problem, as has been said by some of the President's supporters, is that government growth is outpacing economic growth. That's what needs to be stopped, and the President is instead taking on the issue from the opposite end."

-Senator James Buckley (C/R-NY) January 21st, 1986

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

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March 8th, 1986

Jacob Javits Dead

Yesterday, Jacob K. Javits, the senior Senator from New York State and one that has served since 1957, died. The beginning of his public career harkens back to 1946 when he was elected to the House of Representatives. A liberal member of the Republican party for several years, in his last Senate run in 1980, Javits won re-election by a slim margin as the nominee of the New York Liberal party. With a long and important career in New York politics that involved the championing of civil rights and the cause of the poor, Javits will be long remembered.

Jacob K. Javits (May 18th, 1904-March 7th, 1986)

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"By 1986, I had decided it was high time I retired from politics. My failed 1982 run for governor had hit it home to me that I was no longer welcome in my own state, and failed attempts to garner support in late 1985 for another gubernatorial or senate run only re-enforced the fact. I was beginning to assimilate back into being a private citizen. I was sitting on the board of a contracting firm and it was bearable. And as for any man who said I should run for President? Hell no, not as a Democrat anyway. It had become clear that the Democratic party I had been a proud member of for years had long sold out its principles. Re-nominating Kennedy wasn't the half of it. The fact that the men who came closest to the nomination in 1984 were Walter Mondale and Jesse Helms also was a large part of it. And the fact that we had nominated a man far to the right of Hatfield? After years of not admitting the fact, seeing the state of the Democrats today, I'm proud to say I voted for Hatfield in 1984. At the beginning of 1986, there was little that could convince me that politics was something worth involvement. However, when leafing through a newspaper at the breakfast table one morning, I was shocked. George McGovern, former Vice President of the United States, was running for Senate. While he and I had grown distant during the Kennedy years, and I didn't approve entirely of his endorsement of Walter Mondale, nevertheless, I admired him. And it seemed that he was back. McGovern, a man muted by the Kennedy administration years earlier, had his old self back and was running for Senate again. Maybe the Democrats had some hope after all."

-"Death of the Democrats", Mike Gravel, 1996

November 4th, 1986
United States Senate Elections
With the economy still in a recession and fatigue after six years of Republican domination, the Democrats are expected to make large gains today.

Democrats: 55 (+8)
Republicans: 44 (-8)
Conservatives: 1 (+/-0)

Notable Senate Races
California: Governor Pete Wilson, who has served since 1981, succeeding Reagan, is elected to the Senate, trading places with Jerry Brown who's been elected to the Governorship.
Colorado: Democratic Governor Dick Lamm is elected to the Senate narrowly.
Georgia: United States Agriculture Secretary and former Congressman Newt Gingrich fails by a slim margin to be elected to the United States Senate.
New York: incumbent Senator Al D'Amoto, in his fifth month in office, is re-elected narrowly.
South Dakota: Former Vice President George McGovern returns to the Senate, beating Republican incumbent, James Abnor.

Other Notable Races
Arkansas: Governor Bill Clinton is re-elected to another term as Governor of Arkansas.
California: With Pete Wilson running for Jerry Brown's Senate seat, Jerry Brown instead is elected to Pete Wilson's gubernatorial mansion.
Mississippi: Former Senator Thad Cochran is elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.
New York: Geraldine Ferraro, former Congresswoman and 1984 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, is elected Governor of New York, succeeding Daniel Patrick Moynihan and giving the Democrats a fourth term in power.
Texas: Governor Ron Paul and Congressman George Bush are re-elected to their respective offices.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

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"Upon leaving his office and allowing Ferraro to take control of the state he'd been chief executive of for the past twelve years, Moynihan's aspirations, or rather the aspirations of his aides and supporters, turned national. Paul Wolfowitz, who'd staffed for Moynihan in the past and had worked for the State Department, began the running of an underground presidential campaign for Moynihan. By spring, Moynihan had given two speeches before the International Council on Foreign Relations, spoken at his alma mater Tufts University, and was scheduled to give two commencement addresses at college in New Hampshire. As well, throughout the summer of 1987, he began making appearances on many cable news program, criticizing the President's announced nuclear freeze treaty. During this time, Moynihan's name recognition saw a measured resurgence, and polls concerning the Democratic nomination began listing him as an option.

For George McGovern, name recognition was proving much easier. A former Vice President, a newly elected Senator, and a man who'd been considered a contender before, polls including him wasn't a problem. Polling, however, was. McGovern, despite his demeanor as a soft-spoken conservative Methodist from South Dakota, and his moderation on some issues, had a reputation as being quite liberal, and to a large extent he had earned it. His quite outspoken opposition to the Vietnam and Palestinian conflicts ahd cemented that image in the minds of those who knew who he was, and that aside he'd been Vice President in a quite unsuccessful administration. With former President Bobby Kennedy still holding negative approvals among the American people, McGovern wasn't faring much better. The Democratic base was changing as well. While in the 1960's and 1970's there'd been a lot of room for the gaggle of liberal senators from Western and Mid-Western states--Frank Church, Mike Gravel, William Proxmire, and Eugene McCarthy serving as good examples--times had changed. McGovern had even had to fight to win his primary for Senate the previous year. With Hatfield's term over half-over, the Democrats had few leaders whereas eight years previous it seemed the Republicans had many."

-"Collapse", Bob Woodward

[Jerseyrules]

Truly awesome stuff.  My only argument is that I'm not sure that Ferraro is all that liberal; I think she's ideologically very close to Moynihan.  In her first house election, she campaigned as "a small-c conservative" and her slogan was "Finally, a tough Democrat"

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Hatfield's Successor?
Time Magazine Article, June 1987

With Vice President Warner continually denying presidential ambitions, something he's maintained since his selection to be on the Republican ticket in 1984, many are wondering who will take up the mantle of filling Hatfield's shoes. The possible Republican bench is a wide and diverse one, ranging from coast to coast and every ideological fraction of the Republican party. However, who will step up that Hatfield will have enough confidence in to endorse?

Hatfield's coalition of support is a diverse and fractional one, and there are few who can match his own set of principles and beliefs. Nevertheless, there are many who have aided Hatfield. First among them is Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker. Senate Majority Leader for the first six years of the Republicans' hold on the presidency, Baker's ability at passing legislation was key in Reagan's economic recovery package as well as well as nearly all of Hatfield's agenda. Largely lacking ideology, Baker has served consummately as a tool of both the Hatfield and Reagan administrations and would do well to be rewarded with Hatfield's endorsement and his backing.

A key proponent of Hatfield's agenda in the House of Representatives is Jack Kemp of New York. A member of the conservative wing, he nonetheless assisted in the passage of a number of Hatfield's moderate economic packages, apart from the 1987 tax increases. Kemp's anti-tax ideology was personified in the late President Reagan, and a Kemp candidacy could be a uniting factor between Hatfield's wing and the Reagan conservatives. Another House member who has been instrumental in leading the Republican caucus is John Anderson. A Representative since 1961, Anderson has served as leader of the House Republican Conference since 1969, been elected Chairman of the Republican National Committee twice, and has been an ally of Hatfield for a number of years. His election to the Chairmanship of the Republican National Committee was backed by Hatfield and Anderson has served him obediently. With his rise in national prominence, the groundwork could be laid for a Presidential campaign.

In lieu of a Vice President, a Secretary of State may be the answer. In the days of the 1800's, it was customary that a Secretary of State be in the running for the Presidency. Charles Percy, the Secretary of State since January 1985 looks to be clear presidential material. A former businessman, three-term Senator, and the man who acted as architect of the recently ratified nuclear freeze treaty, Percy's career is one of accomplishment, and should he choose to run for the Presidency, it would be his for the taking.

Aside from all those who might be seeking the endorsement of Hatfield, there are those for whom Hatfield's opposition would be an asset. Senator James Buckley of New York, the Senate's only member from the Conservative party (though he remains endorsed by the New York Republican party and would be eligible for the primary), has been a consistent opponent of Hatfield's foreign policy. As well, he opposed the tax increases of the past year and has called on Hatfield to act on his pro-life beliefs and openly endorse Buckley's frequently-proposed Right-to-Life amendment.

[Jerseyrules]

I love the way this is coming together!  Awesome stuff man!

Buckley 88!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

"New York was the center of Presidential speculation throughout the summer of 1987. While Geraldine Ferraro attempted to balance an aggressive and successful agenda with a good amount of media time, and while Daniel Patrick Moynihan was coming closer and closer to announcing a bid for the Presidency, another New Yorker, Senator James L. Buckley, was considering a run of his own. Buckley was notable as the leader of the New York Conservative Party, a splinter group from a very moderate to liberal New York Republican party in the mid-1960's. He'd run for Senate in 1968 before a successful bid in the three-way race of 1970. In 1976, he secured narrow re-election with the endorsement of the Republican party as well against the liberal Democrat Bella Abzug. Finally, in 1982 he'd gained a 52% majority running against Democratic and Liberal party nominees in a year nationally good for Republicans. While his state had typically been the source of prominent liberals such as Nelson Rockefeller and Jacob Javits, Buckley's career stood out.

While he'd found Presidents Agnew, Bush, and Reagan to be anywhere between fantastic and tolerable, and had even made friends with Agnew and Reagan, Hatfield was a different matter entirely. When George Bush had talked about detente, he'd meant an easing of tensions. When Hatfield said that word, to Buckley, he meant utter surrender to the Soviet Union. Speaking at a pro-Jewish event in New York, Buckley'd made the declaration in March of 1986 that "It is high time that the Evil Empire of the Soviet Union be tossed upon the ash heap of history, and the war that has divided this nation for the last half century come to a close." The term "Evil Empire" had become a new political buzz-word, and had even prompted a release from the State Department attempting to calm the water, assuring the world that no, the United States was not at war with the Soviet Union, nor were they an "Evil Empire". While that might have made a few foreign policy experts working for the International Council on Foreign Relations breathe easy, said Buckley in a meeting with a few conservative Republicans, for many millions of Americans, it was utter surrender.

Talking with his brother Bill Buckley in Bill's offices in New York City, James had important matters to discuss. I'm thinking of running for President, the elder Buckley stated. The time had come, he stated. This was in July of 1987, with political jubilation and fallout still occurring from the ratification of Hatfield's nuclear freeze treaty. It was time that he abandoned his seat in the Senate in order to make a bid for the Presidency. Hatfield had made clear that he was ready to start beating missiles into plowshares in the name of "easing tensions between nations" and "de-escalation and eventual end of the Cold War". As well, Secretary of State Charles Percy, Hatfield's main man on the treaty, was being touted as Hatfield's likely successor. What party will you be running on? Bill asked. Senator Buckley had a chance to either claim the nomination of a national Conservative Party easily, or attempt to win the Republican nomination itself against what would likely be a slew of establishment candidates. I'm considering the Republican primary. This may be our last chance to save it. And if not, then I think the Conservative party would be willing to accept me as their nominee. Bill agreed that that was a safe road, though many of the Conservative party faithful--and there were quite few--likely wouldn't be happy about his choice to first run in the Republican primaries. However, running first in the primaries, and, if not winning against say Percy or Baker or another one of the establishment types, would still help raise name recognition and that would be important for a third-party campaign. With that, the brothers Buckley shared a drink and Jim readied for a flight back to Washington D.C."

-"Collapse", Bob Woodward

"It is today that I announce my candidacy for the Republican nomination. For too often has our nation been held hostage by liberals willing to sell this nation down the river to the Soviet Union. When Republicans swept into office in 1980, we were still the number one nuclear power in the world. Now we play second fiddle to our Russian friends. Meanwhile, as the strides we've made here at home in the resurgence of economic prosperity are impressive, they are hardly enough. Our streets are filled with crime, drug use has spiked in the inner cities, and we need proper welfare reform to take place. It is due to these disagreements that I have with the current administration that I'm choosing to seek the Republican nomination for President of the United States."

-Senator James L. Buckley, (C/R-NY) July 7th, 1987

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Republican Field - 1988

While James Buckley became the first prominent person to enter the field, he was hardly the only one. With Buckley's announcement, Hatfield began operating manically behind the scenes. While Secretary of State Charles Percy was retiring for good, another Illinois moderate was soon convinced by the President to make a presidential run. Congressman John Anderson, a member of the House since 1961 and a longtime leader of his party--most recently being elected Chairman of the Republican National Committee--had been an ally of Hatfield and a loyal footsoldier for his party. Despite Anderson's endorsement of Lindsay nearly eight years ago, such times had long passed, and his voting record was largely in line with that of the administration. Anderson, having foregone a run in 1980, having failed to be picked for Vice President in both 1980 and 1984, and having risen in power and recognition throughout his party, was convinced that it was his time. Anderson announced his candidacy in August of 1987.

John Anderson of Illinois - Hatfield's candidate

Vice President Warner on the other hand was sick of the continued power struggled between the "Hatfield and Reagan factions". A Republican who was fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and hawkish on foreign policy, he felt he belong to neither faction, and his connection with the Hatfield administration complicated matters. An intelligent man, he remembered the difficulties of the Nixon campaign in 1960--attempting to both ride on the previous administration's accomplishments while also showing himself to be different than the incumbent--and how close Nixon had come. Warner wanted no part of that and instead intended to retire back to Virginia and plan for a Senate run in 1990. By June he'd made perfectly clear he wasn't running.

Meanwhile, other candidates began popping out of the woodwork. In Texas, the three main Republican power players had to sit down to discuss each's presidential ambitions. Texas' senior Senator James Baker made perfectly clear that he wanted to play no part in the upcoming "bloodbath" of the 1988 primaries. He instead told both Perot and Paul he planned on retiring that year anyway, potentially clearing the path for Congressman Bush to run for his seat--the same seat his father had held. Baker had felt continually out of sync with his party's Texas delegation anyhow, matching up with neither Senator Perot nor Governor Paul on many ideological points. He wished the both of them the best of luck, however. That left Paul and Perot. Perot, a fiery populist and a brash egotist, nevertheless chose to bow out to Paul who had much greater experience in politics. Nevertheless, Perot did have large plans for his own candidacy once Paul--God willing--left the national scene. Governor Ron Paul had been preparing for a run for some time now himself. A former four-term Congressman from the 22nd District, and now a two-term Governor, Paul's national profile had been on the rise since the days of the second Kennedy White House. He too had foregone a presidential campaign and had been passed over for Vice President twice. He was also a favorite of the grass roots, and by December of 1987, two months into his official campaign, had raised millions from "money bombs".

Paul began picking up a large amount of grassroots support early in the campaign

Jack Kemp, a famous Reagan ally, long-time member of Congress, former football player, and by that point the United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, had also been mulling a run. However, with the entrance of his state's very own James L. Buckley, an icon among conservatives, and sure to win the "Reagan vote" of the primaries from eight years ago, Kemp saw himself sinking in the hypothetical primary polls through the latter half of 1987. A Kemp friend and former Reagan confidant, Ambassador to Ireland Patrick J. Buchanan had made the same decision. Nevertheless, he resigned his position as Ambassador to Ireland anyway upon hearing Buckley's announcement. However, it wasn't to run. He'd be managing Buckley's campaign. In Massachusetts, rising star and former Democrat, Senator Paul Tsongas was also considering his entrance into the Republican primaries. He had, like Anderson, been considered a potential hand-picked successor for Hatfield. However, his newness to the party and the fact that many base members were already upset enough with Hatfield (let alone back a man who just left the Democrats!) he was dropped. Nevertheless, Tsongas was an ambitious man, and considered himself a potentially strong contender up until he officially backed out in November. However, he like Perot, was prepared to wait patiently for 1992.

Not all people were as willing to step aside and let others run as Kemp, Buchanan, and Tsongas were, however. Senate Minority Leader Howard H. Baker, Jr., who'd run in 1980 and had come in third, wanted another crack at the nomination. Despite the party's losses in 1986, Baker was still a powerful figure, and officially the most powerful man in the party aside from Hatfield himself. If any man had enough clout to take on Anderson and win, it'd be Baker. In a phone call with former President George Bush, Baker was promised that if he showed himself to be a tier one contender, Bush would hand out his full endorsement. He'd taken enough condescension from Hatfield the last four years as it was, Bush thought, and he'd be damned if he let a Hatfieldite take the reins for another four. Baker was Bush's type of Republican. Southern, fiscally responsible, mildly hawkish, and overall moderate. Baker too announced in August, a mere two weeks after Anderson entered the field.

Howard Baker - The 2nd Establishment Candidate?

Bush himself had ruled out running for a second non-consecutive term. "Oh, I have no doubt I could do it", he told a family member, "I'm still quite capable of this whole 'president' thing. However, the moment I stepped into that field, I'd be called a dinosaur. As well, I'd be eclipsing all the newer leaders of this party, the bright men and women who can lead it into the future." Many speculated that he didn't want to risk the embarrassment of running again and losing the general, or worse, loosing in the primary. Between the Reaganites and the Hatfieldites, he might be crowded out. No, "Papa Bush" was willing to sit back and watch things play out, and only meddle a little.

There were several other potential candidates that bowed out. Senate Minority Whip Ted Stevens of Alaska, Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum of Kansas, former Senator Paul Laxalt of Nebada, former Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Senators Pete Wilson and Barry Goldwater Jr. both of California, and so on. And there were also several minor candidates that proved of little consequence, Congressman Robert Dornan of California, former diplomat Alan Keyes, and Governor Pete duPont of Delaware being good examples.

Candidates in the field as of December 31st, 1987
Senate Minority Leader Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee
Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Senator James L. Buckley of New York
Governor Ron Paul of Texas
Governor Pete duPont of Delaware
Former Defense Secretary Pete McCloskey of California
Congressman Robert Dornan of California
Former diplomat Alan Keyes of Maryland

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Democratic Field - 1988

While Geraldine Ferraro was the hands-down front-runner from the moment Bentsen lost in 1984, as Hatfield's second term wore on her rising star seemed to in fact be dropping. The other potential candidates all had much greater experience handling the national stage and, more importantly, the national media. Ferraro's chances received a slight bump upon her election to the New York Governorship, but it soon became clear that if she used it as a stepping stone too soon, it would backfire tremendously. That was why Reagan's own announcement in 1979 had been so delayed, having won California's governorship in 1978. As well Ferraro's fledgling media team struggled to stay relevant on the national scene. Meanwhile, potential candidates like Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Bill Clinton were able to continually renew their relevance. Moynihan did this through his comments on foreign policy and his work through think tanks throughout his final two years as Governor, and then during his "retirement". Moynihan's profile among the Democrats' hawkish foreign policy crowd was quite high and by the New Hampshire primary in 1988, the candidate, who would be announcing in June of 1987, had shored up a large part of the Democrats' North-Eastern base.

Despite his oddities and the "age" issue, Moynihan proved to be a formidable candidate

Clinton took a different approach. Unlike Moynihan he was not some well trained intellectual who won establishment praise through clever soundbites criticizing Hatfield's foreign and domestic policy. While those did Moynihan well, Clinton had his own style. A populist campaigner, he kept his own name afloat among the primary electorate through campaigning for his fellow Democrats. Despite still serving as Governor of Arkansas, his "re-election campaign" in 1986 in fact took place in several states including Missouri, Oklahoma, and Florida, all places where Democrats made gains in the mid-terms. And while some establishment figures dismissed "Bubba" as merely another Southern "good ol' boy", Clinton's record and his status as a Rhodes Scholar spoke differently. He was the smart man the common man could trust.

Among those that had run for the nomination four years before, Mondale, Helms, and so on, only two appeared willing to step up to the plate again. Mondale, a career politician, was not looking for another tiring run that would incur another massive campaign debt and likely not win. Yes, he could say that the nomination should've gone to him. That he would have been a better candidate. However, the Democratic base was not as receptive to past also-rans as the Republicans might be. Helms too, though stubborn "as a North Carolina mule", was unwilling to launch another campaign. He'd done his job: put a Southerner on a ticket, and this year Clinton might do the job for him. However, Jesse Jackson was as ready as ever to run for President again. Meanwhile, California's new Governor, Jerry Brown, was certainly considering it. He'd built a national movement for himself, comprised of Westerners, the youth, "yuppies", and New Englanders which he hoped he could turn into a winning coalition. The fact that many of these supporters thought that the nomination had been "robbed" of him four years ago helped a lot. However, he wasn't sure...

Civil Rights activist and Reverend Jesse Jackson was willing to give it a second run

Meanwhile, another Westerner was ready to steal his spot. Senator and former Vice President George McGovern at last felt ready to step back into the ring of presidential politics. With the end of RFK's presidency going on eight years, he'd finally established himself as his own man again. In the Senate, he'd taken a bold approach, voting how he felt and outspokenly criticizing what he opposed. While Vice President he'd been criticized for not differing enough with the President, especially on foreign policy. No such thing was going to happen this time around, and McGovern was sure of it. His candidacy, which began in September, 1987, quickly picked up grass-roots support as well. The same people who had given McCarthy a victory in Iowa were ready to do that for him. It soon looked like a largely regional battle was shaping up. McGovern with the West, Moynihan with the North-East, and Clinton with the South. However, all players were unaccounted for.

John McCain has long been considered a rising star in his party, ever since his close victory in the 1981 Arizona Senate race. His status as a war hero and veteran, a foreign policy "expert" (having worked as an analyst and adviser for the latter half of Robert F. Kennedy's presidency), an outspoken critic of Hatfield's foreign policy, and a successful Democrat in the typically Republican state of Arizona all made him seem like a strong, capable, and, most importantly, electable candidate. However, McCain was not yet ready for a run. He viewed his career as being to young to throw away in a bid for the Presidency. As well, he was up for re-election in 1988, and there would always be later years. Jim Folsom, Jr. was another potential candidate. A populist senator from the solidly Democratic state of Alabama, he appealed to both poor whites and to African-Americans. However, Folsom had been low key in the Senate and was largely content with his Senate seat.

Brown, who had seen McGovern's campaign start picking up support and voters--his voters--was by then anxious to jump into the race. What had McGovern done for him? The man had endorse Mondale four years ago! And now that same man was taking away votes that should be his! The newly minted California Governor announced the beginning of his campaign in October of 1987.

Governors Brown and Clinton squaring off at a primary debate in December

By December, a large field had shaped up, including representatives of different wings of the party from across the country.

Democratic Primary Field as of December 31st, 1987
Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York
Senator George McGovern of South Dakota
Governor Jerry Brown of California
Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas
Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri
Reverend Jesse Jackson of Illinois
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota
Former Congressman Larry McDonald of Georgia
Congressman Jim Traficant of Ohio
Mr. David Duke of Louisiana

[Jerseyrules]

THIS IS GONNA BE AWESOME!!!!!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What're y'all's thoughts on the Hatfield Presidency? His accomplishments include an economic recovery, a balanced budget, the ending of Agnew's War on Drugs, allowing gays to serve openly in the military, and finally what amounts to a "nuclear freeze" treaty.

[Enderman]

I just started reading this, its good! But does anybody know what Reagan's last words were?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I just started reading this, its good! But does anybody know what Reagan's last words were?

Thanks! Probably something along the lines of "ouch", most likely.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

February 8th - The Iowa Caucuses
The Iowa Caucuses were the culmination of many months of campaigning. On the Republican side, nearly all the major candidates had been hoping to be competitive in the small rural state. While Paul worked to gain grassroots support, especially among the youth, Anderson was strong in the Eastern and urban counties, Baker tried to win the "George Bush, 1976" vote, and Buckley attempted to appeal to Republican Catholics and Evangelicals. However, with polls showing nearly a dead heat, it took a huge use of power to push one candidate over the top. Two days before Iowa, President Hatfield appeared with Anderson at a campaign rally. Come caucus day, Anderson was able to claim victory.

Anderson - 31%%
Baker - 26%
Buckley - 24%
Paul - 15%
Others - 3%

Meanwhile, for the Democrats, the race was largely a race between the left-wing activists and McCarthy supporters that were now for McGovern, and the rural conservative Clinton voters (whose support Gephardt had been counting on). Moynihan, though a front-runner, was largely ignoring Iowa in favor of the more friendly New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Jerry Brown, entering the field later than McGovern, found his support greatly diminished. He would be forced to count on other primaries and caucuses for support if he wanted to win the nomination. In a close race, McGovern, supported by grass roots left-wing activists and traditional Democratic progressives, was able to win Iowa.

McGovern - 27%
Clinton - 24%
Brown - 17%
Gephardt - 11%
Moynihan - 10%
Jackson - 8%
McCarthy - 2%
Others - 1%

February 16th - New Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire was the state both New Yorkers had been waiting for. For Buckley, his status as a "yankee" conservative was a great plus to the voters of the anti-tax state. For Moynihan, the Catholic base and the fact that it was closer to New York than places like Iowa and South Dakota were key. Both candidates' hopes proved correct as they won, winning easier victories than their rivals in Iowa, though hardly land-slides.

Buckley - 33%
Anderson - 20%
Paul - 16%
du Pont - 14%
Baker - 13%
Others - 4%

Buckley's victory put him officially on the map. In earlier, pre-Iowa races, it had been Anderson and Baker who had made their marks, setting them up well for Iowa and afterwards. However, Buckley's comfortable victory in the granite state confirmed what had already been assumed, that Buckley would be a fore to be reckoned with in the primaries. For Moynihan, the same thing was done. The New York titans were on the map.

Moynihan - 37%
Brown - 23%
Clinton - 20%
McGovern - 19%
Jackson - 9%
Gephardt - 5%
Others - 7%

The Republican Primary Map as of 2/16/88

Red-Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee
Green-Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Blue-Senator James L. Buckley of New York

The Democratic Primary Map as of 2/16/88

Green-Senator George McGovern of South Dakota
Red-Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York

[Enderman]

I just started reading this, its good! But does anybody know what Reagan's last words were?

Thanks! Probably something along the lines of "ouch", most likely.

Your welcome.. And as for "ouch" LOL

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So glad to see this back

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Republican Primaries February 18th-February 27th, 1988
The first post-New Hampshire race was in Nevada. In the largely ignored caucus, Governor Paul, despite the endorsement of Paul Laxalt going to Buckley, was able to win a narrow plurality. Following that, both Buckley and Anderson scored victories. For Buckley it was in South Dakota while in incredibly close Minnesota caucus, Anderson was able to pull of a victory. Anderson won another narrow victory in Maine while Buckley in a close race with Paul claimed Alaska. Baker was the one largely counted out in the February races, having bided his time and invested his warchest in the upcoming Southern primaries on Super Tuesday. However, for the time being, the race seemed to be largely between Anderson and Buckley.

Green-Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Blue-Senator James L. Buckley of New York
Yellow-Governor Ronald E. Paul of Texas
Red-Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee

Democratic Primaries February 23rd-February 28th, 1988
The primaries throughout the rest of February split along regional lines. Though there were only three, the dominant forces in the race, at least to the North of the Mason-Dixon line, were made clear. In Minnesota and South Dakota, McGovern scored easy victories. South Dakota was obviously his home state. In Minnesota, where McGovern not only had regional appeal, but was endorsed by Mondale (who had been endorsed by McGovern four years earlier) and several members of the local party, he scored an easy victory with over forty percent of the vote. Meanwhile in Maine, where Brown had narrowly lost four years ago, he was nonetheless unable to regain that same momentum and Moynihan won with 38% of the vote. Meanwhile, Clinton, like Baker, was biding his time in his home region.

Green-Senator George McGovern of South Dakota
Red-Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York