Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[Skill and Chance]

Either CO or NC depending on who is winning.  I think Hillary would be stronger even in FL than CO.

[Skill and Chance]

North Carolina's the most likely Romney state to flip, but it is historically unlikely since it requires the Democratic nominee to outperform Obama in 2012.

North Carolina is experiencing the same similar demographic trends to those of those of Virginia.  The urban areas (Research Triangle, Charlotte, etc.) is gaining population while the rural parts of the state is losing population.

Furthermore, after the Republicans have taken over the state government for the first time in 130 years, they have alienate the urban dweller by pushing through far-right wing agenda.

One disadvantage for Democrats is the likelihood of reduced African-American voter turnout without the first black President on the ballot.

I'm curious regarding the possibility of a backlash against state Republicans helping national candidates. Similar predictions have been made for other races over the years, but I'm wondering if it's ever happened.

Is there any presidential election in which a backlash against the Governor was deemed enough to swing a state? If so, what election and what state?

You could make a credible case for Florida 2012.  You could also argue that the whole Blagojevich saga got Mark Kirk elected in IL, but of course that isn't presidential.