2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Salazar and Giminez both winning, I do wonder how the GOP handles south Florida, I don't think they can save both districts for 10 years, but would they even try?

It's probably possible but they have to get Miami Beach out of the Salazar district and hop over to Naples. Even then, all three probably aren't Safe R. To give you an idea of what they're working with, this area is 3 districts of population and was DeSantis+7. Probably Trump+14 or so.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly thinking the FL GOP Could go as far as 8-21 .
Cut FL  5th(I hardly doubt either supreme court thinks FL 5th follows Gingles as a compact community and keep the Likely R Tallahassee seat and try to make a lean to Likely Jacksonville and one like the current FL 4th.

2 Orlando/ 1 Tampa to St Petersburg/ 5 SE FL sinks for D's and try to shore up all Cuban seats to vote for Desantis/Scott.

A lot of seats will be thin, but I can't see anywhere where another sink would massively help R seats. Lastly out of the 3 white D SE Fl seats you could try creating a swing seat from the beaches?

7-1-21?
The one sink that I could really see helping is maybe the old Corrine Brown district but that would be too controversial to make IMO.

Pretty sure you need 6 SEFL D districts with population growth. And no, you really can't draw a swing district. Not nearly enough R-leaning precincts.

You also have to think about incumbent residences and demands before going all out on a gerrymander.

my bad did the math wrong in SE FL. Indian river to Collier is exactly 10 districts.

Yep. And you can only go so far into Collier because the incumbent rep is in Naples. The map is going to look something like this: