This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[icc]

On the JC discourse the main reason for him not running is not wanting to put other members or even MPs in a bad position; the party would have grounds to suspend anyone who campaigned for him or supported him.

I am not expert on his seat; he would probably do relatively well on the basis of his personal vote (both as a constituency MP and his leadership vibes) but enough to get to the number needed to beat someone inoffensive?  Perhaps not, and ofc it’s much harder in a GE compared to a by election especially if the current polls are to be followed.

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

I broadly agree with your post, but George Galloway, while vile, is a far cannier and more able politician than Corbyn.

[Coldstream]

On the JC discourse the main reason for him not running is not wanting to put other members or even MPs in a bad position; the party would have grounds to suspend anyone who campaigned for him or supported him.

I am not expert on his seat; he would probably do relatively well on the basis of his personal vote (both as a constituency MP and his leadership vibes) but enough to get to the number needed to beat someone inoffensive?  Perhaps not, and ofc it’s much harder in a GE compared to a by election especially if the current polls are to be followed.

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

I broadly agree with your post, but George Galloway, while vile, is a far cannier and more able politician than Corbyn.

Eh, maybe, Corbyn makes up for his guilelessness with uncompromising fervour - which in this case may be all he needs.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

[Coldstream]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

Actually, no, Galloway doesn’t have any particular skill at choosing seats - he got max 5% of the vote in 2017/19. He got lucky twice & nearly lucky a third time in Batley - despite being almost universally despised. Corbyn, for all his faults, doesn’t suffer from the same level of antipathy - so it’s perfectly plausible he can do it if Galloway could.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

[Coldstream]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

How many have there been this century? Blaenau Gwent in 2005?

My point was, if someone as repulsive as Galloway can do it, someone less repulsive in more favourable circumstances like Corbyn is certainly can. If you don’t like the analogy take it up with the public for not electing more independents.

[icc]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

How many have there been this century? Blaenau Gwent in 2005?

My point was, if someone as repulsive as Galloway can do it, someone less repulsive in more favourable circumstances like Corbyn is certainly can. If you don’t like the analogy take it up with the public for not electing more independents.

But what you are missing is that, regardless of how well / badly Corbyn would do, Galloway is a terrible comparison. His vile-ness is irrelevant, people vote for him because of his particular, impenetrable brand of communal politics.

[Coldstream]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

How many have there been this century? Blaenau Gwent in 2005?

My point was, if someone as repulsive as Galloway can do it, someone less repulsive in more favourable circumstances like Corbyn is certainly can. If you don’t like the analogy take it up with the public for not electing more independents.

But what you are missing is that, regardless of how well / badly Corbyn would do, Galloway is a terrible comparison. His vile-ness is irrelevant, people vote for him because of his particular, impenetrable brand of communal politics.

I don’t recall saying the two are identical. I said that Galloway was able to win *without a national party backing him* that is the comparison to Corbyns situation.

Although, whilst this wasn’t my point, Corbyn & Galloway are hardly worlds apart in their appeals - and it’s more than a bit delusional to pretend there’s no comparison on that level too.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

How many have there been this century? Blaenau Gwent in 2005?

My point was, if someone as repulsive as Galloway can do it, someone less repulsive in more favourable circumstances like Corbyn is certainly can. If you don’t like the analogy take it up with the public for not electing more independents.

But what you are missing is that, regardless of how well / badly Corbyn would do, Galloway is a terrible comparison. His vile-ness is irrelevant, people vote for him because of his particular, impenetrable brand of communal politics.

I don’t recall saying the two are identical. I said that Galloway was able to win *without a national party backing him* that is the comparison to Corbyns situation.

Although, whilst this wasn’t my point, Corbyn & Galloway are hardly worlds apart in their appeals - and it’s more than a bit delusional to pretend there’s no comparison on that level too.

Are people in Islington North unusually anti-Semitic or fond of tankie foreign policy? Are they even particularly concerned with the Palestinian cause? I hadn't heard. While they may well be fond of Corbyn's record as an MP, I don't know of anything that suggests they're actually more fond of 'Corbynism', however defined, than anywhere else in inner London. They certainly seem happy to vote for perfectly ordinary Labour politicians on all other levels.

The possibly pedantic point icc and I are making is that Galloway moves from place to place looking for fault lines to exploit. He has only found relative success in places with specific demographics that are open to a communalist appeal. Whenever he's left that comfort zone, he's gone absolutely nowhere. Despite superficial similarities, that option isn't open to Corbyn. I don't think there are any seats other than Islington North that are at all likely to elect him as an independent. It's not just him, there just aren't many analogues to Galloway's career at all.

If Corbyn has a route to holding his seat as an independent, it most likely has very little to do with ideology or stoking prejudice, but just casting himself as a good representative spurned by the establishment, which is a narrative that's played well before. It's the rough path followed by, yes, Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent, but also Ken Livingstone in 1999, Dennis Canavan or (this is more debatable, since her appeal could potentially have carried her through elsewhere too) Margo MacDonald in the Scottish Parliament, Jason Zadrozny in Ashfield (he didn't win the Westminster seat in 2019, but he did very well and in the meantime he's certainly parlayed his alleged persecution into turning the council into his own personal fiefdom) or arguably Sylvia Hermon in North Down exploiting her seat's historic awkward 'unionist but not Like That' streak.

I apologise for briefly mistaking you for a defender of Corbyn, btw.

[Coldstream]

[

What, because he’s so famously a team player renown for compromise?

If he doesn’t run it’s because he doesn’t want to be an MP anymore. He will not be moved by trivialities about other peoples memberships of the Labour Party. Jeez, I don’t like the guy, but even I can see he’s got more principles than that.

I seriously question how anyone whose ever visited Islington could write off Corbyn winning as an independent, George Galloway - who is a far more toxic, unpleasant and less well known figure - did it twice without the home field advantage Corbyn has in Islington.

It’s not like a random back bench MP running as an independent after being thrown out for an ethics scandal, it’s Jeremy Corbyn, thrown out for - as the majority of his constituents will see it - taking a moral stand for the Palestinians. It is wishful thinking to dismiss his chances.

Not to comment on how personally popular Corbyn is in his seat or how bothered your average voter there is by Palestine because I honestly don't know, but you do understand that Galloway is very particular about the seats he stands in for a reason, right?

Yes, and are you seriously implying Islington North…isn’t a good fit for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm suggesting that Corbyn being a long-time incumbent in a seat that happens to be a good or even very good cultural fit is not the same thing as Galloway honing to perfection a very particular brand of demagoguery that is only even intelligible in a few places in Britain. There are enough examples in British politics of voters sticking up for a local (or as good as local) man they think has been mistreated by party machines that I don't see the value of reaching for that comparison. If anything I am being charitable to Corbyn!

How many have there been this century? Blaenau Gwent in 2005?

My point was, if someone as repulsive as Galloway can do it, someone less repulsive in more favourable circumstances like Corbyn is certainly can. If you don’t like the analogy take it up with the public for not electing more independents.

But what you are missing is that, regardless of how well / badly Corbyn would do, Galloway is a terrible comparison. His vile-ness is irrelevant, people vote for him because of his particular, impenetrable brand of communal politics.

I don’t recall saying the two are identical. I said that Galloway was able to win *without a national party backing him* that is the comparison to Corbyns situation.

Although, whilst this wasn’t my point, Corbyn & Galloway are hardly worlds apart in their appeals - and it’s more than a bit delusional to pretend there’s no comparison on that level too.

Are people in Islington North unusually anti-Semitic or fond of tankie foreign policy? Are they even particularly concerned with the Palestinian cause? I hadn't heard. While they may well be fond of Corbyn's record as an MP, I don't know of anything that suggests they're actually more fond of 'Corbynism', however defined, than anywhere else in inner London. They certainly seem happy to vote for perfectly ordinary Labour politicians on all other levels.

The possibly pedantic point icc and I are making is that Galloway moves from place to place looking for fault lines to exploit. He has only found relative success in places with specific demographics that are open to a communalist appeal. Whenever he's left that comfort zone, he's gone absolutely nowhere. Despite superficial similarities, that option isn't open to Corbyn. I don't think there are any seats other than Islington North that are at all likely to elect him as an independent. It's not just him, there just aren't many analogues to Galloway's career at all.

If Corbyn has a route to holding his seat as an independent, it most likely has very little to do with ideology or stoking prejudice, but just casting himself as a good representative spurned by the establishment, which is a narrative that's played well before. It's the rough path followed by, yes, Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent, but also Ken Livingstone in 1999, Dennis Canavan or (this is more debatable, since her appeal could potentially have carried her through elsewhere too) Margo MacDonald in the Scottish Parliament, Jason Zadrozny in Ashfield (he didn't win the Westminster seat in 2019, but he did very well and in the meantime he's certainly parlayed his alleged persecution into turning the council into his own personal fiefdom) or arguably Sylvia Hermon in North Down exploiting her seat's historic awkward 'unionist but not Like That' streak.

I apologise for briefly mistaking you for a defender of Corbyn, btw.

My experience of campaigning in Islington North is that Corbyn is a good fit for it - whether the voters are anti-semitic or tankies is more of a value judgement, but I certainly think they side with Corbyn on most major issues. As I’ve said, there’s a reason Islington is used as a slur by people on the right (and indeed the centre & left) to imply out of touch lefty politics.

I do not think, for example, that Richard Burgon, Zarah Sultana, or John McDonnell would have a prayer at winning re-election in their seats - which has probably impacted their decision not to resign in solidarity. Islington North/Corbyn is a specific case.

And if I’m wrong about Islington North, then the candidate against Corbyn shouldn’t be Sam Tarry as was proposed up-thread because it’s not what they want.

Again, my point on Galloway was *NOT* that their appeals are the same or the circumstances but that Galloway proved you can win as a de facto independent. The reason I didn’t mention, say, Richard Taylor in Kidderminster is that Corbyn & Galloway were elected MP’s thrown out of their party for principled reasons - not a localist independent - like say Zadrozny too. Although Zadrozny specifically was also thrown out of his party & part of his appeal was that Ashfield felt he’d been screwed over (but that’s a separate issue).

I speak as someone who spent half a decade resisting his influence within the Labour Party, which taught me 1. That he will not die without a fight & 2. There is a constituency for his beliefs. Writing him off is as foolish as writing off Trump in the US.

[Torrain]

There’s suddenly been a lot of noise in the Sheffield Central selection.

I believe there are four local candidates, mostly councillors (Mike Buckley, Jane Dunn, Rizwana Lala, Abtisam Mohamad), and two ‘celebrity’ candidates (Eddie Izzard, and journalist Paul Mason).

Curious if those with a better sense of THIGMOO movements have a sense of how it’ll all play out.

[CumbrianLefty]

I would be surprised if either of the "celebrity" candidates get very far.

[Torrain]

I would be surprised if either of the "celebrity" candidates get very far.

Makes sense - from what I’ve seen, local candidates seem to having a fairly good year in party selections, over SPADs and other parachuted candidates.

Just been curious whether there was any goodwill towards Mason or Izzard (who’s spent a lot of time campaigning as a member of the CLP in decent cycles - decamping with the rest of Sheffield Central during the Wakefield by-election, for example), that might cancel out that trend.

[YL]

There’s suddenly been a lot of noise in the Sheffield Central selection.

I believe there are four local candidates, mostly councillors (Mike Buckley, Jane Dunn, Rizwana Lala, Abtisam Mohamad), and two ‘celebrity’ candidates (Eddie Izzard, and journalist Paul Mason).

Curious if those with a better sense of THIGMOO movements have a sense of how it’ll all play out.

It's always going to be a high profile selection because it's a bit of a plum seat and because of Izzard's candidacy in particular.  (Though, on the plum seat thing, it's worth pointing out that Paul Blomfield only beat the Lib Dems by 165 votes in his first win in 2010, and the proposed boundary changes would certainly wipe that majority out with room to spare; if the demographics that have swung from Lib Dem to Labour since then were to swing away from Labour again they could easily be in trouble.  On current boundaries it had the highest student population in the whole UK in the 2011 census, and the boundary changes actually take out some of the least studenty bits.)

Another local candidate is Abdi Suleiman.  Only Dunn and Mohamed are councillors, and both are for wards in the neighbouring Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough constituency (though Dunn used to represent Broomhill).

The Greens, probably the least unlikely challengers, have already selected Alison Teal, who used to be a Green councillor for Nether Edge & Sharrow and made her name as a tree campaigner.  However, she also appears to have TERF tendencies, so her selection is far from universally popular in the Greens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituencies with the sort of profile the present incarnation Sheffield Central has tend to attract a lot of attention when they open up, even during periods when Labour is not doing so well in constituencies with that sort of profile. There are people who not only wish to be an MP but wish to represent a certain type of area and certain types of people.

[CumbrianLefty]

I would be surprised if either of the "celebrity" candidates get very far.

Makes sense - from what I’ve seen, local candidates seem to having a fairly good year in party selections, over SPADs and other parachuted candidates.

Just been curious whether there was any goodwill towards Mason or Izzard (who’s spent a lot of time campaigning as a member of the CLP in decent cycles - decamping with the rest of Sheffield Central during the Wakefield by-election, for example), that might cancel out that trend.

Izzard might get some support for those reasons, yes. But still hard to see them winning.

[Blair]

I am in the strange position of being too young to actually know why Eddie Izzard was famous but equally only really know of her as someone who has ran for virtually every role in THIGMOO without any real reason why.

[Blair]

Emma Dent Coad has been kept off the approved list for her old seat.

Pretty unheard of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt it will have been the reason, but she has incredibly dodgy views on the situation in Xinjiang for the usual lefty boomer reasons.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also a few rather embarrassing "foot in mouth" gaffes on various topics since her election in 2017.

The result in Kensington last time was maybe *the* most unjust of even that GE - especially given the genuinely filthy and unscrupulous LibDem campaign, which showed them at their absolute worst - but you do have to wonder if she would still hold the party whip now had she been re-elected.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think this is another case of the left sticking by somebody in the twilight of their career when they really shouldn't have done. Although to be fair, Dent Coad has never seemed like somebody humble enough to stand back and let a better candidate have a shot at it.

[icc]

Also a few rather embarrassing "foot in mouth" gaffes on various topics since her election in 2017.

The result in Kensington last time was maybe *the* most unjust of even that GE - especially given the genuinely filthy and unscrupulous LibDem campaign, which showed them at their absolute worst - but you do have to wonder if she would still hold the party whip now had she been re-elected.

Of course Dent Coad herself boasted on election night that she would have lost in a straight fight with the Tories, but she was going to hold on thanks to the Lib Dems taking more Conservative than Labour votes. Whoops.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, whatever.

Gyimah still grossly libelled her whatever way you slice it.

[LabourJersey]

There’s suddenly been a lot of noise in the Sheffield Central selection.

I believe there are four local candidates, mostly councillors (Mike Buckley, Jane Dunn, Rizwana Lala, Abtisam Mohamad), and two ‘celebrity’ candidates (Eddie Izzard, and journalist Paul Mason).

Curious if those with a better sense of THIGMOO movements have a sense of how it’ll all play out.

It's always going to be a high profile selection because it's a bit of a plum seat and because of Izzard's candidacy in particular.  (Though, on the plum seat thing, it's worth pointing out that Paul Blomfield only beat the Lib Dems by 165 votes in his first win in 2010, and the proposed boundary changes would certainly wipe that majority out with room to spare; if the demographics that have swung from Lib Dem to Labour since then were to swing away from Labour again they could easily be in trouble.  On current boundaries it had the highest student population in the whole UK in the 2011 census, and the boundary changes actually take out some of the least studenty bits.)

Another local candidate is Abdi Suleiman.  Only Dunn and Mohamed are councillors, and both are for wards in the neighbouring Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough constituency (though Dunn used to represent Broomhill).

The Greens, probably the least unlikely challengers, have already selected Alison Teal, who used to be a Green councillor for Nether Edge & Sharrow and made her name as a tree campaigner.  However, she also appears to have TERF tendencies, so her selection is far from universally popular in the Greens.

Why is it seen as a plum seat? I admittedly know very little about Sheffield but it seems odd for it to be a super desirable constituency? Does it have some kind of combination of "safe seat" and "not a lot of local problems" that would presumably be attractive for MPs?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There’s suddenly been a lot of noise in the Sheffield Central selection.

I believe there are four local candidates, mostly councillors (Mike Buckley, Jane Dunn, Rizwana Lala, Abtisam Mohamad), and two ‘celebrity’ candidates (Eddie Izzard, and journalist Paul Mason).

Curious if those with a better sense of THIGMOO movements have a sense of how it’ll all play out.

It's always going to be a high profile selection because it's a bit of a plum seat and because of Izzard's candidacy in particular.  (Though, on the plum seat thing, it's worth pointing out that Paul Blomfield only beat the Lib Dems by 165 votes in his first win in 2010, and the proposed boundary changes would certainly wipe that majority out with room to spare; if the demographics that have swung from Lib Dem to Labour since then were to swing away from Labour again they could easily be in trouble.  On current boundaries it had the highest student population in the whole UK in the 2011 census, and the boundary changes actually take out some of the least studenty bits.)

Another local candidate is Abdi Suleiman.  Only Dunn and Mohamed are councillors, and both are for wards in the neighbouring Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough constituency (though Dunn used to represent Broomhill).

The Greens, probably the least unlikely challengers, have already selected Alison Teal, who used to be a Green councillor for Nether Edge & Sharrow and made her name as a tree campaigner.  However, she also appears to have TERF tendencies, so her selection is far from universally popular in the Greens.

Why is it seen as a plum seat? I admittedly know very little about Sheffield but it seems odd for it to be a super desirable constituency? Does it have some kind of combination of "safe seat" and "not a lot of local problems" that would presumably be attractive for MPs?

It's a safe seat at the moment and has lots of students and bobos (the Greens are strong on the council level, and are always trying to translate into general election votes, without much success for now). The electorate being both more socially liberal and more transient than most seats (and therefore less likely to mind a carpetbagger, or so the thinking will probably run) will help attract some applicants.