CT Redistricting 2020

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT Dems came up 1 seat short of 2/3's majority in State Senate and 5 seats short in State House.

Think it's possible to get 1 GOP senator and 5 GOP reps to agree to pass their maps?

It might be possible if CT Ds convinced them to support Dem maps in return to giving them seats that were safer and/or to their specification.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

I managed to create an R+6 seat by working from this map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4e02fe26-15d7-4416-9fc3-3c3e1f5fb0fa

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

I managed to create an R+6 seat by working from this map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4e02fe26-15d7-4416-9fc3-3c3e1f5fb0fa

Sure, if Republicans held 2/3's majorities in both chambers they might get a map like that passed...

I wasn't saying it was a politically realistic map. I was just saying it was geographically possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
R+4 probably goes narrowly to Biden, tossup.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bc7f4fc-f544-4a61-95dd-dffcc95dacc2
here is a map that fulfills the goal of your map, without splitting any towns.
Tbh, I prefer it to the current map, since it avoids ugliness and is closer to the state's overall lean.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

Yeah, no dispute there whatsoever.
New Britain's position in the 5th is an artifact from when Nancy L. Johnson, the former Republican congresswoman (served 1985-2007) was in the district. She won New Britain almost every election, and insisted it be added in the new 5th; it voted against her in 2004 and in 2006 helped send her into retirement.

After she left the scene, New Britain now became sort of a firewall territory for Dems, helping ensure they would win any close races. In 2012 Liz Esty narrowly won over Andrew Roraback partially due to its inclusion, and in the 2010s New Britain's role has mainly been to keep the CD in the Dem column. Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep it in the 5th in 2011-2012, and they were correct to think that its inclusion in CT-05 would be critical.

I don't see them changing their thinking much in this department. New Britain, despite its popular GOP mayor and GOP control of the organs of local govt there, still gives Dem outsize margins on federal level. In 2020, New Britain gave Biden a more than 2-to-1 raw margin, and over 8,000 vote plurality, out of slightly over 25k votes cast. The arm to New Britain started off an incumbent dummymander, and now is a simple partisan gerrymander.
The environment changes, and the parties, but the lines remain the same, for differing reasons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

anyone tried making state legislature maps? I made a state senate map.
The intent is an R-leaning, compactness-driven quasi-neutral map (as evidenced by the creation of D vote sinks out of big towns, the pairing of East Hartford and Manchester, and other things)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7865f623-97bf-4068-ad71-d8eed0df811a
I tried State House but it's an utter pain. Districts that are small+large precincts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could Democrats do what Republicans did in Missouri to pass a gerrymander. Like give a republican incumbent a safer district

There are no report republicans in the Congressional delegation to protect.

could do legislative GOP incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We already have a thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We already have a thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0

Ah, couldn't find it on the atlas search page.

Stuff like this is why we have the Master thread that's pinned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT House districts that can be nested in the given municipality(ies) under 2020 census data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[image]
CT House districts that can be nested in the given municipality(ies) under 2020 census data.

Miscolored two groupings.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT house of reps map.
76 Lamont districts, 129 Biden districts.
Here's the map itself
here is the base map which I used to draw it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shocked, shocked, I tell you! Who could have foreseen this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Democratic and Republican maps may as well be Tweedledee and Tweedledum.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1483522935289745411?s=20

Meet the new map, same as the old map.