Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Holmes]

Yeah Strange will win. Will be interesting to see if Democrats put up a fight here because they can run against Bentley and maybe make some progress. What's left be interesting is the margin.

[Holmes]

Lol Jones is not going to win this probably helps Moore in Alabama as disgusting as that is

Hope Strange pulls off a miracle in the runoff I guess

Come on. I know Alabama is a right-wing state but I wouldn't say this would help him.

[Holmes]

I hope the DSCC does totally write this race off. If turnout is low like it was during the first round, it could help Jones pull an upset. Scott Brown all over again.

Scott Brown was elected in a relatively high turnout election.

Warren beat him in a higher turnout election.

[Holmes]

He's an idiot but he'll win the primary.

Hopefully he debates Jones in the general.

[Holmes]

I mean the last poll was Gravis, and well... I mean it's Gravis so.

Yup. I still believe Moore will win. He hasn't really helped himself these past few weeks but I think that's damaged him in the general more so than the primary.

[Holmes]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/undisclosed-deal-guaranteed-roy-moore-180000-a-year-for-part-time-work-at-charity/2017/10/11/5f56679e-a9de-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_foundation-1210pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.67bc93d73731

Oops.

[Holmes]

Yikes

[Holmes]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This would be a mess because if Moore withdraws, gets "replaced", and Moore gets the most votes, would it be legal for the replacement to take the seat? There's no way of knowing voter intent because they technically voted for Moore, not the replacement.

[Holmes]

The difference from Alaska 2010 is that Dems have a much higher floor in Alabama than Alaska, and the Democratic candidate isn't a total loser. A Strange write-in campaign would hurt Republicans.

[Holmes]

Yeah, Strange has the distinction of also being horrible and hated by voters that he wouldn't peel off any Democratic votes, but the more moderate/rational Republican voters could be persuaded to write him in instead. Jones can win with 45%.

[Holmes]

Hannity is a hero in Alabama. Don't take him lightly.

Yes, in Alabama, they revere big necks (it's a sign of manliness) and Hannity has the biggest neck of all. It's even larger than his head.

[Holmes]

New Gravis poll out soon.

I think this is winnable now for Jones.

Gravis actually didn't do bad in Virginia.

But it's still Gravis though.

[Holmes]

I think that Alabama would elect a socially conservative, economically populist Democrat.  Tax those latte-sipping elites in Manhattan and Hollywood to death, redistribute the money back to my family so my kids can get better health care.

There needs to be a Democratic wing that appeals to Southern whites - you can reframe it all.  I would advise all Democratic candidates in the South to really run faith-based campaigns and talk about issues within an evangelical framework.  For example, Creation Care for environmental protection.

It's a very hard sell, but there were Democrats in the olden days in the South that were not completely bought by special interests.  They were more populist and pro-consumer, pro-worker.  They were able to win and hold onto seats but they were traditionalists.  A lot of them were also segregationists.

Sometimes a party needs to give up some things to get a little of what it wants.  An Alabama Democratic senator will have to vote against abortion all of the time and even be very vocal about being pro-life.  There are cultural positions to take- for example, supporting Christian symbols on public property.  I don't see why there should be any fuss about having Biblical passages or the Ten Commandments in a state house or a courthouse.  Just let it go.

Make the fuss when there's a tax bill that's deliberately written for the wealthy.  Very few people in rural Alabama are represented by that bill.  It's a bill that will help Beverly Hills and the Upper East Side, not Alabama.

Assuming Jones wins, I think it's very unlikely he'll be reelected as long as his opponent is a generic Republican and not someone like Moore. Jones is very pro-choice by the way.

Probably, even if 2020 is a big Democratic year that takes Trump down, but Alabama Republicans can sh**t the bed again by having a nasty primary and endorsing the worst candidate.

[Holmes]

OK, take a look at today's front page of the Florence (AL) Times Daily: http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/?tfp_display=gallery&tfp_region=USA&tfp_sort_by=state&tfp_id=AL_TD

"Party divided over sex clams"

Not to mention the poll on the side asking if Moore should "redraw" from the race...

...and the headline about the guy who had cocaine fall out of his hat while in court on a drug charge.

It's peak Alabama.

[Holmes]

Greedo, when you're older, you'll learn about why people do the things they do and why men in power are the most dangerous things ever.

[Holmes]

The Republican leadership are such pantywaists. They turn into week kneed jello at the first sign of trouble.  The Democrat leadership usually stands and fights.

Interesting. This is, of course, incorrect, but it's interesting to see how other people think. You are right about Republican leadership being "pantywaists" though.

[Holmes]

I never even voted for Ted Kennedy, but ok.

[Holmes]

I might not be so adamant about not letting this seat go to a Democrat, if the Democrats were not trying to disrupt the nomination process across the board.  

I can understand the attempt to slow down the judicial nominations.  But I want them to be approved.  So, I do not want to give you another weapon.

[Holmes]

Yikes

[Holmes]

Wait so can someone explain the mechanism by which Jeff Sessions becomes Senator again (as the rumors are saying)?

1. Moore withdraws candidacy.
2. Jones wins on a technicality.
3. ???
4. Jefferson Beauregard Sessions the 3rd!

[Holmes]

No one should really be surprised by EnglishPete here. He defends most Republicans like this. The highest burden of proof is required for Republicans, while minimal proof required for everyone else. This is a story he was never going to believe unless Moore was caught loving on kids on video tape, 100% visible, and even then I still suspect he'd find ways to nitpick. The only thing that never ceases to amaze me about him is how oblivious to his own behavior he is. From his perspective, everything seems logical, straightforward and quite dumbfounding to him how no one else sees it the way he does.

Factoring in his deep distrust of the media and any other organizations or people that attempt to fact check conservatives, he is a very good example of the wave of paranoia that has infected conservatives over the past decade or two. They can't possibly be wrong, or possibly pick the worst candidates, no, everything is a conspiracy against them


-

Anyway, let's please try not to derail this thread. As a veteran of previous EnglishPete derailments, I won't hesitate to forcefully move this thread back on track.

I don't disagree with anything you say about him but it's kinda crappy that you go on a rant about EnglishPete and then just say "ok no one talk about it anymore!" Either you do or you don't but you don't do and then use your authority as a mod to shut down discussion.

[Holmes]

What needs to happen is that Luther Strange must immediately resign. A new senator would be appointed to fill his seat, and a new special election would be called. Unfortunately, it's too late to take Moore off the ballot at this point. Strange gives no indication that he'd do this, but it would be the right thing not only for the GOP but for America. If he doesn't, the best thing that can happen from a republican perspective is Moore winning then being forced to resign, which would also lead to another special election.

No, a special would not be called. This election is to fill the remainder of Sessions', who was originally elected, term, not Strange's.

[Holmes]

Did Schock ever come out?