NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Birdish]

Politico loves its Dems-in-Dissaray articles.

[Birdish]

It's hard to imagine Republican's gaining either house unless democrat turnout absolutely crashes from prior years.

2021 was an almost perfect year for Republicans with high Republican turnout and they didn't come particular close to flipping either house. Republican's have been hammering on culture war issues but it feels like NJ would be a state where that type of thing doesn't play all that well. On the flip side, NJ probably has the NY problem where dem leaning voters arent worried about abortion rights being taken away, so the issue doesn't boost turn out.

[Birdish]

Im more interested in Unaffilated voters. We didnt get exit polls from 2021, but its not hard to guess that those voters were a reason Murphy almost lost. Seems like their ballot return rate has dropped off more than Dems or Reps.

[Birdish]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

[Birdish]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

They were one of the few that overestimated Murphy in 2021 (as opposed to just underestimating Ciattarelli), though not outside their margin for error.

I'm not saying they have a bias, just that their numbers can be very random at times. I'd have much preferred Monmouth do a poll this go around. Although we still might get something from them.

[Birdish]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

We saw in the recent Monmouth poll that even a large majority of democrats supported schools contacting them if their children came out as trans.

I'm skeptical it actually having a major effect on the race one way or another like Dan Cassino is suggesting though.

"Whenever I have effects this big, I double check and bring in an outside analyst it to confirm."

[Birdish]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

[Birdish]

It will be fun watching Van Drew(or any republican) run on anti-Wind in the upcoming governor's race after reading his released statement. That plays really well on the shore, but even with Republican opposition, Wind Energy is still relatively popular in the state. The dead whales bit isn't going to fly among suburban swing voters who believe in climate change.

[Birdish]

If you dig in, the crosstabs look far too favorable to Democrats across the board for the generic ballot poll. It could be something like 52-48 like it was in 2021.

That’s just kind of how NJ polling works; undecideds historically break something like 80-20 for Republicans and the Democratic numbers wind up being spot on.

Yep. Kind of goes hand in hand with how Democrats have a low ceiling while Republicans have a high floor.

[Birdish]

I'm just gonna sit here and pretend to know what any of this early data means.

[Birdish]

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

[Birdish]

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

LD-38 I should add. This is the district directly next to mine. Don't think I've seen any Lagana signs 🤔

[Birdish]

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

This is my district, there's always a red mirage. If it couldn't flip in 2021, I find it unlikely to happen this year. There's much more vote to count though. It's taking forever.

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

LD-38 I should add. This is the district directly next to mine. Don't think I've seen any Lagana signs 🤔

I've seen several, though not as many as GOP signs. The LD-38 ticket has swept the airwaves and mailer game though.

Thank you for the context. And for what it's worth, multiple people on Twitter are saying result websites are far behind here and Lagana has a healthy lead on the SoS's website. Guess my surprise was premature.

[Birdish]

So final tally is looking like:

D+4 in the assembly.

No change in the state senate.

Go figure.

[Birdish]

So final tally is looking like:

D+4 in the assembly.

No change in the state senate.

Go figure.

Is that no change counting that guy who switched parties in that Safe R seat and retired or counting him as a Republican that he was elected as?

Democrats lost that seat and won back NJ-3. So it remains 25-15 Democrat.

[Birdish]

Is this guy who won the Lakewood Assembly seat an actual Democrat or is he a Simcha Felder-like DINO?

The latter.

The comparison I read was like how the NY assembly has democrat orthodox representatives. It's not because they're actually democrats, but it make it so your community atleast has a seat at the table.

[Birdish]

Saw on Twitter AP just withdrew its call for LD-8.

[Birdish]

These results really make one question what the heck happened in 2021.