NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned: 391,595
Dem: 254,597 (65.0%)
Rep: 82,032 (20.9%)
= D+44.1

Early in-person voting: 82,755
Dem: 37,416 (45.2%)
Rep: 29,380 (35.5%)
= D+9.7

Total EV: 474,350
Dem: 292,013 (61.6%)
Rep: 111,412 (23.5%)
= D+38.1

[Senator Incitatus]

Huge mail advantages in some of these districts, though they’re also the ones with “ancestral Democrats.”

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 924,949
Dem: 526,947 (57.0%)
Rep: 171,662 (18.6%)
= D+39.4

Total ballots returned: 401,760
Dem: 261,049 (65.0%)
Rep: 83,720 (20.8%)
= D+44.2

Dem return rate: 49.5%
Rep return rate: 48.8%

Early in-person voting: 100,283
Dem: 45,571 (45.4%)
Rep: 34,805 (34.7%)
= D+10.7

Total EV: 502,043
Dem: 306,620 (61.1%)
Rep: 118,525 (23.6%)
= D+37.5

Dems get a boost from Saturday's early vote, and I assume they'll likely see one more final boost from Sundays.

[wbrocks67]

2 days to election:
2021: 580K; 60.7% D, 22.9% R — D+37.8
2022: 644K; 60.0% D, 22.5% R — D+37.5
2023: 502K; 61.1% D, 23.6% R — D+37.5

Given the lack of statewide/major high profile races, I'd say turnout is actually pretty solid. Still scary just how much the EV is the same, so I assume we're looking at 2021/2022 style reduxes.

[kwabbit]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

[wbrocks67]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

Given the EV and how it looks compared to the past, and how there's still pretty minimal Indy-involvement, the latter seems much more unlikely vs the former.

[kwabbit]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

Given the EV and how it looks compared to the past, and how there's still pretty minimal Indy-involvement, the latter seems much more unlikely vs the former.

I agree, but there is an ancestral Dem registration factor in South Jersey where it's closer than the EV indicates. The winds are blowing so strongly in the GOP's favor that even Norcross obsessing over Durr might not be enough. Ciattarelli won that district by 16 points and that's a lot to make up.

Do you have EV data for South Jersey in 2021? That might give a better clue about where things are heading.

[ralstonfan65]

The independent vote splits will matter in the marginal districts (plus Dem defections to the GOP) and the national environment being so unfavorable to Biden leads me to suspect that GOP will over perform here and flip a couple of unexpected seats.

[wbrocks67]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

Given the EV and how it looks compared to the past, and how there's still pretty minimal Indy-involvement, the latter seems much more unlikely vs the former.

I agree, but there is an ancestral Dem registration factor in South Jersey where it's closer than the EV indicates. The winds are blowing so strongly in the GOP's favor that even Norcross obsessing over Durr might not be enough. Ciattarelli won that district by 16 points and that's a lot to make up.

Do you have EV data for South Jersey in 2021? That might give a better clue about where things are heading.

I'll have to try and dig to see if the guy on Twitter posted it back then - I tried to compare to 2022 but you could only do by county, since they didn't break it down by district. I believe someone posted historical data on Twitter, but can't remember if I saved it

[wbrocks67]

VBM: 406,812
Dems: 264,299 (65.0%)
Rep: 84,470 (20.8%)
= D+44.2

In-Person: 123,713
Dem: 55,790 (45.1%)
Rep: 42,360 (34.2%)
= D+10.9

Total EV: 530,525
Dem: 320,089 (60.3%)
Rep: 126,830 (23.9%)
= D+36.4

In-person ended at D+11, closer to 2021 (D+12) than 2022 (D+17)

Mail ended up D+44 in 2022, so the exact same this year.

[wbrocks67]

1 day to election:
2021: 622k; D 59.9%, R 23.2% — D+36.7
2022: 658k; D 59.9%, R 22.4% — D+37.5
2023: 531k; D 60.3%, R 23.9% — D+36.4

[oldtimer]

VBM: 406,812
Dems: 264,299 (65.0%)
Rep: 84,470 (20.8%)
= D+44.2

In-Person: 123,713
Dem: 55,790 (45.1%)
Rep: 42,360 (34.2%)
= D+10.9

Total EV: 530,525
Dem: 320,089 (60.3%)
Rep: 126,830 (23.9%)
= D+36.4

In-person ended at D+11, closer to 2021 (D+12) than 2022 (D+17)

Mail ended up D+44 in 2022, so the exact same this year.

I could see the early vote not being that fresh for Democrats many days ago.
The question is of course the election day vote itself.

[Ferguson97]

This doesn't only apply to the New Jersey elections, but I think people shouldn't put too much stock in mail-in ballot numbers now that we're 2 years out from the pandemic.

[wbrocks67]

This doesn't only apply to the New Jersey elections, but I think people shouldn't put too much stock in mail-in ballot numbers now that we're 2 years out from the pandemic.

I think it depends on the state, though. Stuff like return rates can show enthusiasm or lack thereof. But, of course we'll see. 2021 and 2022 seemed to produce basically the same results, so makes me think that since it looks nearly identical to those years, we're probably on track for another typical election, but again, we'll see!

[Senator Incitatus]

I've run some very basic numbers on 2021 early voting in swing districts, and they tell us absolutely nothing interesting.

It Will Come Down to Turnout, but even so, I don't expect anything crazy to happen. The playing field seems pretty narrow based on early voting. 3 and 11 are pretty much the only districts that seem to be seriously in play, though I expect Republicans to win the independents by Ciattarelli margins.

[wbrocks67]

I've run some very basic numbers on 2021 early voting in swing districts, and they tell us absolutely nothing interesting.

It Will Come Down to Turnout, but even so, I don't expect anything crazy to happen. The playing field seems pretty narrow based on early voting. 3 and 11 are pretty much the only districts that seem to be seriously in play, though I expect Republicans to win the independents by Ciattarelli margins.

What's your final prediction for Durr? I'm still convinced he wins - his 2021 win was a very small margin, he clearly is pretty controversial, the spending disparity is massive too. The only thing that may save him are trends, but it still seems like a tall lift since he seems to have no structural support at all.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.insidernj.com/r-e-poll-whats-most-important-to-new-jersey-voters-on-election-day/

Per the final Rutgers poll, the issues voters care most about are the economy, cost of living and taxes. Democrats care a lot about abortion and Republicans care a lot about parental rights in education, while independents are evenly split on both of those.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.insidernj.com/r-e-poll-whats-most-important-to-new-jersey-voters-on-election-day/

Per the final Rutgers poll, the issues voters care most about are the economy, cost of living and taxes. Democrats care a lot about abortion and Republicans care a lot about parental rights in education, while independents are evenly split on both of those.

Huh, would've expected the "parental rights" stuff to gain more traction since that seems like its been the GOP's main culture war wedge issue. Abortion being at 59% very important to parental rights 47% seems of note.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.insidernj.com/r-e-poll-whats-most-important-to-new-jersey-voters-on-election-day/

Per the final Rutgers poll, the issues voters care most about are the economy, cost of living and taxes. Democrats care a lot about abortion and Republicans care a lot about parental rights in education, while independents are evenly split on both of those.

I think he holds on. His VBM deficit is probably exaggerated by “ancestral” registration and more attention on the race accounts for the increased turnout so far, which should carry to the Republican side today.

https://www.insidernj.com/r-e-poll-whats-most-important-to-new-jersey-voters-on-election-day/

Per the final Rutgers poll, the issues voters care most about are the economy, cost of living and taxes. Democrats care a lot about abortion and Republicans care a lot about parental rights in education, while independents are evenly split on both of those.

Huh, would've expected the "parental rights" stuff to gain more traction since that seems like its been the GOP's main culture war wedge issue. Abortion being at 59% very important to parental rights 47% seems of note.

What are the breakdowns of those who find it very important, though? I’d imagine a lot of anti-abortion voters (though fewer than their opposite number) find abortion very important, but those emphasizing parental rights are probably close to unanimously with the Republicans on that issue. The Democratic position is that it’s hysteria, not that it’s very important to oppose the Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Abortion
59% overall ‘major factor’
79% among Ds, 51% among Is, 38% among Rs

Parental involvement in education
47% overall ‘major factor’
37% among Ds, 46% among Is, 70% among Rs

So looks like mirror opposites a bit, esp since there is more Ds in the state. However abortion is a bit stronger for Ds than Parental rights for Rs, and abortion has a minor edge among Indies.

[Senator Incitatus]

Abortion
59% overall ‘major factor’
79% among Ds, 51% among Is, 38% among Rs

Parental involvement in education
47% overall ‘major factor’
37% among Ds, 46% among Is, 70% among Rs

So looks like mirror opposites a bit, esp since there is more Ds in the state. However abortion is a bit stronger for Ds than Parental rights for Rs, and abortion has a minor edge among Indies.

Not quite what I was asking. The question is how those who find the issue important actually feel about it. I dug through the release and it says that abortion splits 46-21 in favor of proponents while the parental notification issue splits 38-17 the “other” way.

But it doesn’t narrow that to just those motivated by the respective issues. It’s my educated guess that the opposition to parental rights is softer than opposition to abortion. (Support may be softer too, but I’m guessing by a smaller margin.) But without a breakdown, all we have is assumption.

Best to just stick to the headline, which is a solid D lead hovering around 50%.

[wbrocks67]

The total vote for 2019's assembly election was D+21, while 2022 was D+4. I'd be very surprised if it's closer to 2019 than 2021, but we'll see.

[Roll Roons]

Abortion
59% overall ‘major factor’
79% among Ds, 51% among Is, 38% among Rs

Parental involvement in education
47% overall ‘major factor’
37% among Ds, 46% among Is, 70% among Rs

So looks like mirror opposites a bit, esp since there is more Ds in the state. However abortion is a bit stronger for Ds than Parental rights for Rs, and abortion has a minor edge among Indies.

Not quite what I was asking. The question is how those who find the issue important actually feel about it. I dug through the release and it says that abortion splits 46-21 in favor of proponents while the parental notification issue splits 38-17 the “other” way.

But it doesn’t narrow that to just those motivated by the respective issues. It’s my educated guess that the opposition to parental rights is softer than opposition to abortion. (Support may be softer too, but I’m guessing by a smaller margin.) But without a breakdown, all we have is assumption.

Best to just stick to the headline, which is a solid D lead hovering around 50%.

If you dig in, the crosstabs look far too favorable to Democrats across the board for the generic ballot poll. It could be something like 52-48 like it was in 2021.

[Senator Incitatus]

If you dig in, the crosstabs look far too favorable to Democrats across the board for the generic ballot poll. It could be something like 52-48 like it was in 2021.

That’s just kind of how NJ polling works; undecideds historically break something like 80-20 for Republicans and the Democratic numbers wind up being spot on.

[Birdish]

If you dig in, the crosstabs look far too favorable to Democrats across the board for the generic ballot poll. It could be something like 52-48 like it was in 2021.

That’s just kind of how NJ polling works; undecideds historically break something like 80-20 for Republicans and the Democratic numbers wind up being spot on.

Yep. Kind of goes hand in hand with how Democrats have a low ceiling while Republicans have a high floor.