Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Despite my preferences I suspect Castillo will pull in out in a squeaker.

Agreed! It's unclear to me why many on the forum are freaking out about polls showing a tight race when polls failed to measure Castillo's support in the 1st round. This is a classic problem, where remote, impoverished highland communities are hard to poll. Kind of similar to Bolivia in 2020!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'd argue that it's much easier for people to support Castillo than Fujimori. Anyone who is indigenous and lives in the highlands will have little reservation about voting for him but just about everyone in Lima will have massive reservations about voting for Fujimori, who is a convicted criminal, even if they'll ultimately do it to "stop communism". In these conditions, I'd expect turnout to be lower than expected in Lima vs. the highlands or for there to be lots of spoiled ballots in Lima but less in the highlands.

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

No offense but I don't think you understand anything about Peru or Latin America more generally. As Arequipa is Peru's 2nd largest city, it's filled with plenty of non-indigenous, middle class people who are wary of Castillo. It's the sort of city where even relatively affluent places feature indigenous people and where the slums are extensions of the highlands but it's still an urban environment where an anti-socialist/anti-indigenous candidate can expect a decent floor of support. This is evidenced by the fact that there's a section of the city where Hernando de Soto received over 30% of the vote!

Maybe the convoy intentionally went through some poor parts of the city, I cannot speak on that, but you'd absolutely expect Fujimori to actively campaign in Arequipa for reasons that aren't underhanded.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

From wikipedia:

Arequipa, unlike other big Peruvian cities with mestizo and indigenous features, has been labeled as a "Spanish island in an indigenous sea" and because of its status as a "natural oasis."

Of course, this characterization is almost certainly dated, as Arequipa's population has exploded in recent years, presumably due to inflows from indigenous people, but the notion that it's the equivalent of Vallecas is pretty absurd. If Fujimori wanted to instigate something like this, she'd send a convoy through some remote villages or, perhaps, through Cusco...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Peruvian expat vote is more interesting than you'd think it would be. It seems Mendoza's strongest performances were among expats in Europe, scoring nearly 30% of the vote in many countries there.

It's worth mentioning Castillo isn't performing very differently from Humala in 2011. Since the expat vote is probably very volatile, it's hard to take much signal from this but it does seem to indicate that Castillo likely won't do much worse than Humala among well-educated middle class voters. Considering that Keiko has lost much of her rural support, that doesn't seem like a good sign for her but we'll see...

Edit: I might as well add an obligatory "stop trying to draw parallels between countries that illustrate nothing about Peru". Why would the voting patterns of Frenchmen in Israel reveal anything about Peruvian voting patterns?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

No offense but I don't think you understand anything about Peru or Latin America more generally. As Arequipa is Peru's 2nd largest city, it's filled with plenty of non-indigenous, middle class people who are wary of Castillo. It's the sort of city where even relatively affluent places feature indigenous people and where the slums are extensions of the highlands but it's still an urban environment where an anti-socialist/anti-indigenous candidate can expect a decent floor of support. This is evidenced by the fact that there's a section of the city where Hernando de Soto received over 30% of the vote!

Maybe the convoy intentionally went through some poor parts of the city, I cannot speak on that, but you'd absolutely expect Fujimori to actively campaign in Arequipa for reasons that aren't underhanded.

Actually, this will probably help Fujimori: she went to Arequipa to participate in a debate with Castillo and to take a public oath to preserve democracy, respect press freedom, defend the constitution and fight corruption in a ceremony attended by one of her former staunchest critic, Álvaro Vargas Llosa (a journalist and the son of Mario who himself spoke at the ceremony via video link) as well as Venezuelan opponent Leopoldo López. In the ceremony, Fujimori acknowledged ‘the mistakes made’ by her party and apologized to Peruvians who have ‘felt affected or disappointed’ by her actions; the fact she couldn’t help but called ‘unfair’ her imprisonment during which she pretended to had have her epiphany tells you just what you need to know about the sincerity of her apologies and her commitment to democratic institutions and justice.

But her motorcade being attacked by garbage and also allegedly stones by presumed sympathizers of Castillo (be it the result of a ‘provocation’ from Fujimori or not) in the days following the physical aggression of two TV journalists at a meeting of Castillo and the deadly attack from a Shining Path dissident group, gave her an excellent opportunity to posture as a victim, to denounce violence from Castillo followers and the threat to freedoms embodied by the ‘communist’ Perú Libre candidate. After the incident, she informed Castillo she hadn’t came for ‘a debate with stones’ but for ‘a debate about proposals with the respect every Peruvian is deserving’.

This is particularly laughable coming for Fujimori, the unapologetic defender of the murderous regime of her father, but this could help her attracted the votes of undecided voters or convince voters initially leaning towards Castillo to cast a null/blank vote.

Note that Castillo has made little efforts to dispel the impression he is no better than Fujimori on human rights and democracy with stuff like blaming feminicide (138 women murdered and 5,500 missing in 2020) on ‘the idleness generated by the state, the unemployment, the delinquency’ in a recent discourse or the renewed xenophobic promise to expel all foreign delinquents (read Venezuelan migrants; there are some 1.2 million ones in Peru) within the first 72 hours in office (providing the occasion to Fujimorists to hypocritically pose as the humanitarian ones). Not to mention nobody knows which role will play Vladimir Cerrón, the owner of Perú Libre, a particularly unsavory figure who called Maduro regime a ‘democratic government’ in 2019 after an official trip to Caracas, had to apologize the same year for a tweet in which he was promising to confront the ‘Jewish Peruvian powers’, is charged in various corruption cases and is accused of having when a governor of Junín incited his followers to harass journalists and bomb the seat of a local newspaper publishing articles on his alleged corruption.

As for Castillo’s economic proposals, it seems that nobody is able to tell what a Castillo administration will actually look like, his platform having constantly changed with constant reshuffling and infighting in his campaign team (one prominent economic adviser left after few days to protest interference from Cerrón on anticorruption matters), being full of vague, unclear or unrealistic proposals, still sufficient to draw unfavorable comparisons with the massive trainwreck that was the first Alan García administration. In the last days of the campaign, one adviser of the Castillo team (even if the Castillo campaign is now denying he was actually an adviser) was caught on television during a presentation of the candidate’s agenda calling one of the proposals ‘pure bribery’ and saying he was considering casting a null vote.

Very interesting! This doesn't contradict my overall point in that this was clearly a well-planned event designed to appeal to people in Arequipa using a powerful surrogate who is from Arequipa (Vargos Llosa) but I wasn't aware of this context. I just figured that Arequipa is the sort of place that Keiko would have to take seriously, as it's a city where she's loathed but that has a significant right-wing vote. In 2011, she performed miserably in the city, as she did this time, but managed to get lots of PPK voters to back her, in spite of Vargos Llosa's Humala endorsement.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

If anything, it's fascinating that so many Japanese Peruvians voted for Castillo!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

OPNE quick count shows Fujimori with nearly 53% of the vote - very cool, Peru is going to die now lol.

Edit: as it turns out, the Ipsos is a quick count and these are just initial results which are extremely biased.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Folks, this election isn't actually that similar to 2011! I've been saying this:
Puno in 2011 - Humala 78%, Keiko 22%
Huancavelica in 2011 - Humala 72%, Keiko 28%

Worth mentioning that results in both places likely understate Castillo's support.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Do Indigenous voters go heavily for left?  I know Puno having been there is overwhelmingly indigenous while is Fujimoro more popular amongst Whites and Mestizos? 

To my knowledge, while indigenous voters have tended to back the left rather heavily over the past decade, this kind of consolidation is pretty unprecedented.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Latin Americans who live abroad are not an homogenous group. There are poor people who look for a better life, rich people who don't want to live surounded by poverty anymore, people who go to a developed country in order to study.
But most of the Latin Americans who live in the US usually vote for the right, no matter if he/she is a waiter or a businessperson.
In other countries, the vote is more split.

Not true in the case of Mexicans in the US, who have always voted for the left, but their status in the US is rather similar to Bolivians in Argentina.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Japan and Italy could get 90% Keiko based on the early reports, right? Spain 85%. France is the outlier, with 60%. But I’m not sure about those numbers. I’m going based on the results seen too (Portugal could be similar to Spain, France to Germany, etc)

Keiko could have more than the necessary to win. Especially if US gets behind her like Mexico and Canada did (both 75%).

No, there is absolutely no reason to believe that Italy or Spain will give Keiko that level of support. In 2011, Italy gave Humala 37% of the vote and Spain gave Humala 35% of the vote. Thus far, results in Europe have basically matched 2011.

Less than 100 people will vote in Portugal or something like that so it doesn't matter. France should give Castillo around 40%.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

Trying to limit this as much as possible to avoid spamming up the thread: you said "dwarfs". 100k does not really "dwarf" 76k and, in any case, it is strange to me to separate New Jersey from New York.

I was more commenting on the strange assumption propagated in this thread that Peruvians = Miami and that Peruvians in the US are all rich expats with extreme right-wing views. This isn't remotely true. Miami is just one destination among many for Peruvians, Peruvians are very working class and they aren't that engaged with Peruvian politics (see: sub-30% turnout in NJ). Overall, this assumption being propagated has mostly served to misinform lots of people about the character of Peruvian-Americans.