NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Frenchrepublican]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

[Frenchrepublican]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

North Carolina has a lot of Dixiecrats, news at 11.

In fact, as of today, North Carolina's overall Party ID is 38% D, 32% I, 30% R, despite voting Republican for president in both 2012 and 2016.

Your numbers are for party registration, when you look at party identification (which party do you identify with ?) democrats and republicans are tied.

[Frenchrepublican]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

Toomey and Burr were never polling this badly.

In fact, Toomey and Burr were both up bigly in September 2015

PPP did a poll in September 2015, they gave Burr a 29/40 approval rate. You should verify your facts before writing here

[Frenchrepublican]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

Toomey and Burr were never polling this badly.

In fact, Toomey and Burr were both up bigly in September 2015

PPP did a poll in September 2015, they gave Burr a 29/40 approval rate. You should verify your facts before writing here

No, he’s right. Polling at this point in 2015 never showed Burr consistently trailing any Democratic challenger, and the NC Senate race wasn’t even considered seriously competitive in September 2015. Any way you cut it, Tillis is in a worse position than Burr.

He is not. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_93015.pdf
At the same time in 2015 Burr had a 29/40 negative approval.

[Frenchrepublican]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Lol, Elissa Slotkin raised more money and she is not running a statewide campaign, Cunningham and Greenfield seem to be pretty weak candidates, at least until now.

[Frenchrepublican]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Lol, Elissa Slotkin raised more money and she is not running a statewide campaign, Cunningham and Greenfield seem to be pretty weak candidates, at least until now.

I don't think Cunningham is a "great" candidate or anything, but he's fine.  2020 will be a referendum on Trump specifically and Republicans more generally, so turnout will be high no matter what Cunningham does right now--he might as well spend his time gathering resources for a campaign blitz closer to election day.  Which is over a year away, by the way.  There's plenty of time for rallies and public appearances.  And on the money end, Tillis at last reporting, only had $4.4 million cash on hand, a huge chunk of which he's having to spend fighting off a primary challenge.  Cunningham is in the enviable position of being able to sit back and watch Tillis shell out millions to tie himself more closely to Trump--he's doing Democrats' work for them.  And I expect Cunningham's fundraising to only improve now that the Democratic field is settled.  I'll be very surprised if he hasn't raised at least $15 million by election day.

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

[Frenchrepublican]

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

Trump didn't even get 50 percent of the vote and was running against the machine. Now he is the machine and will have the stain of impeachment on him, turnout will be higher, and densely populated suburbs are rejecting him. He is toxic to a significant portion of the electorate and the state is a toss-up.

1. So by your own standards, we should consider MN as Tossup because Clinton won only a plurality of the vote.

2. A high turnout doesn’t necessarily help democrats.

3. You should look at a NC counties map, you would see that there are numerous relatively large counties which are very hostile to democrats.

4. He is very popular among a equally large part of the electorate.

5.  NC is lean R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

All states don't vote in lockstep.... like... yall always try to compare what one state is going to do based off of another. LOL

Care to explain your point ?

Two reasons why NC is far more likely to flip than AZ
1. Trump will likely do better in NC than in AZ
2. Kelly is a far, far better candidate than Cunningham or Smith who have no appeal with center right voters