NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Zaybay]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

[Zaybay]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

Sample is Trump+3. Pretty sure thats more representative than party registration(WV, KY and LA still have more D registered voters, and CO, NH, and NV still have more R registered).

[Zaybay]

According to a new poll, Tillis's approval rating among all adults is 23/33, 25/36 among registered voters, and 27/40 among 2018 voters. Really surprises me that so many North Carolinians have no opinion of their junior Senator.

More to the point, this serves as strong evidence that Tillis is in big trouble. A good poll for Democrats.

Source?

[Zaybay]

Seems to continue the story of the unfortunate and unpopular Tillis who almost 1/2 the state dont know. Unless he can get people to know him, and know him positively, he will probably be one of the first couple pickups for Dems after the obvious CO.

[Zaybay]

Is it fair to call this Tilt D?

No, because its too early and we dont know either the candidate he will face, nor the environment 2020 will be held in.
Tossup is appropriate.

[Zaybay]

It's baffling we have a stronger field running for Lt. Gov than Senate. Hopefully this ends up like WI-GOV and we end up with a ton of candidates actually running.

The Democratic recruitment failure this cycle is laughable. I read a Politico article not too long ago about Schumer's plan to become Majority Leader, but all of the recruitments, except AZ and probably GA are falling apart. In AZ, the long primary will lead to a divided party, the Democrats should wait until 2022 for the Senate, they should get it back in a Trump second midterm, but who knows, if their recruitment is like this cycle.

It’s March of 2019

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

[Zaybay]

If Jackson does make the plunge, this race moves automatically to tossup. He’s practically the best candidate Dems could hope for.

[Zaybay]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

Yeah getting to 49 is the easier part and then they crash into a brick wall where they need one of MT/TX/GA/ME/IA where those are all at least Lean R as of now. Dems probably need A-list challengers in each of these states to have a good shot of winning

There is a flipside to this, however. If the Ds can get a good national environment, or get some A tier candidates or Dark Swan events in these seats(Collins chooses to retire), then the Ds can gain a rather sizable amount of seats.

[Zaybay]

Schumer is a joke.

On the other hand, Cunningham is doing just fine in the polls and he's finally starting to rake in the big bucks. The same can be said for Gideon and Greenfield. Just because you don't like a strategy doesn't mean it won't work.

Greenfield is neither doing fine in the polls nor raking in the big bucks.

[Zaybay]

In 2019, the senate looked like a steep uphill battle. At the dawn of 2020, the path became clear, though narrow. Now, the senate becomes a genuine pure tossup with the possibility of a huge Democratic majority.

My, how things change.