NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Frodo]

Is Burr not going to run for re-election?

If so- Burr will be much much tougher to beat than Tillis.  If Jackson has goals for being in the Senate- his shot is most likely 2020, or otherwise 2026. (I don't think anyone will be able to beat Burr at this point.  Haven't seen polls, but it feels like Burr is a lot more popular & stronger candidate now than he was in prior elections.... Seems liked he's sort of reached that threshold that will make him really tough to beat.

He promised in 2016 that if he won (which he did), this term will be his last.  

And if Trump wins re-election in 2020, Senator Burr would be well-advised to keep his promise.  I don't fancy his chances in a Trump midterm year.  Not in a swing state like North Carolina, at any rate.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

[S019]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

I have to imagine the nomination is pretty much his for the taking if he jumps in. No other A-list candidates seem to be biting.

Certaintly a strong candidate

But I don’t see Tillis with any glaring weaknesses, I think Trump will carry Tillis over the top, Senate races are very polarized and NC is still Tilt/Lean R, Tillis is Generic R and this helps in a state like NC, if the Dem carries NC, they will carry Jackson across the finish lind

[MT Treasurer]

This race is arguably as close to a pure Tossup as you could possibly get. While Trump is probably slightly favored in NC in 2020, the Democrats's ground game here is pretty strong and Tillis is a fairly weak incumbent with incredibly poor approval numbers. He really can’t afford to underperform Trump by more than 2-3%, if that. NC is really where things start to get interesting after relatively certain pick-ups in CO, AZ, and AL. I concur with Mizzouian that the Democratic path to a majority definitely runs through NC, with GA, MT, MI, and TX as likely tipping point states IMO, but I don’t think IA and ME are as competitive as people are making them out to be, at least not at this point in time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a better pickup in case no one challenges Collins or Ernst. But, clearly IA is still a pickup opportunity

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I read up on this guy. Shades of Connor Lamb, a good looking young guy who's an accomplished veteran and very effective fundraiser and campaigner. He's been compared to Beto for his campaign skills. Also would have a shot at being the first Millennial Senator.

Definitely hoping he gets in!

[HarrisonL]

I believe Iowa and North Carolina are both good targets for us, but I see Iowa as more winnable, even though North Carolina will be more competitive in the Presidential Race, simply because we have a larger bench in Iowa to choose from.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe Iowa and North Carolina are both good targets for us, but I see Iowa as more winnable, even though North Carolina will be more competitive in the Presidential Race, simply because we have a larger bench in Iowa to choose from.

More candidates does not mean more good candidates. If Trump wins Iowa by double digits, there's no way Joni Ernst loses barring a breathtaking scandal. Also, Ernst is much more popular than Tillis and will almost certainly run ahead of Trump. Tillis may very well run behind Trump.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I believe Iowa and North Carolina are both good targets for us, but I see Iowa as more winnable, even though North Carolina will be more competitive in the Presidential Race, simply because we have a larger bench in Iowa to choose from.

More candidates does not mean more good candidates. If Trump wins Iowa by double digits, there's no way Joni Ernst loses barring a breathtaking scandal. Also, Ernst is much more popular than Tillis and will almost certainly run ahead of Trump. Tillis may very well run behind Trump.

I doubt Trump will win IA by double digits this time (though he'll probably still win it).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Beto or Tim Ryan is on ticket Dems will take IA and win with w72; IA, OH and Va is very much 270 strategy.

[Pollster]

I would imagine Jackson announces after the special elections, especially since his current State Senate seat is based inside NC-09.

[LoneStarDem]

Who do the NC Dems have running for LG ?

[Pollster]

Who do the NC Dems have running for LG ?

Per wikipedia:

Chaz Beasley
Cal Cunningham
Yvonne Holley
Allen Thomas
Terry Van Duyn

Quite a few look very credible.

[Suburbia]

Jackson can beat Tillis 51-47 and could be a Dem White Veep in 2024 or 2028 for a older candidate or a minority presidential candidate

[Roll Roons]

Jackson can beat Tillis 51-47 and could be a Dem White Veep in 2024 or 2028 for a older candidate or a minority presidential candidate

Yeah, Jackson could be like Kander, but in a much less red state. He'd almost certainly outperform the Democratic presidential nominee, which should be enough.

[S019]

Lean R——>Tilt R

Jackson is a strong candidate, but I just don’t really think he’s this unbeatable titan, if the Democrat wins NC, they drag Jackson over the finish line, but I really just don’t see him running that much ahead of the Democrat. I think to be honest, Tillis, Gardner, and McSally, are underrated by this site, and Peters, and especially Shaheen, are overrated. Plus, how much name recognition does Jackson have in North Carolina, he’s also from Charlotte, so not a real geographic advantage. Plus, I just don’t see Tillis being as weak and unpopular as McCrory, especially when North Carolinians are voting on the Trump agenda and not ona transgender bathroom bill that sent businesses out of the state. Plus, NC Democrats seem to have real success in Governor races. But please, let’s stop treating Thom Tillis like he is Elizabeth Dole.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope he is running. He could definitely beat Tillis.

[S019]

Jackson can beat Tillis 51-47 and could be a Dem White Veep in 2024 or 2028 for a older candidate or a minority presidential candidate

Yeah, Jackson could be like Kander, but in a much less red state. He'd almost certainly outperform the Democratic presidential nominee, which should be enough.

The difference is this is NC, not MO, Senate Leadership Fund, NRSC, Club for Growth, etc., will spend millions here painting Jackson as a liberal, also Senate races are more polarized than Governor races. Tillis should take this seriously, Jackson will come close, but won’t get over the top

[Zaybay]

If Jackson does make the plunge, this race moves automatically to tossup. He’s practically the best candidate Dems could hope for.

[SnowLabrador]

LOL as if those groups weren't trying to paint Kander the same way

This. At first, Missouri wasn't considered to be that competitive of a race, but by election day it was tossup/tilt R.

[S019]

If Jackson does make the plunge, this race moves automatically to tossup. He’s practically the best candidate Dems could hope for.

WRONG, that’s Josh Stein or Roy Cooper, neither of whom, are running

[LoneStarDem]

I'm assuming Tillis will be a 2-termer & retire in 2026.

[Ruby2014]

Dems should nominate Former Congressman Heath Shuler. If Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 Heath Shuler could get some Trump voters to vote for him and still win. If not he should run in 2022 instead which is likelyh to be an open seat. He may have trouble in the primary but a Trump supporter like me would be willing to vote a Blue Dog.

[Ruby2014]

Here’s a brief run down of who I think are the top Democrats with statewide potential. Not all of these names are running for Senate but these are basically all of the big names who have been talked about as candidates.

Senator Jeff Jackson: Seen as the heir-apparent to this seat, Jackson is a popular state senator from Charlotte who has a massive statewide fundraising effort. Jackson campaigned across the state this year for other legislative candidates, presumably to build his name ID. He’s a vet, a former prosecutor, and looks like he’s been building for this run for a long time. Jackson’s negatives are that he’s seen as a bit of a “polished golden boy” by some in the party, and that he’s never faced a competitive race being appointed to his senate seat in a safe blue district.

Fmr. Secretary Anthony Foxx: Former mayor of Charlotte and Obama’s Transportation Secretary. Foxx would be a good candidate but he accepted a job at Lyft a month or so ago, not something he’d do if he was planning on running.

Rep. Brian Turner: Little known state rep from Asheville in the Western part of the state. Turner is a great fundraiser and has ran some incredibly tight races. He won his seat against a powerful Republican incumbent in the red year of 2014 in a district that had voted by almost 20 points for the Republican gubernatorial candidate two years earlier. Turner consistently wins district that’s redder than the state as a whole.

Fmr. Senator John Edwards: John Edwards is probably the strongest can... I can’t write this without laughing, Edwards will not be the nominee unless every other democrat in North Carolina dies. Edwards won’t run, Edwards would lose the primary in an embarrassing land slide if he decided to run. Edwards is not and will not run.

AG. Josh Stein: Incumbent attorney general, all signs point to him running for re-Election and then governor in 2024.

Gov. Roy Cooper: He’s running for re-Election, slight chance he runs in 2022 but no chance he runs this year.

Commissioner Trevor Fuller: Former Chair of the Mecklenburg County Commission, he might be running. Mecklenburg County is the largest in the state and home of the largest city. With Foxx probably out he will most likely be the only non-white male candidate in the race.

Rep. Chaz Beasley: Young African American state House member from Charlotte, he would be a good candidate but NC Insider was reporting he’s running for Lt. Gov.

Sen. Terry Van Duyn: State Senator and minority whip from Asheville, could’ve been a good appeal to suburban white women but running for Lt. Gov instead.

Fmr. Sen. Cal Cunningham: Former state senator and US Senate candidate in 2010. He’s a member of the national guard but he’s running for Lt. Gov.


Basically NC has a pretty deep bench the problem is that they’re almost all white men. Thanks to big wins this year in Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) counties the party now has a lot more young and diverse elected officials, but all of them are too fresh for a statewide race seeing as they haven’t even been sworn in yet. There are plenty of strong candidates on this list and almost any of them would be able to knock off Tillis.

What about Heath Shuler? I'm a Trump supporter but I'd be willing to vote for a Blue Dog like him. He'd have trouble in the primary but could win a general election.

[Vern]

If he runs, he will win. Jackson is the perfect Democrat for NC.