KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[ON Progressive]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

[DINGO Joe]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too. 

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Discuss with maps:
Kelly Loeffler vs. Amy McGrath. You pick the running mates.

Karen Handel and Liberal Obama Mimes are the running-mates.

[DINGO Joe]

I will say that Fayette is now up to 75000 returned mail ballots (no data on D-R split) so that's probably a modest data point in Booker's favor. 

[n1240]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

[ON Progressive]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

[DINGO Joe]

If McGrath wins 2/3rds of the state by 20 pts, then Booker would have to win the other third by 40 to pull even.

[n1240]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

Considering her strength in the absentee reporting areas it's possible but not likely of course (would have to win rest of state by 20%). The theoretical Jefferson/Fayette results I mentioned may also be a bit bullish for Booker.

https://twitter.com/Mirandacombs27/status/1276217415110713344

Statewide absentee return went from 68.5% -> 77.1% from yesterday to today. Joe Sonka claimed 161k mail-in absentees from Jefferson, although it's possible the Clerk gave him the combined mail-in + early vote absentee totals.

[NOVA Green]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

Considering her strength in the absentee reporting areas it's possible but not likely of course (would have to win rest of state by 20%). The theoretical Jefferson/Fayette results I mentioned may also be a bit bullish for Booker.

https://twitter.com/Mirandacombs27/status/1276217415110713344

Statewide absentee return went from 68.5% -> 77.1% from yesterday to today. Joe Sonka claimed 161k mail-in absentees from Jefferson, although it's possible the Clerk gave him the combined mail-in + early vote absentee totals.

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

[n1240]

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

Counties that are close to 100% of 2016 vote totals or exceeded 2016 vote totals I'm assuming have already counted absentees: Bath, Carter, Casey, Fleming, Hopkins, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Montgomery, Pulaski, Taylor, Woodford. Davies also has partial absentee count (they seem to have around 50-60% of their absentees counted).

[NOVA Green]

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

Counties that are close to 100% of 2016 vote totals or exceeded 2016 vote totals I'm assuming have already counted absentees: Bath, Carter, Casey, Fleming, Hopkins, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Montgomery, Pulaski, Taylor, Woodford. Davies also has partial absentee count (they seem to have around 50-60% of their absentees counted).

Ok--- thanks!

I suspected it was something like that, but was curious if there were additional sources out there which I wasn't aware of....   

[All Along The Watchtower]

My deepest condolences to whatever sacrificial lamb goes up against Cocaine Mitch's Machine in a year in which Donald Trump is on the ballot. They and their loved ones will be driven through the mud hard. RIP.

[DINGO Joe]

Any guess as to what county will be Booker's third best county?  Maybe Franklin or Warren.  ED vote in  suburban Louisville doesn't look promising and I doubt he had enough recognition in NKY to do well.    ED vote in two military counties (Hardin and Christian) were good for Booker, but again I doubt they'll hold up with the early vote. 

[n1240]

Any guess as to what county will be Booker's third best county?  Maybe Franklin or Warren.  ED vote in  suburban Louisville doesn't look promising and I doubt he had enough recognition in NKY to do well.    ED vote in two military counties (Hardin and Christian) were good for Booker, but again I doubt they'll hold up with the early vote. 

Combination of high AA proportion in Christian + election day vote makes me think it would be his 3rd best there. Still quite possible there is a complete turnaround with the absentee vote though, the election day vote was skewed towards Hopkinsville since it was the only in-person polling place location, and it's where it'd be expected that Booker would do better there than the rest of the county.

Warren may be a possibility as well, not so sure about Franklin considering how well McGrath did in Franklin.

[DINGO Joe]

Fayette says this morning that they've processed 82,666 ballots which is impressive

https://www.lexingtonky.gov/vote

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Joe_Gerth/status/1276506569673498624

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/Joe_Gerth/status/1276506569673498624

Good news for Booker.

[Xing]

Considering how many votes are left to count in Fayette/Jefferson, and the fact that some absentees were sent in during Booker’s surge (not beforehand), I’m starting to think the madman might just do it. Gonna be very close either way.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1276620403214082048

Might be overanalyzing this but it's a bit of an underwhelming result for Booker. The initial Daviess dump was a combination of election day + absentees received before election day. New results include absentees received on election day or after, ideally Booker would want to better with these ballots, but the margin being equal to the countywide result isn't a promising sign, when conventional wisdom was that Booker should be expected to do better on absentees.

Only one county where we have a clear view of late absentee votes thus far, but still not a promising sign for Booker. Of course he will still do very well on Jefferson and Fayette absentees but he definitely won't match the election day margins he racked up in those counties.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1276633551614722060

Booker won election day vote by 5% and then proceeded to be washed out in absentee votes, allowing McGrath to win the county by 30%.

[NOVA Green]

So, while we're still waiting latest compare/contrast of election results reported by the NYT / WaPo.

NYT: Hasn't Updated since Yesterday:




WaPo: Updated a little bit ago today:



So let's do the same thing I did the other day:

1.) Start with the NYT Baseline numbers since they have more counties with results:

Booker= 32,479
McGrath= 29,892

2.) Let's add in the results for Washington Post Counties not included in NYT numbers:

Christian---  755 Booker, 297 McGrath    (1251 TOTAL)
Laurel--       136 Booker  117 McGrath    ( 283 TOTAL)
Letcher-       124 Booker   84 McGrath     (250 TOTAL)
Pike-            209 Booker   192 McGrath   (517 TOTAL)
Woodford-    1449 Booker  2180 McGrath  (4272 TOTAL)
Franklin-        211 Booker   108 McGrath   ( 364 TOTAL)
Bell-              140 Booker   223 McGrath   ( 476 TOTAL)
Lewis-             89 Booker   291 McGRath  ( 430 TOTAL)
Bracken-         79 Booker     87 McGrath   (257 TOTAL)

Booker= + 3,192 Votes      McGrath=   + 3,579     TOTAL= + 8,100 VOTES

3.) The new TOTAL numbers stand at
Booker=  35,671 Votes      McGrath=  33,471 Votes   

4.) Discrepancy Counties:  (Places where the WaPo and NYT numbers do not match (let's assume the highest total vote numbers are more accourate)

NYT Larger:

Edmonson-   NYT= 28 Booker, 61 McGrath     WaPo=   9 Booker, 26 McGrath     ***
Barren-        NYT= 353 Booker, 314 McGrath   WaPo= 310 Booker, 187 McGrath   ***
Scott-         NYT=   600 Booker, 529 McGrath  WaPo=   463 Booker, 425 McGrath   ***
Nicholas-     NYT=     68 Booker,   55 McGrath,  WaPo=   55 Booker, 46 McGrath   ***
Harlan-       NYT=     30 Booker    68 McGrath,  WaPo=   
Jessamine-   NYT=  362 Booker, 198 McGrath   WaPo=   240 Booker, 140 McGrath ***
Mercer-        NYT=   241 Booker, 138 McGrath,  WaPo=  241 Booker, 137 McGrath


WaPo Larger:

Boone-        NYT=   580 Booker,  621 McGRath, WaPo=  581 Booker, 623 McGrath
Campbell-    NYT=    92 Booker,  195 McGrath,  WaPo=   390 Booker, 262 McGrath
Clark-          NYT=   208 Booker  128 McGrath,  WaPo=  284 Booker, 184 McGrath
Greenup     NYT=     60 Booker,  122 McGrath,  WaPo=   105 Booker, 189 McGrath
Perry-         NYT=     59 Booker,   68 McGrath,  WaPo=   148 Booker, 70 McGrath


Errors?

Boyd          NYT=     518 Booker, 692 McGrath Wapo=    469 Booker, 789 McGrath   ??

5.) Let's subtract out from the NYT numbers for counties where WaPo numbers are larger:

Booker loses-    999 Votes      McGrath loses-  1,134 Votes

Booker---   34,672 Votes        McGrath --- 32,337 Votes

6.) Now let's replace those with the WaPo numbers for those Counties

Booker---   +1,508 Votes      McGrath---  +  1,328 Votes


7.) So even if we leave the NYT numbers for Boyd County intact, based upon these two election reporting sources:

Booker= 36,180 Votes         McGrath=   33,665 Votes

Again, this is not touching on Absentee Ballots or anything of that nature, simply the current results we have available...

[NOVA Green]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

[2016]

A little bit strange:

CNN has now updated KY POTUS Primary (unfortunately they don't have the KY-SEN Primary)

They now have Biden at 47,115 Votes; 60.0 %

The NYTimes has him at 42,856 Votes while NBC has him at 40.939 Votes.

If the Vote Count by the Networks is done by Edison Reserach why do they have different Counts?

[DINGO Joe]

Kudos to Daviess Co for not only producing results in a timely manner but also being transparent in explaining what's left to count.  In 2016 Daviess cast 11136 votes in the D primary and are now at  12267 in the Senate race and probably will finish around 12700.

[One Term Floridian]

Booker's winning this