There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.
That was before the big rural R shift, though. The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now. IDK if it's above or below 35%?
30% with super juiced rurals probably gives Smiley a shot.
If she clears 35% in King County (As unlikely as that is). she is the favorite IMO
