WA-SEN (Change Research/NPI): Murray +41 in King County

[wbrocks67]

Murray (D) 68%
Smiley (R) 27%

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2022/11/patty-murray-has-the-support-of-almost-seven-in-ten-voters-in-king-county-npi-poll-finds.html

They add that their statewide poll in October (Murray +10) showed the exact same result in King.

Biden won King 75-22 (+19 statewide)
Inslee won King 74-26 (+14 statewide)
Cantwell won King 74-26 (+17 statewide)

Democrat vote was 76-24 in the primary (+14 statewide)

[Vosem]

They add that their statewide poll in October (Murray +10) showed the exact same result in King.

That's pretty odd because extrapolating this to the statewide figures gets you to D+3, and under fairly reasonable turnout assumptions even a bit worse.

OTOH, county-level polling seems pretty jank, and it looks like relative to normal numbers Republicans have picked up very little, whereas Democrats have bled a lot to undecided. So one could pretty easily imagine Democrats end up doing a lot better even if this poll is completely true.

(But, on the third hand, Change Research has a decent Democratic house effect. And the decision to release a King County poll instead of a WA poll is smelly. Taking this at face value suggests the race is close to tied, or has the slimmest of Murray leads.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a Lean D race due to the state's partisanship. Nonetheless, +41 is a rather disappointing margin for a D in King County in all places...

[Skill and Chance]

This is a Lean D race due to the state's partisanship. Nonetheless, +41 is a rather disappointing margin for a D in King County in all places...

Quite a lot of evidence now of Dems falling back from Trump era numbers in the big cities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a Lean D race due to the state's partisanship. Nonetheless, +41 is a rather disappointing margin for a D in King County in all places...

Quite a lot of evidence now of Dems falling back from Trump era numbers in the big cities.

Very marginally, yes, that's inarguable. Trump-era margins were probably unsustainable anyway.

[Crumpets]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

[Skill and Chance]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

[RI]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

Yeah, I'd say 35% is a better benchmark now. If you really juiced rural/exurban margins, you could probably squeak by with 33% or so.

[It’s so Joever]

Polls always underestimate margins in uncompetitive areas. This is why NY Gov and OK Gov are not competitive btw.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

Yeah, I'd say 35% is a better benchmark now. If you really juiced rural/exurban margins, you could probably squeak by with 33% or so.

Smiley at 32% would still run short of this. Smiley, despite her excellent campaign, is running headlong against the state's partisanship. I don't see this flipping when all votes are counted...

[Crumpets]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

Yeah, I'd say 35% is a better benchmark now. If you really juiced rural/exurban margins, you could probably squeak by with 33% or so.

Looking at the two closest statewide elections in 2020 - Secretary of State and State Treasurer - you're right about it falling below 40%, but I probably wouldn't go quite that low. Secretary of State was R+7.3 statewide, and Wyman got 41.4% in King County. State Treasurer was D+6.9 statewide, and Davidson got 32.4% in King Country. This is very unprecise, but going by universal shift, a 50-50 statewide result translates to 37.8% as Wyman's benchmark in King County and 35.9% as Davidson's. Even taking into account more urban-rural polarization since 2020, I think a benchmark as low as 35% is an absolute best-case scenario for Republicans and they should still really be shooting for at least 38%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

Yeah, I'd say 35% is a better benchmark now. If you really juiced rural/exurban margins, you could probably squeak by with 33% or so.

Looking at the two closest statewide elections in 2020 - Secretary of State and State Treasurer - you're right about it falling below 40%, but I probably wouldn't go quite that low. Secretary of State was R+7.3 statewide, and Wyman got 41.4% statewide. State Treasurer was D+6.9 statewide, and Davidson got 32.4% in King Country. This is very unprecise, but going by universal shift, a 50-50 statewide result translates to 37.8% as Wyman's benchmark in King County and 35.9% as Davidson's. Even taking into account more urban-rural polarization since 2020, I think 35% as a benchmark is an absolute best-case scenario for Republicans and they should still really be shooting for at least 38%.

I can agree with this.
Fact remains that WA is a hard state for Rs in general. Ds can do sub-optimally in whole regions and still expect to win in a close race.

[OriAr]

There's long been a rule of thumb that a Republican candidate can't win in Washington unless they hit 40% in King Country. If Smiley is at 27%, or if we're very generous, give her all the undecideds, and she's at 32%, then her only path is to put up truly unprecedented numbers across the board elsewhere in the state. I don't see that happening.

That was before the big rural R shift, though.  The number in King for an R to win statewide is almost surely down in the 30's now.  IDK if it's above or below 35%?

30% with super juiced rurals probably gives Smiley a shot.
If she clears 35% in King County (As unlikely as that is). she is the favorite IMO

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This implies that Murray will win WA by high single digits, which is a bit underwhelming but also outside of what I consider competitive.

The worst case scenario would be something like in what happened in NJ last year if undecideds lean Smiley.

[Crumpets]

Murray currently +49 in King County - 74.39% to Smiley's 25.39%. Looks like even non-Trumpy Republicans have lost whatever inroads they still had not just in the city but in the burbs too.