Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[OBD]

It's a foregone conclusion that the GOP packs the 6th and creates 4 solidly Democratic districts in Atlanta, while also cracking the remaining suburban territory among the northern seats. Really, the only points of contention are how messy the new Atlanta districts get, and the SWGA AA seat. Personally, I think splitting it is a bad bet for the GOP, as they could get taken to court for splitting the 'African-American community of interest' that the 2nd district serves. While they may create another AA/minority district in Cobb and Gwinnett, it doesn't change the fact that they're splitting up AA communities in the Southwest that logically should be in the same district. What they could do is make the 2nd more competitive, while keeping it a VRA district.

[OBD]

Here's my first take on a light GOP gerrymander of Georgia in light of the Senate elections.

1st District: Still held by Buddy Carter. Moves slightly right from Trump+15 to Trump+20 in 2016, and should be an easy hold for the GOP even in wave elections. In terms of geography, the district loses part of Savannah and slides further into ruby-red rural areas.

2nd District: This district is no longer VRA and loses Columbus and Albany, becoming an open seat. Sliding up into the fringes of Atlanta, this seat is now Trump+20 and should be safely Republican for the decade.

3rd District: Drew Ferguson's district sinks Columbus and takes in some of Atlanta's southwestern suburbs (though the bluest part of unfavorably-trending Fayette County isn't in the district). As a result, it moves leftward to Trump+28 and Kemp+27, but regardless it should hold for Republicans unless Atlanta and Columbus careen leftward.

4th District: Dem Sink stays Dem Sink. Extends further out to put all of Rockdale, Newton, and Henry counties in D sinks.

5th District: Loses some of Atlanta to sink D-trending Henry County. Still Titanium D.

6th District: McBath gets drawn out of this now Safe D district, which sinks northern Fulton and DeKalb counties. It's Clinton +20 and is essentially flip-proof.

7th District: Carolyn Bordeaux's district is now essentially within Gwinnet County, and moves to Clinton+15. Safe D.

8th District: This Trump+22, Kemp+23 district shifts leftward (geographically and politically) to help sink Sanford Bishop, who is now double-bunked with Austin Scott. While Bishop is a stronger-than-average D candidate, he should fall in a district that's both less African-American (38%), significantly more Republican, and with another entrenched incumbent.

9th District: Andrew Clyde and Jody Hice switch districts to avoid further baconing East Georgia. Hice's new district contracts inward relative to the old 9th - in addition to retaining Gainesville, it sheds rural Northeastern Georgia for Forsyth County, Barrow County (Hice's home county), and scraps of Fulton and Gwinnet Counties. While this district seems dangerously suburban at first, most of the bluer parts are in either the 6th or 7th districts, and the district is still Trump+42 and Kemp+38. It should hold for the decade.

10th District: Clyde's new district picks up most of aforementioned Northeastern Georgia, and takes an arm into Augusta to help keep Rick Allen safe (doubt Allen complains as the parts of Augusta that are removed are heavily African-American and thus are probably not part of his base). This is probably the most aesthetically awkward part of the map, though. Regardless, this is a Trump+24 seat (a slight downgrade from the previous district), but should be safely Republican for the decade.

11th District: Barry Loudermilk's district reconfigures to take in more favorable parts of suburban Atlanta, and moves rightward to Trump +33 accordingly. While this district was only Kemp +28, it's still a very hard lift for Dems going forward and should be relatively secure. If needed, Cobb County can be swapped out with some of the 14th district to shore it up further though that makes the map uglier.

12th District: Rick Allen's new district exchanges some unfavorable Albany precincts for some unfavorable Savannah precincts, but otherwise remains similar. It also moves rightward to Trump+22 in 2016, protecting the seat from all but the most ridiculous Democratic waves. Allen should hold this seat for as long as he wants.

13th District: McBath and Scott are both drawn in here, and if McBath doesn't feel like carpetbagging this could create a primary battle that could go national thanks to Scott's relative conservatism. Regardless, as the third of the trio of Atlanta AA VRA seats, it's Safe D.

14th District: MTG's seat stays mostly unaltered, and is accordingly Safe R.

The aftermath of all this is a pretty solid 9-5, as Republicans gain one outstate seat while sacrificing five Atlanta sinks.

[OBD]

Isn't the consensus that the 2nd wasn't VRA-required, though?

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b6fab0e1-145a-4a48-94ec-42eef42dcdca

Here's my race/partisanship-free map, which only has 3 non-forced county splits for population equality. Some districts are shaped a little oddly to keep counties whole, but otherwise it's a pretty nice-looking map. It also keeps Atlanta and most other cities whole.

In terms of partisanship, this is an 8 Trump - 6 Clinton map, with the 10th district flipping in 2018 and 2020.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b6fab0e1-145a-4a48-94ec-42eef42dcdca

Here's my race/partisanship-free map, which only has 3 non-forced county splits for population equality. Some districts are shaped a little oddly to keep counties whole, but otherwise it's a pretty nice-looking map. It also keeps Atlanta and most other cities whole.

In terms of partisanship, this is an 8 Trump - 6 Clinton map, with the 10th district flipping in 2018 and 2020.

Can't tell but looks like you split Oconee county and Athens.

Is that a COI? I mainly did that for county integrity.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b17f0e6b-85c8-4bb6-a402-572df29fa52a

Here's my answer to Blairite's concerns. It's a little snippier with counties and the 3rd district is kind of cursed, but it does do the South Atlanta COI Blairite suggested and keeps most districts pretty neat. If the map-drawers pushed the 13th north, it would be VRA compliant. 

As for partisanship, it's a 5D-7R-2S map, with the 11th and 2nd districts (Trump+0.4 and Trump+5 respectively) as the swing seats.

[OBD]

Good point. I was a little apprehensive about splitting Houston but that district definitely makes sense.

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

Post the link of your map with those 4 districts for a template.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/05e011cf-ac5d-4549-91e0-ab6c9b580b15

Here's the link!

[OBD]

On that note, I think this might be the ideal downstate alignment with Sol's new district. The only county split is the Houston County one, and the seats here are all pretty sensical and cohesive. The northern boundary of the 12th could potentially get adjusted to accommodate other districts, though.

agreed. that’s almost exactly the same as my map, just a few diferences in counties between 1-8-12. also just a reminder that your map uses 2016 numbers, so 2, 8, and 12 are going to have to expand considerably with the 2020 census count

Yeah, obviously the calculus with county split-less maps is going to change once the new census maps come out.