Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (user search)
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  Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion  (Read 66363 times)
Water Hazard
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Posts: 68


« on: January 25, 2020, 01:05:46 AM »

Made this 11-3 a while ago using a 2020 population estimates file:

https://imgur.com/a/jJVtETF
https://imgur.com/a/PWg4cXt (ATL close-up)

2016 Results:

1: Trump +15.4
2: Trump +19.1
3: Trump +28.3
4: Clinton +61.8
5: Clinton +74.3
6: Trump +24.0
7: Trump +24.3
8: Trump +16.6
9: Trump +27.0
10: Trump +24.5
11: Trump +23.3
12: Trump +15.8
13: Clinton +62.2
14: Trump +33.9

I really don't see any of these Trump districts being vulnerable. The four closest ones are all in southern GA and trending R. Of course, this assumes unpacking Bishop's district is acceptable. 4 and 5 are low 50s BVAP, while 13 is in the upper 50s- if that ends up being too high, I'm sure you could shuffle a few precincts around and remedy it fairly easily.

I think the obstacles to 11-3 (or 10-4, if the current 2nd must be maintained) next decade are political considerations (incumbent homes and territory preferences, etc.) and VRA challenges, not mathematical infeasibility or "dummymander potential." That's not to say a 4th ATL D seat isn't possible if the legislature would rather satisfy other priorities, but from a partisan standpoint I don't see much of a need for any D districts beyond the VRA-mandated ones.
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