Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[beesley]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

Because I'm a pedantic a$$hole, I have to point out that they're called MHAs in Newfoundland

Anyway, Newfoundland is prone to some wild swings, so expect the unexpected tonight.

I've clearly been reading too much about my beloved British Columbia.

[lilTommy]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

Because I'm a pedantic a$$hole, I have to point out that they're called MHAs in Newfoundland

Anyway, Newfoundland is prone to some wild swings, so expect the unexpected tonight.

NDP Sweep!! ... of all... ugh 14 riding's!

CBC has a news story about the election, depressing, basically no one interviewed liked anyone running, no one is talking realistic, etc etc... wondering if we might see a fairly low turn out?

[RogueBeaver]

thread https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1129152598454480896

[LabourJersey]

When can we start expecting results?

[BigSkyBob]

When can we start expecting results?

25LIB-13PC-2IND-1NDP  very early.

[Shilly]

Results are available here.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/newfoundland-labrador/2019/results/

Good amount counted already. Liberals ahead so far.

[136or142]

Live Stream
https://www.cbc.ca/news/n-l-election-night-special-live-1.5134291

It's early yet, but it looks like the polls have, for the first time in a while, overstated the support for the conservative party.

[136or142]

Hrm, what if they held an election, and (almost) nobody on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum cared?

[136or142]

I'm calling it now, if the Liberals win this election it will be because Ches Crosbie and the P.Cs opposed the carbon tax.

[136or142]

Was the Liberals running former NDP MLA George Murphy against Alison Coffin the equivalent of the Liberals recruiting high profile Canadian Eric Kierans to run against Robert Cliche?

[136or142]

Gerry Byrne right now on the CBC making the loony conspiracy theory that the mainstream polling outlets were engaged in 'push polls' and even accusing them of being associated with NL Strong.

I don't think much of the Forum Polls, and it appears they finally had a final election poll that wasn't that close, but Gerry Byrne, if he actually believes what he said, is insane.

[136or142]

Alison Coffin now ahead by 4 votes!

Alison Coffin is now ahead by 72 votes and the New Democrat in Labrador West is only down by 50+ votes. It seems the New Democrats are doing better with the vote today than with the advanced vote.

[136or142]

CBC now projects a "Liberal Government"

[136or142]

New Democrat Jordan Brown trailing in Labrador West by 8 votes with 2 polls to report.

[ON Progressive]

New Democrat Jordan Brown trailing in Labrador West by 8 votes with 2 polls to report.

Jordan Brown has a 5 vote win, but that'll go to a recount.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labrador West is an NDP gain by fives, taking their total to three seats and potentially denying the Liberals a majority.

[136or142]

New Democrat Jordan Brown trailing in Labrador West by 8 votes with 2 polls to report.

Jordan Brown has a 5 vote win, but that'll go to a recount.

The NDP did well in Labrador West in 2015.

Alison Coffin now leads by over 100 votes, last time I saw the result.  

[136or142]

Labrador West is an NDP gain by fives, taking their total to three seats and potentially denying the Liberals a majority.

The two independents are former Liberal MLAs (one of them was a P.C in the 2011 election and then ran as a Liberal in 2015.)  I'd assume the Liberals would try to get at least one of these back in the fold.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

New Democrat Jordan Brown trailing in Labrador West by 8 votes with 2 polls to report.

Jordan Brown has a 5 vote win, but that'll go to a recount.

The NDP did well in Labrador West in 2015.

Alison Coffin now leads by over 100 votes, last time I saw the result.  

170, with 29/46 polls reporting.

[136or142]

This looks like it could be similar but opposite to the 2017 Nova Scotia election where the Liberals ended up with a narrow majority but started the night in a minority position and gained as more votes were counted.  Here the Liberals have dropped in seats as the count went on.

[136or142]

Liberals down to 20 seats.  Maybe they can get one of the two independents to become the Speaker. 

A good news for the Liberals is that Liberal Elvis Loveless has won in Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune.  Elvis has entered the Assembly!

[VPH]

Insane swing in Torngat Mountains wow. Small number of votes is part of the story there.

[136or142]

Insane swing in Torngat Mountains wow. Small number of votes is part of the story there.

On the CBC they said that voters there were unhappy that Randy Edmunds no longer had a home in the riding.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/jamespmcleod/status/1129187329623519232

[Tintrlvr]

Interesting that the NDP appears to have won three seats (assuming they hold on to Labrador West in the recount) but came in second in only one other, and only by default (Waterford Valley, where there was no Tory candidate).